Pending home sales are down and new listings are flat during a time of year when they typically rise. But this week’s softer-than-expected inflation report sent mortgage rates down, which could bring back some homebuyers and sellers.
(NASDAQ: RDFN) —Pending home sales fell 4.3% from a year earlier during the four weeks ending May 12, the biggest decline in roughly three months. That’s according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. Pending home sales also posted a week-over-week decline, unusual for early May.
Inventory is losing momentum, too, as would-be sellers stay put to hang onto their low mortgage rate. New listings rose 10% year over year, but they were essentially flat from a week earlier, which is significant because listings typically increase this time of year.
The housing market slumped because of sky-high housing costs. The median U.S. home-sale price is up 4.7% year over year to a record $386,951, and the median monthly mortgage payment is sitting at $2,858, just $26 shy of the all-time high set in April. But affordability is starting to improve a bit: Daily average mortgage rates have steadily declined since the start of May, and this week’s slightly softer-than-expected inflation report sent rates below 7% for the first time in over five weeks. And 6.3% of home sellers are dropping their price, on average, the highest share in a year and a half, which may mean price growth loses momentum soon.
“High prices and rates are challenging, but there are ways for buyers to take advantage of the somewhat slow market,” said Marsha McMahon-Jones, a Redfin Premier agent in Palm Springs, CA. “Sellers know that high mortgage rates mean they should expect negotiations, expect offers to come in under list price, and be ready for some back and forth on things like repairs and closing costs. Buyers may not be able to get a lower mortgage rate, but they’re often getting homes for slightly less than the asking price. It’s also a good time to buy a fixer-upper at a lower price point because those aren’t selling as quickly.”
For Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, including more on how current financial events are impacting mortgage rates, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.
Leading indicators
Indicators of homebuying demand and activity |
||||
|
Value (if applicable) |
Recent change |
Year-over-year change |
Source |
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate |
6.99% (May 15) |
Down from a 5-month high of 7.52% three weeks earlier |
Up from 6.55% |
Mortgage News Daily |
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate |
7.09% (week ending May 9) |
Down from 5-month high of 7.22% a week earlier |
Up from 6.35% |
Freddie Mac |
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted) |
|
Declined 2% from a week earlier (as of week ending May 10) |
Down 14% |
Mortgage Bankers Association |
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted) |
|
Lowest level in 2 months (as of week ending May 12) |
Down 13% |
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents |
Touring activity |
|
Up 5% from the start of the year (as of May 13) |
At this time last year, it was up 21% from the start of 2023 |
ShowingTime, a home touring technology company |
Google searches for “home for sale” |
|
Down 8% from a month earlier (as of May 13) |
Down 15% |
Google Trends |
Key housing-market data
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending May 12, 2024 Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision. |
|||
|
Four weeks ending May 12, 2024 |
Year-over-year change |
Notes |
Median sale price |
$386,951 |
4.7% |
All-time high |
Median asking price |
$418,455 |
6.6% |
All-time high |
Median monthly mortgage payment |
$2,858 at a 7.09% mortgage rate |
12.7% |
Just $26 below all-time high set during the 4 weeks ending April 28 |
Pending sales |
90,457 |
-4.3% |
Biggest decline since 4 weeks ending Feb. 25 |
New listings |
102,269 |
10% |
|
Active listings |
890,224 |
14.2% |
|
Months of supply |
3.2 |
+0.5 pts. |
4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions |
Share of homes off market in two weeks |
45.2% |
Down from 49% |
|
Median days on market |
33 |
+2 days |
|
Share of homes sold above list price |
30.8% |
Down from 33% |
|
Share of homes with a price drop |
6.3% |
+2 pts. |
Highest level since Nov. 2022 |
Average sale-to-list price ratio |
99.4% |
Unchanged |
|
Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending May 12, 2024 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy. |
|||
|
Metros with biggest year-over-year increases |
Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases |
Notes |
Median sale price |
Detroit (18.8%) Anaheim, CA (18.6%) West Palm Beach, FL (16.2%) San Jose, CA (13.6%) Newark, NJ (11.7%) |
San Antonio (-0.5%)
|
Declined in just 1 metro |
Pending sales |
San Jose, CA (16.6%) Anaheim, CA (9.2%) San Francisco (5.3%) Newark, NJ (5.2%) Sacramento, CA (3%) |
Phoenix (-14.9%) Atlanta (-13.6%) Houston (-13.2%) West Palm Beach, FL (-11.8%) Nashville, TN (-11.1%) |
Increased in 15 metros |
New listings |
San Jose, CA (40.2%) Seattle (26.4%) Phoenix (24.7%) Oakland, CA (24.6%) Montgomery County, PA (21.9%) |
Chicago (-8.1%) Atlanta (-3.4%) Detroit (-3.1%) Virginia Beach, VA (-1.9%) Newark, NJ (-1.6%) Warren, MI (-1.1%) |
Declined in 6 metros |
To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-mortgage-rates-dip-sales-decline
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people.
Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and WalkScore®.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin's press center, click here.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240516365280/en/
Contacts
Redfin Journalist Services:
Kenneth Applewhaite, 206-414-8880
press@redfin.com
