10-Q
 


SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

 
 
 

FORM 10-Q

 
 
 

Quarterly Report Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the

Securities Exchange Act of 1934

 
 

For the Quarterly Period Ended
March 31, 2006

Commission File
No. 1-13653

 
 

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.

 
 

Incorporated under
the Laws of Ohio

 IRS Employer I.D.
No. 31-1544320

   
   

One East Fourth Street, Cincinnati, Ohio 45202

(513) 579-2121

 
 
 
 
 
 

       Indicate by check mark whether the Registrant (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of
the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months, and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements
for the past 90 days. Yes   X      No       

 

       Indicate by check mark whether the Registrant is a large accelerated filer, an accelerated filer, or a non-accelerated filer:
                          Large Accelerated Filer   X        Accelerated Filer             Non-Accelerated Filer       

 

       Indicate by check mark whether the Registrant is a shell company. Yes          No   X  

 

       As of May 1, 2006, there were 78,541,477 shares of the Registrant's Common Stock outstanding, excluding
9,953,392 shares owned by a subsidiary.

 

 

 

 


AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

 

 

 

Page 

Part I - Financial Information

 

  Item 1 - Financial Statements:

 

                Consolidated Balance Sheet

2 

                Consolidated Statement of Earnings

3 

                Consolidated Statement of Changes in Shareholders' Equity

4 

                Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows

5 

                Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements

6 

  Item  2 - Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition

 

            and Results of Operations

17 

  Item  3 - Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosure of Market Risk

27 

  Item  4 - Controls and Procedures

27 

   

Part II - Other Information

 

  Item  6 - Exhibits

28 

  Signature

29 

   

                                                               

 
   

 

 

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

PART I

ITEM I - FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES

CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET (unaudited)

(Dollars In Thousands)

 

March 31,

December 31,

 

       2006 

       2005 

Assets:

   

  Cash and cash equivalents

$   565,232 

$   471,849 

  Investments:

   

   Fixed maturities:

   

    Available for sale - at fair value

   

    (amortized cost - $14,617,054 and $14,272,314)

14,407,454 

14,326,614 

    Trading - at fair value

279,649 

271,851 

   Other stocks - at fair value

   

    (cost - $521,286 and $501,459)

595,186 

556,659 

   Policy loans

254,567 

258,744 

   Real estate and other investments

    345,914 

    338,254 

       Total cash and investments

16,448,002 

16,223,971 

  Recoverables from reinsurers and prepaid

   

   reinsurance premiums

3,130,473 

3,263,128 

  Agents' balances and premiums receivable

554,337 

574,882 

  Deferred policy acquisition costs

1,166,357 

1,139,515 

  Other receivables

370,205 

388,078 

  Variable annuity assets (separate accounts)

673,441 

643,506 

  Prepaid expenses, deferred charges and other assets

399,566 

416,030 

  Goodwill

    166,882 

    166,882 

     
 

$22,909,263 

$22,815,992 

     

Liabilities and Capital:

   

  Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses

$ 5,794,333 

$ 5,790,709 

  Unearned premiums

1,699,158 

1,643,954 

  Annuity benefits accumulated

8,706,174 

8,417,298 

  Life, accident and health reserves

922,949 

1,088,016 

  Payable to reinsurers

294,637 

298,664 

  Long-term debt

914,455 

999,703 

  Variable annuity liabilities (separate accounts)

673,441 

643,506 

  Accounts payable, accrued expenses and other 

   

    liabilities

  1,202,273 

  1,215,490 

        Total liabilities

20,207,420 

20,097,340 

     

  Minority interest

252,818 

261,110 

     

  Shareholders' Equity:

   

    Common Stock, no par value

   

      - 200,000,000 shares authorized

   

      - 78,482,208 and 78,067,514 shares outstanding

78,482 

78,068 

    Capital surplus

1,208,901 

1,194,600 

    Retained earnings

1,224,842 

1,134,074 

    Unrealized gain (loss) on marketable securities, net

    (63,200)

     50,800 

        Total shareholders' equity

  2,449,025 

  2,457,542 

     
 

$22,909,263 

$22,815,992 

2

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES

CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF EARNINGS (unaudited)

(In Thousands, Except Per Share Data)

 

Three months ended   

 

      March 31,       

 

2006 

2005 

Income:

   

  Property and casualty insurance premiums

$579,084 

$549,099 

  Life, accident and health premiums

82,043 

92,056 

  Investment income

231,903 

214,207 

  Realized gains (losses) on securities

29,812 

(5,539)

  Other income

  74,769 

  82,160 

 

997,611 

931,983 

Costs and Expenses:

   

  Property and casualty insurance:

   

    Losses and loss adjustment expenses

337,111 

348,378 

    Commissions and other underwriting expenses

173,336 

158,891 

  Annuity benefits

83,275 

80,762 

  Life, accident and health benefits

67,164 

68,971 

  Annuity and supplemental insurance acquisition expenses

33,024 

35,272 

  Interest charges on borrowed money

18,500 

19,580 

  Other operating and general expenses

 116,131 

 115,807 

 828,541 

 827,661 

     

Operating earnings before income taxes

169,070 

104,322 

Provision for income taxes

  59,332 

  35,131 

     

Net operating earnings

109,738 

69,191 

     

Minority interest expense

(7,778)

(5,872)

Equity in net losses of investee, net of tax

    (450)

    (444)

     

Net Earnings

$101,510 

$ 62,875 

     

Earnings per Common Share:

   

  Basic

$1.30 

$.82 

  Diluted

$1.27 

$.81 

     

Average number of Common Shares:

   

  Basic

78,251 

76,738 

  Diluted

79,599 

77,824 

Cash dividends per Common Share

$.1375 

$.125 

3

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES

CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY (unaudited)

(Dollars in Thousands)

 

   

Common Stock 

 

Unrealized 

 
 

Common 

and Capital 

Retained 

Gain (Loss) 

 
 

    Shares 

     Surplus 

  Earnings 

on Securities 

     Total 

Balance at January 1, 2006

78,067,514 

$1,272,668 

$1,134,074 

$ 50,800 

$2,457,542 

           

Net earnings

-    

-    

101,510 

-    

101,510 

Change in unrealized

-    

-    

-    

(114,000)

  (114,000)

  Comprehensive income (loss)

       

(12,490)

           

Dividends on Common Stock

-    

-    

(10,742)

-    

(10,742)

Shares issued:

         

  Exercise of stock options

331,770 

10,555 

-    

-    

10,555 

  Dividend reinvestment plan

35,051 

1,275 

-    

-    

1,275 

  Employee stock purchase plan

5,765 

225 

-    

-    

225 

  Deferred compensation distributions

42,108 

1,646 

-    

-    

1,646 

Stock-based compensation expense

-    

1,455 

-    

-    

1,455 

Capital transactions of subsidiaries

-    

209 

-    

-    

209 

Other

      -    

      (650)

      -    

    -    

      (650)

           

Balance at March 31, 2006

78,482,208 

$1,287,383 

$1,224,842 

($ 63,200)

$2,449,025 

           
           
           
           
           

Balance at January 1, 2005

76,634,204 

$1,222,507 

$  976,340 

$231,700 

$2,430,547 

           

Net earnings

-    

-    

62,875 

-    

62,875 

Change in unrealized

-    

-    

-    

(131,400)

  (131,400)

  Comprehensive income (loss)

       

(68,525)

           

Dividends on Common Stock

-    

-    

(9,580)

-    

(9,580)

Shares issued:

         

  Exercise of stock options

571,308 

14,906 

-    

-    

14,906 

  Dividend reinvestment plan

49,902 

1,438 

-    

-    

1,438 

  Employee stock purchase plan

6,432 

198 

-    

-    

198 

  Retirement plan contributions

35,896 

1,104 

-    

-    

1,104 

  Deferred compensation distributions

7,374 

222 

-    

-    

222 

Shares tendered in option exercises

(339,411)

(5,414)

(4,999)

-    

(10,413)

Capital transactions of subsidiaries

-    

(724)

-    

-    

(724)

Other

      -    

      (210)

      -    

    -    

      (210)

           

Balance at March 31, 2005

76,965,705 

$1,234,027 

$1,024,636 

$100,300 

$2,358,963 

           
           

 

 

4

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES

CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS (UNAUDITED)

(In Thousands)

 

  Three months ended    

 

        March 31,        

 

2006 

2005 

Operating Activities:

  Net earnings

$  101,510 

$   62,875 

  Adjustments:

   

    Equity in net losses of investee

450 

444 

    Minority interest

7,778 

5,872 

    Depreciation and amortization

35,145 

49,120 

    Annuity benefits

83,275 

80,762 

    Realized (gains) losses on investing activities

(36,811)

2,941 

    Net purchases/sales of trading securities

(14,287)

5,020 

    Deferred annuity and life policy acquisition costs

(27,277)

(33,760)

    Decrease in reinsurance and other receivables

213,347 

333,603 

    Decrease in other assets

68,300 

17,334 

    Increase (decrease) in insurance claims and reserves

62,828 

(56,501)

    Decrease in payable to reinsurers

(4,330)

(201,744)

    Increase (decrease) in other liabilities

(47,667)

19,822 

    Other, net

     4,963 

     4,833 

      Net cash provided by operating activities

   447,224 

   290,621 

     

Investing Activities:

   

  Purchases of and additional investments in:

   

    Fixed maturity investments

(1,063,005)

(1,710,026)

    Equity securities

(63,693)

(63,643)

    Subsidiary

(1,246)

-    

    Real estate, property and equipment

(6,615)

(4,233)

  Maturities and redemptions of fixed maturity

   

    investments

291,436 

241,082 

  Sales of:

   

    Fixed maturity investments

409,231 

820,199 

    Equity securities

55,075 

26,493 

    Subsidiary

37,500 

-    

    Real estate, property and equipment

23,854 

3,856 

  Cash and cash equivalents of businesses

   

    acquired or sold, net

99,960 

-    

  Decrease (increase) in other investments

    21,733 

      (796)

    Net cash used in investing activities

  (195,770)

  (687,068)

     

Financing Activities:

   

  Fixed annuity receipts

220,261 

266,521 

  Annuity surrenders, benefits and withdrawals

(294,286)

(224,260)

  Net transfers from variable annuity assets

4,056 

256 

  Additional long-term borrowings

26,197 

100 

  Reductions of long-term debt

(116,771)

(14,626)

  Issuances of Common Stock

10,506 

3,351 

  Subsidiary's issuance of stock in public offering

-   

40,444 

  Cash dividends paid on Common Stock

(9,467)

(8,142)

  Other, net

     1,433 

    (1,548)

    Net cash provided by (used in) financing activities

  (158,071)

    62,096 

     

Net Increase (Decrease) in Cash and Cash Equivalents

93,383 

(334,351)

     

Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period

   471,849 

   861,742 

     

Cash and cash equivalents at end of period

$  565,232 

$  527,391 

5

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

_________________________________________________________________________________

INDEX TO NOTES

    A.

Accounting Policies

E.

Long-Term Debt

    B.

Acquisitions and Sales of

F.

Shareholders' Equity

 

Subsidiaries

G.

Commitments and Contingencies

    C.

Segments of Operations

H.

Subsequent Events

    D.

Deferred Policy Acquisition Costs

   

________________________________________________________________________________

  1. Accounting Policies
  2. Basis of Presentation  The accompanying consolidated financial statements for American Financial Group, Inc. ("AFG") and subsidiaries are unaudited; however, management believes that all adjustments (consisting only of normal recurring accruals unless otherwise disclosed herein) necessary for fair presentation have been made. The results of operations for interim periods are not necessarily indicative of results to be expected for the year. The financial statements have been prepared in accordance with the instructions to Form 10-Q and therefore do not include all information and footnotes necessary to be in conformity with generally accepted accounting principles.

    Certain reclassifications have been made to prior years to conform to the current year's presentation. All significant intercompany balances and transactions have been eliminated. All acquisitions have been treated as purchases. The results of operations of companies since their formation or acquisition are included in the consolidated financial statements.

    The preparation of the financial statements requires management to make estimates and assumptions that affect the amounts reported in the financial statements and accompanying notes. Changes in circumstances could cause actual results to differ materially from those estimates.

    Investments  Fixed maturity securities and equity securities classified as "available for sale" are reported at fair value with unrealized gains and losses reported as a separate component of shareholders' equity. Fixed maturities classified as "trading" are reported at fair value with changes in unrealized holding gains or losses during the period included in investment income. Loans receivable are carried primarily at the aggregate unpaid balance. Premiums and discounts on fixed maturity securities are amortized using the interest method; mortgage-backed securities are amortized over a period based on estimated future principal payments, including prepayments. Prepayment assumptions are reviewed periodically and adjusted to reflect actual prepayments and changes in expectations.

    Gains or losses on securities are determined on the specific identification basis. When a decline in the value of a specific investment is considered to be other than temporary, a provision for impairment is charged to earnings (included in realized gains (losses)) and the cost basis of that investment is reduced.

    Derivatives  Derivatives included in AFG's Balance Sheet consist primarily of (i) the interest component of certain life reinsurance contracts (included in other liabilities), (ii) interest rate swaps (included in debt), and (iii) the equity-based component of certain annuity products (included in annuity benefits accumulated) and related call options (included in other investments) designed to be consistent with the characteristics of the liabilities and used to mitigate the risk embedded in those annuity products. Changes in the fair value of derivatives are included in current earnings.

    6

    AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

    NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS - CONTINUED

     

    The terms of the interest rate swaps match those of the debt; therefore, the swaps are considered to be (and are accounted for as) 100% effective fair value hedges. Both the swaps and the hedged debt are adjusted for changes in fair value by offsetting amounts. Accordingly, since the swaps are included with long-term debt in the Balance Sheet, the only effect on AFG's financial statements is that the interest expense on the hedged debt is recorded based on the variable rate.

    Goodwill  Goodwill represents the excess of cost of subsidiaries over AFG's equity in their underlying net assets. Goodwill is not amortized, but is subject to an impairment test at least annually.

    Insurance  As discussed under "Reinsurance" below, unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses and unearned premiums have not been reduced for reinsurance recoverable.

           Reinsurance  Amounts recoverable from reinsurers are estimated in a manner consistent with the claim liability associated with the reinsured policies. AFG's insurance subsidiaries report as assets (a) the estimated reinsurance recoverable on paid and unpaid losses, including an estimate for losses incurred but not reported, and (b) amounts paid to reinsurers applicable to the unexpired terms of policies in force. Payable to reinsurers includes ceded premiums due to reinsurers as well as ceded premiums retained by AFG's property and casualty insurance subsidiaries under contracts to fund ceded losses as they become due. AFG's insurance subsidiaries also assume reinsurance from other companies. Income on reinsurance assumed is recognized based on reports received from ceding companies.

    Subsidiaries of AFG's 81%-owned subsidiary, Great American Financial Resources, Inc. ("GAFRI"), cede life insurance policies to a third party on a funds withheld basis whereby GAFRI retains the assets (securities) associated with the reinsurance contracts. Interest is credited to the reinsurer based on the actual investment performance of the retained assets. These reinsurance contracts are considered to contain embedded derivatives (that must be adjusted to fair value) because the yield on the payables is based on specific blocks of the ceding companies' assets, rather than the overall creditworthiness of the ceding company. GAFRI determined that changes in the fair value of the underlying portfolios of fixed maturity securities is an appropriate measure of the value of the embedded derivative. GAFRI classifies the securities related to these transactions as "trading." The adjustment to fair value on the embedded derivatives offsets the investment income recorded on the adjustment to fair value of the related trading portfolios.

           Deferred Policy Acquisition Costs ("DPAC")  Policy acquisition costs (principally commissions, premium taxes and other marketing and underwriting expenses) related to the production of new business are deferred. For the property and casualty companies, DPAC is limited based upon recoverability without any consideration for anticipated investment income and is charged against income ratably over the terms of the related policies.

    DPAC related to annuities and universal life insurance products is deferred to the extent deemed recoverable and amortized, with interest, in relation to the present value of actual and expected gross profits on the policies. To the extent that realized gains and losses result in adjustments to the amortization of DPAC related to annuities, such adjustments are reflected as components of realized gains. DPAC related to annuities is also adjusted, net of tax, for the

    7

    AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

    NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS - CONTINUED

     

    change in amortization that would have been recorded if the unrealized gains (losses) from securities had actually been realized. This adjustment is included in "Unrealized gain (loss) on marketable securities, net" in the shareholders' equity section of the Balance Sheet.

    DPAC related to traditional life and health insurance is amortized over the expected premium paying period of the related policies, in proportion to the ratio of annual premium revenues to total anticipated premium revenues.

    DPAC includes the present value of future profits on business in force of insurance companies acquired by GAFRI, which represents the portion of the costs to acquire companies that is allocated to the value of the right to receive future cash flows from insurance contracts existing at the date of acquisition. The present value of future profits is amortized with interest in relation to expected gross profits of the acquired policies for annuities and universal life products and in relation to the premium paying period for traditional life and health insurance products.

           Annuity and Supplemental Insurance Acquisition Expenses  Annuity and supplemental insurance acquisition expenses on the Statement of Earnings consists of amortization of DPAC related to the annuity, supplemental insurance and run-off life businesses. This line item also includes certain marketing and commission costs of those businesses that are expensed as paid.

           Unpaid Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses  The net liabilities stated for unpaid claims and for expenses of investigation and adjustment of unpaid claims are based upon (a) the accumulation of case estimates for losses reported prior to the close of the accounting period on direct business written; (b) estimates received from ceding reinsurers and insurance pools and associations; (c) estimates of unreported losses (including possible development on known claims) based on past experience; (d) estimates based on experience of expenses for investigating and adjusting claims; and (e) the current state of the law and coverage litigation. Establishing reserves for asbestos, environmental and other mass tort claims involves considerably more judgment than other types of claims due to, among other things, inconsistent court decisions, an increase in bankruptcy filings as a result of asbestos-related liabilities, novel theories of coverage, and judicial interpretations that often expand theories of recovery and broaden the scope of coverage.

    Loss reserve liabilities are subject to the impact of changes in claim amounts and frequency and other factors. Changes in estimates of the liabilities for losses and loss adjustment expenses are reflected in the Statement of Earnings in the period in which determined. Despite the variability inherent in such estimates, management believes that the liabilities for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses are adequate.

           Annuity Benefits Accumulated  Annuity receipts and benefit payments are recorded as increases or decreases in "annuity benefits accumulated" rather than as revenue and expense. Increases in this liability for interest credited are charged to expense and decreases for surrender charges are credited to other income.

           Life, Accident and Health Reserves  Liabilities for future policy benefits under traditional life, accident and health policies are computed using the net level premium method. Computations are based on the original projections of investment yields, mortality, morbidity and surrenders and include provisions for unfavorable deviations. Reserves established for accident and health claims are modified as necessary to reflect actual experience and developing trends.

    8

    AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

    NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS - CONTINUED

     

           Variable Annuity Assets and Liabilities  Separate accounts related to variable annuities represent the fair value of deposits invested in underlying investment funds on which GAFRI earns a fee. Investment funds are selected and may be changed only by the policyholder, who retains all investment risk.

           Premium Recognition  Property and casualty premiums are earned generally over the terms of the policies on a pro rata basis. Unearned premiums represent that portion of premiums written which is applicable to the unexpired terms of policies in force. On reinsurance assumed from other insurance companies or written through various underwriting organizations, unearned premiums are based on reports received from such companies and organizations. For traditional life, accident and health products, premiums are recognized as revenue when legally collectible from policyholders. For interest-sensitive life and universal life products, premiums are recorded in a policyholder account, which is reflected as a liability. Revenue is recognized as amounts are assessed against the policyholder account for mortality coverage and contract expenses.

    Payable to Subsidiary Trusts  Certain subsidiaries have wholly-owned subsidiary trusts that issued preferred securities and, in turn, purchased a like amount of subordinated debt from their parent company. Interest and principal payments from the parent fund the respective trust obligations. AFG does not consolidate these subsidiary trusts because they are "variable interest entities" in which AFG is not considered to be the primary beneficiary. Accordingly, the subordinated debt due to the trusts is included in "long-term debt" in the Balance Sheet and the related interest expense is included in "interest charges on borrowed money" in the Statement of Earnings.

    Minority Interest  For balance sheet purposes, minority interest represents the interests of noncontrolling shareholders in consolidated entities. For income statement purposes, minority interest expense represents such shareholders' interest in the earnings of those entities.

    Income Taxes  AFG files consolidated federal income tax returns that include all U.S. subsidiaries that are at least 80%-owned, except for certain life insurance subsidiaries that have been owned for less than five years.

    Deferred income taxes are calculated using the liability method. Under this method, deferred income tax assets and liabilities are determined based on differences between financial reporting and tax bases and are measured using enacted tax rates. Deferred tax assets are recognized if it is more likely than not that a benefit will be realized.

    Stock-Based Compensation  Effective January 1, 2006, AFG implemented Statement of Financial Accounting Standards ("SFAS") No. 123(R), "Share-Based Payment" using the modified prospective method under which prior year amounts are not restated. Under SFAS No. 123(R), companies must recognize compensation expense for all new share-based awards (including employee stock options), and the nonvested portions of prior awards, based on their calculated "fair value" at the date of grant. Beginning in 2006, all share-based grants are recognized as compensation expense over the vesting period. AFG uses the Black-Scholes pricing model to measure the fair value of employee stock options.

    Prior to the implementation of SFAS No. 123(R), AFG accounted for stock options and other stock-based compensation plans using the intrinsic value method prescribed by Accounting Principles Board Opinion ("APB") No. 25, "Accounting for Stock Issued to Employees." Under this method, no compensation expense

    9

    AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

    NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS - CONTINUED

     

    for stock option grants was recognized because options are granted at exercise prices equal to the fair value of the shares at the dates of grant. See Note F - "Shareholders' Equity" for further information on stock options.

    Benefit Plans  AFG provides retirement benefits to qualified employees of participating companies through the AFG Retirement and Savings Plan, a defined contribution plan. AFG makes all contributions to the retirement fund portion of the plan and matches a percentage of employee contributions to the savings fund. Company contributions are expensed in the year for which they are declared.

    AFG and many of its subsidiaries provide health care and life insurance benefits to eligible retirees. AFG also provides postemployment benefits to former or inactive employees (primarily those on disability) who were not deemed retired under other company plans. The projected future cost of providing these benefits is expensed over the period employees earn such benefits.

    Earnings Per Share  Basic earnings per share is calculated using the weighted average number of shares of common stock outstanding during the period. The calculation of diluted earnings per share includes (i) a deduction of $102,000 in the numerator in the first quarter of 2006 related to dilution of a majority-owned subsidiary and (ii) additions of 1,348,000 shares in 2006 and 1,086,000 shares in 2005 to the denominator representing the dilutive effect of common stock options.

    Statement of Cash Flows  For cash flow purposes, "investing activities" are defined as making and collecting loans and acquiring and disposing of debt or equity instruments and property and equipment. "Financing activities" include obtaining resources from owners and providing them with a return on their investments, borrowing money and repaying amounts borrowed. Annuity receipts, benefits and withdrawals are also reflected as financing activities. All other activities are considered "operating." Short-term investments having original maturities of three months or less when purchased are considered to be cash equivalents for purposes of the financial statements.

  3. Acquisitions and Sales of Subsidiaries

Old Standard Life Fixed Annuity Business  In January 2006, GAFRI acquired the fixed annuity business written by Old Standard Life Insurance Company through a reinsurance transaction. As part of the assets transferred in the reinsurance transaction, GAFRI acquired the stock of Old West Annuity and Life Insurance Company. In total, the transaction resulted in an increase of approximately $280 million in both annuity benefits accumulated and cash and investments.

Great American Life Assurance Company of Puerto Rico  In the fourth quarter of 2005, GAFRI reached an agreement to sell its subsidiary, Great American Life Assurance Company of Puerto Rico ("GAPR"), for $37.5 million in cash and recorded an estimated $3.4 million pretax loss. GAFRI completed the sale in January 2006 and recognized an additional $463,000 loss (included in realized gains (losses) on securities) offsetting a like amount of earnings recorded prior to the sale. GAFRI acquired GAPR in 1997 for approximately $50 million. During 2005, GAPR paid $100 million in dividends to GAFRI.

Farmers Crop Insurance Alliance, Inc.  On September 30, 2005, AFG acquired the multi-peril crop insurance and the crop hail insurance business written through Farmers Crop Insurance Alliance, Inc. for $17.5 million in cash. AFG will pay additional amounts of up to 10% of annual premiums over the next three years based on certain customer retention criteria. Approximately $16.5 million of

10

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS - CONTINUED

 

the initial Farmers Crop purchase price was recorded as intangible renewal rights and is being amortized over an estimated retention period of four years on a straight-line basis. Any future payments (not expected to exceed $15 million) based on customer retention will also be recorded as intangible renewal rights. While there is uncertainty as to the amount of premiums that ultimately will be retained due to the departure of several Farmers' employees in the months preceding the acquisition, AFG expects this acquired business will generate gross written premiums of $130 million to $180 million in 2006.

  1. Segments of Operations  AFG manages its business as three segments: (i) property and casualty insurance, (ii) annuity and supplemental insurance and (iii) other, which includes holding company costs.

AFG reports its property and casualty insurance business in the following Specialty sub-segments: (i) Property and transportation, which includes inland and ocean marine, agricultural-related business and commercial automobile, (ii) Specialty casualty, which includes executive and professional liability, umbrella and excess liability and excess and surplus, (iii) Specialty financial, which includes fidelity and surety bonds and collateral protection, and (iv) California workers' compensation. AFG's annuity and supplemental insurance business markets primarily retirement annuities and various forms of supplemental insurance. AFG's reportable segments and their components were determined based primarily upon similar economic characteristics, products and services.

The following tables (in thousands) show AFG's revenues and operating earnings before income taxes by significant business segment and sub-segment.

 

Three months ended  

 
 

      March 31,      

 
 

2006 

2005 

   

Revenues (a)

       

Property and casualty insurance:

       

  Premiums earned:

       

    Specialty

       

      Property and transportation

$200,003 

$168,071 

   

      Specialty casualty

188,215 

184,167 

   

      Specialty financial

96,223 

91,770 

   

      California workers' compensation

77,315 

87,324 

   

      Other

16,731 

16,407 

   

    Other lines

     597 

   1,360 

   
 

579,084 

549,099 

   

  Investment income

79,529 

68,369 

   

  Realized gains

26,053 

847 

   

  Other

  47,034 

  51,568 

   
 

731,700 

669,883 

   

Annuity and supplemental insurance:

       

  Investment income

150,394 

145,160 

   

  Life, accident and health premiums

82,043 

92,056 

   

  Realized gains

3,721 

45 

   

  Other

  26,057 

  25,554 

   
 

262,215 

262,815 

   

Other

   3,696 

    (715)

   

$997,611 

$931,983 

11

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS - CONTINUED

 

 

Three months ended  

   
 

      March 31,      

   
 

2006 

2005 

   

Operating Earnings Before Income Taxes

       

Property and casualty insurance:

       

  Underwriting:

       

    Specialty

       

      Property and transportation

$ 42,051 

$ 28,941 

   

      Specialty casualty

14,619 

6,568 

   

      Specialty financial

812 

(4,068)

   

      California workers' compensation

12,514 

13,022 

   

      Other

(159)

(1,169)

   

    Other lines

  (1,200)

  (1,464)

   
 

68,637 

41,830 

   

  Investment income, realized gains and other

  97,853 

  65,886 

   
 

166,490 

107,716 

   

Annuity and supplemental insurance

28,750 

25,701 

   

Other (b)

 (26,170)

 (29,095)

   
 

$169,070 

$104,322 

   
         

(a)  Revenues include sales of products and services as well as other income

     earned by the respective segments.

(b)  Includes holding company expenses.

  1. Deferred Policy Acquisition Costs  Included in deferred policy acquisition costs in AFG's Balance Sheet are $48.9 million and $54.1 million at March 31, 2006, and December 31, 2005, respectively, representing the present value of future profits ("PVFP") related to acquisitions by AFG's annuity and supplemental insurance business. The PVFP amounts are net of $63.5 million and $82.5 million of accumulated amortization. The decrease in PVFP reflects the January 2006 sale of GAPR. Amortization of the PVFP was $1.6 million and $3.7 million during the first three months of 2006 and 2005, respectively.
  2. 12

    AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

    NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS - CONTINUED

     

  3. Long-Term Debt  The carrying value of long-term debt consisted of the following (in thousands):

 

March 31,

December 31,

 

    2006 

       2005 

Holding Company:

   

  AFG 7-1/8% Senior Debentures due April 2009

$203,365 

$226,052 

  AFG Senior Convertible Notes due June 2033

189,857 

189,857 

  AFG 7-1/8% Senior Debentures due February 2034

115,000 

115,000 

  AFG 7-1/8% Senior Debentures due December 2007

59,493 

59,493 

  Other

   3,773 

   3,768 

 

 571,488 

 594,170 

Subsidiaries:

   

  GAFRI 7-1/2% Senior Debentures due November 2033

112,500 

112,500 

  GAFRI 7-1/4% Senior Debentures due January 2034

86,250 

86,250 

  GAFRI 6-7/8% Senior Notes due June 2008

45,175 

100,000 

  Notes payable secured by real estate

26,071 

33,112 

  APU 10-7/8% Subordinated Notes due May 2011

8,110 

8,125 

  Other

   7,901 

   8,586 

 

 286,007 

 348,573 

Payable to Subsidiary Trusts:

   

  GAFRI 8-7/8% Subordinated Debentures due

   

    January 2027

21,960 

21,960 

  GAFRI 7.35% Subordinated Debentures due May 2033

20,000 

20,000 

  National Interstate Variable Rate Subordinated

   

    Debentures due May 2033

  15,000 

  15,000 

 

  56,960 

  56,960 

     
 

$914,455 

$999,703 

     

At March 31, 2006, sinking fund and other scheduled principal payments on debt for the balance of 2006 and the subsequent five years were as follows: 2006 - $.9 million; 2007 - $60.8 million; 2008 - $45.6 million; 2009 - $204.4 million; 2010 - $2.2 million; and 2011 - $8.2 million.

During the first quarter of 2006, AFG repurchased $22.8 million of its 7-1/8% Debentures due 2009 for $24.2 million in cash and GAFRI repurchased $54.8 million of its 6-7/8% Notes for $56.8 million in cash.

In March 2006, AFG and GAFRI replaced their existing credit agreements with a new five-year revolving credit facility under which they can borrow a combined $500 million. AFG and GAFRI have agreed not to borrow more than $325 million and $200 million, respectively, under the credit facility and AFG has agreed to guarantee amounts borrowed by GAFRI. Amounts borrowed bear interest at rates ranging from 0.5% to 1.25% over LIBOR based on AFG's credit rating.

To achieve a desired balance between fixed and variable rate debt, GAFRI has entered into interest rate swaps that effectively convert its 6-7/8% fixed rate Senior Notes to a floating rate of 3-month LIBOR plus 2.9%. In connection with the 2006 debt repurchases discussed above, GAFRI paid an additional $1.6 million to effectively terminate the portion of the interest rate swaps that covered the repurchased debt.

AFG's Senior Convertible Notes were issued at a price of 37.153% of the principal amount due at maturity. Interest is payable semiannually at a rate of 4% of issue price per year through June 2008, after which interest at 4% annually will be accrued and added to the carrying value of the Notes. The Notes are redeemable at AFG's option at any time on or after June 2, 2008, at

13

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS - CONTINUED

 

accreted value ranging from $371.53 per Note to $1,000 per Note at maturity. Generally, holders may convert each Note into 11.5016 shares of AFG Common Stock (at $32.30 per share currently) (i) if the average market price of AFG Common Stock to be received upon conversion exceeds 120% of the accreted value ($38.76 per share currently) for a specified period, (ii) if the credit rating of the Notes is significantly lowered, or, (iii) if AFG calls the notes for redemption. Based on the market price of AFG's Common Stock during the quarter ended March 31, 2006, the Notes are currently convertible through June 30, 2006. AFG intends to deliver cash in lieu of Common Stock upon conversion of the Notes; accordingly, shares issuable upon conversion of the Notes are not treated as dilutive.

  1. Shareholders' Equity  AFG is authorized to issue 12.5 million shares of Voting Preferred Stock and 12.5 million shares of Nonvoting Preferred Stock, each without par value.

Stock Incentive Plans  Under AFG's 2005 Stock Incentive Plan, employees of AFG and its subsidiaries are eligible to receive equity awards in the form of stock options, stock appreciation rights, restricted stock awards, restricted stock units and stock awards. This plan replaced AFG's existing stock option plan in the first quarter of 2006.

At March 31, 2006, there were 11.3 million shares of AFG Common Stock reserved for issuance under AFG's stock incentive plan. Options generally become exercisable at the rate of 20% per year commencing one year after grant; those granted to non-employee directors of AFG are fully exercisable upon grant. Options expire ten years after the date of grant. Data for stock options issued under AFG's stock incentive plans is presented below:

     

Average 

Aggregate 

   

Average 

Remaining 

Intrinsic 

   

Exercise 

Contractual 

    Value 

 

   Shares 

   Price 

       Term 

(in millions)

Outstanding at January 1, 2006

6,389,288 

$28.14 

   
         

  Granted

936,450 

$40.31 

   

  Exercised

(331,770)

$29.40 

   

  Forfeited/Cancelled

  (16,900)

$36.03 

   

Outstanding at March 31, 2006

6,977,068 

$29.70 

6.1 years 

$83.3 

         

Options exercisable March 31, 2006

4,351,678 

$28.24 

4.5 years 

$58.4 

         

Options and other awards available

  for grant at March 31, 2006

4,327,566 

The total intrinsic value of options exercised during the three months ended March 31, 2006 and 2005 was $3.6 million and $4.0 million, respectively. During the three months ended March 31, 2006, AFG received $9.8 million from the exercise of stock options. The total tax deduction related to the exercises was $2.3 million.

14

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS - CONTINUED

 

AFG uses the Black-Scholes option pricing model to calculate the "fair value" of its option grants. Expected volatility is based on historical volatility (after consideration of other factors). AFG began using the SEC's simplified method of calculating expected term with its 2006 grants. The fair value of options granted in the first three months of 2006 and 2005 was $9.98 and $9.66, respectively, based on the following assumptions:

 

2006 

2005 

Expected dividend yield

1-1/2%

2%

Expected volatility

19%

28%

Expected term (in years)

6.5 

8.4 

Risk-free rate

4.6%

4.3%

     

Total compensation expense related to stock incentive plans for the three months ended March 31, 2006 was $2.2 million. Related tax benefits totaled $443,000. Included in these totals are $744,000 in compensation expense and $119,000 in tax benefits related to stock incentive plans of two AFG subsidiaries. As of March 31, 2006, there was a total of $22.7 million of total unrecognized compensation expense related to nonvested stock options granted under AFG's plan. That cost is expected to be recognized over a weighted average of 3.8 years.

The following table illustrates the effect on net earnings (in thousands) and earnings per share for the three months ended March 31, 2005, had compensation cost been recognized and determined based on the "fair values" at grant dates consistent with the method used beginning in 2006.

   

2005 

Net earnings, as reported

 

$62,875 

Pro forma stock option expense, net of tax

 

 (1,650)

     

Adjusted net earnings

 

$61,225 

     

Earnings per share (as reported):

   

  Basic

 

$0.82 

  Diluted

 

$0.81 

     

Earnings per share (adjusted):

   

  Basic

 

$0.80 

  Diluted

 

$0.79 

     

  1. Commitments and Contingencies  There have been no significant changes to the matters discussed and referred to in Note O - "Commitments and Contingencies" of AFG's 2005 Annual Report on Form 10-K.
  2.  
  3. Subsequent Events

Chatham Bars Inn  In April 2006, GAFRI reached an agreement to sell Chatham Bars Inn, its resort-hotel property located on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, for $166 million. The sale, which is subject to customary closing conditions, is expected to close in the second quarter of 2006. AFG expects to recognize an after tax gain of approximately $27-$29 million, after transaction costs, the write-off of certain deferred annuity acquisition costs associated with the gain recognition and minority interest.

Ceres Group, Inc.  In May 2006, GAFRI signed an agreement to acquire all of the outstanding shares of Ceres Group, Inc. for approximately $205 million in cash. Ceres sells health and life insurance products through two primary business

15

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS - CONTINUED

 

segments and had assets of approximately $770 million at December 31, 2005. Ceres' medical segment includes major medical health insurance for individuals, families, associations and small businesses. The senior segment includes senior health, life and annuity products for Americans age 55 and over. The transaction, which GAFRI expects to be completed in the third quarter of 2006, is subject to the approval of Ceres' stockholders, regulatory approval and other customary conditions.

16

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

ITEM 2

Management's Discussion and Analysis

of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

_________________________________________________________________________________

INDEX TO MD&A

 

Page

 

Page

    Forward-Looking Statements

17 

  Results of Operations

23 

    Overview

17 

    General

23 

    Critical Accounting Policies

18 

    Income Items

23 

    Liquidity and Capital Resources

19 

    Expense Items

26 

      Ratios

19 

  Proposed Accounting Standard

27 

      Sources of Funds

19 

   

      Investments

20 

   

      Uncertainties

23 

   

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS

The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a safe harbor for forward-looking statements. Some of the forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of words such as "anticipates", "believes", "expects", "estimates", "intends", "plans", "seeks", "could", "may", "should", "will" or the negative version of those words or other comparable terminology. Such forward-looking statements include statements relating to: expectations concerning market and other conditions and their effect on future premiums, revenues, earnings and investment activities; recoverability of asset values; expected losses and the adequacy of reserves for asbestos, environmental pollution and mass tort claims; rate increases; and improved loss experience.

Actual results could differ materially from those contained in or implied by such forward-looking statements for a variety of factors including:

The forward-looking statements herein are made only as of the date of this report. The Company assumes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements.

OVERVIEW

Financial Condition

AFG is organized as a holding company with almost all of its operations being conducted by subsidiaries. AFG, however, has continuing cash needs for administrative expenses, the payment of principal and interest on borrowings,

17

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

Management's Discussion and Analysis

of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Continued

 

shareholder dividends, and taxes. Therefore, certain analyses are best done on a parent only basis while others are best done on a total enterprise basis. In addition, because most of its businesses are financial in nature, AFG does not prepare its consolidated financial statements using a current-noncurrent format. Consequently, certain traditional ratios and financial analysis tests are not meaningful.

At March 31, 2006, AFG (parent) had over $120 million in cash and securities and no amounts borrowed under its bank line of credit.

Results of Operations

Through the operations of its subsidiaries, AFG is engaged primarily in property and casualty insurance and in the sale of retirement annuities and supplemental insurance products.

AFG's net earnings for the first three months of 2006 were $101.5 million or $1.27 per share (diluted), compared to $62.9 million or $.81 per share reported in the first quarter of 2005. The results reflect continued improvement in property and casualty underwriting results and net realized gains on investments in the 2006 quarter compared to net realized losses in the 2005 quarter.

CRITICAL ACCOUNTING POLICIES

Significant accounting policies are summarized in Note A to the financial statements. The preparation of financial statements requires management to make estimates and assumptions that can have a significant effect on amounts reported in the financial statements. As more information becomes known, these estimates and assumptions could change and thus impact amounts reported in the future. The areas where management believes the degree of judgment required to determine amounts recorded in the financial statements make accounting policies critical are as follows:

For a discussion of these policies, see Management's Discussion and Analysis - "Critical Accounting Policies" in AFG's 2005 Form 10-K.

18

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

Management's Discussion and Analysis

of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Continued

 

LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES

Ratios  AFG's debt to total capital ratio on a consolidated basis is shown below (dollars in millions).

 

March 31,

  December 31,  

 

    2006 

2005 

2004 

Long-term debt

$  914 

$1,000 

$1,106 

Total capital (*)

3,726 

3,703 

3,575 

Ratio of debt to total capital

24.5%

27.0%

30.9%

       

(*)  Includes long-term debt, minority interest and

     shareholders' equity (excluding unrealized gains (losses)

     related to fixed maturity investments).

AFG's ratio of earnings to fixed charges, including annuity benefits as a fixed charge, was 2.61 for the quarter ended March 31, 2006 and 1.82 (2.25 excluding A&E and other mass tort charges) for the entire year of 2005. Excluding annuity benefits, this ratio was 8.88 and 4.81 (6.83 excluding the A&E and other mass tort charges), respectively. Although the ratio excluding interest on annuities is not required or encouraged to be disclosed under Securities and Exchange Commission rules, it is presented because interest credited to annuity policyholder accounts is not always considered a borrowing cost for an insurance company.

Sources of Funds

Parent Holding Company Liquidity  Management believes AFG has sufficient resources to meet its liquidity requirements. If funds generated from operations, including dividends and tax payments from subsidiaries, are insufficient to meet fixed charges in any period, AFG would be required to utilize parent company cash and marketable securities (approximately $120 million at March 31, 2006) or generate cash through borrowings, sales of other assets, or similar transactions.

In March 2006, AFG and GAFRI replaced their existing credit agreements with a new five-year revolving credit facility under which they can borrow a combined $500 million. AFG and GAFRI have agreed not to borrow more than $325 million and $200 million, respectively, under the credit facility and AFG has agreed to guarantee amounts borrowed by GAFRI. Amounts borrowed bear interest at rates ranging from 0.5% to 1.25% over LIBOR based on AFG's credit rating.

Under a currently effective shelf registration statement, AFG can offer additional equity or debt securities, including 2.3 million shares of common stock under an equity distribution agreement with UBS Securities LLC. The shelf registration provides AFG with greater flexibility to access the capital markets from time to time as market and other conditions permit.

During the first quarter of 2006, AFG repurchased $22.8 million of its 7-1/8% Debentures due 2009 for $24.2 million in cash.

Subsidiary Liquidity  As discussed above under "Parent Company Liquidity", in March 2006, AFG and GAFRI replaced their existing credit agreements. In addition, GAFRI can offer approximately $250 million in additional equity or debt securities under a currently effective shelf registration.

During the first quarter of 2006, GAFRI repurchased $54.8 million of its 6-7/8% Senior Notes due 2008 for $56.8 million in cash.

19

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

Management's Discussion and Analysis

of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Continued

 

The liquidity requirements of AFG's insurance subsidiaries relate primarily to the liabilities associated with their products as well as operating costs and expenses, payments of dividends and taxes to AFG and contributions of capital to their subsidiaries. Historically, cash flows from premiums and investment income have provided more than sufficient funds to meet these requirements without requiring a sale of investments or contributions from AFG. Funds received in excess of cash requirements are generally invested in additional marketable securities. In addition, the insurance subsidiaries generally hold a significant amount of highly liquid, short-term investments.

The excess cash flow of AFG's property and casualty group allows it to extend the duration of its investment portfolio somewhat beyond that of its claim reserves.

In GAFRI's annuity business, where profitability is largely dependent on earning a "spread" between invested assets and annuity liabilities, the duration of investments is generally maintained close to that of liabilities. In a rising interest rate environment, significant protection from withdrawals exists in the form of temporary and permanent surrender charges on GAFRI's annuity products. With declining rates, GAFRI receives some protection (from spread compression) due to the ability to lower crediting rates, subject to guaranteed minimums.

AFG believes its insurance subsidiaries maintain sufficient liquidity to pay claims and benefits and operating expenses, as well as meet commitments in the event of unforeseen events such as reserve deficiencies, inadequate premium rates or reinsurer insolvencies.

Investments  AFG's investment portfolio at March 31, 2006, contained $14.4 billion in "Fixed maturities" classified as available for sale and $595 million in "Other stocks," all carried at fair value with unrealized gains and losses reported as a separate component of shareholders' equity on an after-tax basis. At March 31, 2006, AFG had pretax net unrealized losses of $209.6 million on fixed maturities and pretax net unrealized gains of $73.9 million on other stocks.

Approximately 94% of the fixed maturities held by AFG at March 31, 2006, were rated "investment grade" (credit rating of AAA to BBB) by nationally recognized rating agencies. Investment grade securities generally bear lower yields and lower degrees of risk than those that are unrated and noninvestment grade. Management believes that a high quality investment portfolio should generate a stable and predictable investment return.

Individual portfolio securities are sold creating gains or losses as market opportunities exist. Since all of these securities are carried at fair value in the balance sheet, there is virtually no effect on liquidity or financial condition upon the sale and ultimate realization of unrealized gains and losses.

20

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

Management's Discussion and Analysis

of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Continued

 

Summarized information for the unrealized gains and losses recorded in AFG's Balance Sheet at March 31, 2006, is shown in the following table (dollars in millions). Approximately $159 million of available for sale "Fixed maturities" had no unrealized gains or losses at March 31, 2006.

 

Securities 

Securities 

 

With    

With    

 

Unrealized 

Unrealized 

 

   Gains   

  Losses   

Available for sale Fixed Maturities

   

  Fair value of securities

$3,226 

$11,022 

  Amortized cost of securities

$3,113 

$11,345 

  Gross unrealized gain (loss)

$  113 

($   323)

  Market value as % of amortized cost

104%

97%

  Number of security positions

883 

1,670 

  Number individually exceeding

   

    $2 million gain or loss

  Concentration of gains (losses) by type or

   

    industry (exceeding 5% of unrealized):

   

      Mortgage-backed securities

$10.1 

($141.5)

      Banks, savings and credit institutions

10.6 

(31.7)

      U.S. Government and government agencies

1.8 

(24.7)

      Insurance companies

5.7 

(21.1)

      State and municipal

5.7 

(19.4)

      Gas and electric services

16.3 

(16.2)

      Air transportation and courier services

10.5 

(0.4)

  Percentage rated investment grade

83%

97%

     

The table below sets forth the scheduled maturities of AFG's available for sale fixed maturity securities at March 31, 2006, based on their fair values. Asset-backed securities and other securities with sinking funds are reported at average maturity. Actual maturities may differ from contractual maturities because certain securities may be called or prepaid by the issuers.

 

Securities 

Securities 

 

With    

With    

 

Unrealized 

Unrealized 

 

   Gains   

  Losses   

Maturity

   

  One year or less

7%    

2%    

  After one year through five years

34     

22     

  After five years through ten years

37     

32     

  After ten years

 11     

  5     

 

89     

61     

  Mortgage-backed securities

 11     

 39     

 

100%    

100%    

21

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

Management's Discussion and Analysis

of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Continued

 

AFG realized aggregate losses of $5.1 million during the first quarter of 2006 on $129.3 million in sales of fixed maturity securities (four issues/issuers) that had individual unrealized losses greater than $500,000 at December 31, 2005. These securities were "AAA" rated mortgage-backed securities that decreased in fair value by an aggregate of $2.2 million from year-end 2005 to the sale date due to an increase in the general level of interest rates.

Although AFG has the ability to continue holding its investments with unrealized losses, its intent to hold them may change due to deterioration in the issuers' creditworthiness, decisions to lessen exposure to a particular issuer or industry, asset/liability management decisions, market movements, changes in views about appropriate asset allocation or the desire to offset taxable realized gains.

The table below (dollars in millions) summarizes the unrealized gains and losses on fixed maturity securities by dollar amount.

       
     

Fair 

 

Aggregate 

Aggregate 

Value as 

 

Fair 

Unrealized 

% of Cost 

 

    Value 

Gain (Loss) 

    Basis 

Fixed Maturities at March 31, 2006 

     
       

Securities with unrealized gains:

     

  Exceeding $500,000 (49 issues)

$   450 

$ 41 

110%

  Less than $500,000 (834 issues)

  2,776 

  72 

103 

 

$ 3,226 

$113 

104%

    

     

Securities with unrealized losses:

     

  Exceeding $500,000 (179 issues)

$ 3,683 

($160)

96%

  Less than $500,000 (1,491 issues)

  7,339 

(163)

98 

 

$11,022 

($323)

97%

    

     

The following table summarizes (dollars in millions) the unrealized loss for all fixed maturity securities with unrealized losses by issuer quality and length of time those securities have been in an unrealized loss position.

       
     

Fair 

 

Aggregate 

Aggregate 

Value as 

 

Fair 

Unrealized 

% of Cost 

 

    Value 

Gain (Loss) 

    Basis 

Fixed Maturities with Unrealized

     

  Losses at March 31, 2006            

     

    

     

Investment grade with losses for:

     

  One year or less (1,260 issues)

$ 8,675 

($232)

97%

  Greater than one year (342 issues)

  2,013 

 (84)

96 

 

$10,688 

($316)

97%

    

     

Non-investment grade with losses for:

     

  One year or less (47 issues)

$   264 

($  4)

99%

  Greater than one year (21 issues)

     70 

  (3)

96 

 

$   334 

($  7)

98%

    

     

When a decline in the value of a specific investment is considered to be "other than temporary," a provision for impairment is charged to earnings (accounted for as a realized loss) and the cost basis of that investment is reduced. The determination of whether unrealized losses are "other than temporary" requires judgment based on subjective as well as objective factors. A listing of factors considered and resources used is contained in the discussion of "Investments" under Management's Discussion and Analysis in AFG's 2005 Form 10-K.

22

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

Management's Discussion and Analysis

of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Continued

 

Based on its analysis, management believes (i) AFG will recover its cost basis in the securities with unrealized losses and (ii) that AFG has the ability and intent to hold the securities until they mature or recover in value. Should either of these beliefs change with regard to a particular security, a charge for impairment would likely be required. While it is not possible to accurately predict if or when a specific security will become impaired, charges for other than temporary impairment could be material to results of operations in a future period. Management believes it is not likely that future impairment charges will have a significant effect on AFG's liquidity.

Uncertainties  Management believes that the areas posing the greatest risk of material loss are the adequacy of its insurance reserves and American Premier's contingencies arising out of its former operations. See Management's Discussion and Analysis - "Uncertainties" in AFG's 2005 Form 10-K.

RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

General  Results of operations as shown in the accompanying financial statements are prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles.

AFG reported operating earnings before income taxes of $169 million for the first quarter of 2006 compared to $104 million for the 2005 quarter. The increase reflects a $26.8 million improvement in property and casualty underwriting results and net realized gains of $29.8 million for the 2006 quarter compared to net realized losses of $5.5 million for the 2005 quarter. Realized gains for the 2006 quarter includes a pretax gain of $23.6 million on the sale of AFG's interest in The Cincinnati Reds.

Property and Casualty Insurance - Underwriting  AFG reports its Specialty insurance business in the following sub-segments: (i) Property and transportation, which includes inland and ocean marine, agricultural-related business and commercial automobile, (ii) Specialty casualty, which includes executive and professional liability, umbrella and excess liability and excess and surplus, (iii) Specialty financial, which includes fidelity and surety bonds and collateral protection, and (iv) California workers' compensation.

Performance measures such as underwriting profit or loss and related combined ratios are often used by property and casualty insurers to help users of their financial statements better understand the company's performance. See Note C - "Segments of Operations" for the detail of AFG's operating profit by significant business segment.

Underwriting profitability is measured by the combined ratio, which is a sum of the ratios of underwriting losses, loss adjustment expenses and underwriting expenses to premiums. A combined ratio under 100% is indicative of an underwriting profit. The combined ratio does not reflect investment income, other income or federal income taxes.

23

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

Management's Discussion and Analysis

of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Continued

 

Premiums and combined ratios for AFG's Specialty property and casualty insurance operations were as follows (dollars in millions):

 

Three months ended 

 
 

     March 31,     

 
 

2006 

2005 

   

Gross Written Premiums (GAAP)

       

Specialty:

       

  Property and transportation

$317.8 

$277.4 

   

  Specialty casualty

375.1 

357.5 

   

  Specialty financial

119.1 

115.7 

   

  California workers' compensation

84.6 

104.0 

  Other

  (2.2)

   1.3 

   

    Total Specialty

$894.4 

$855.9 

   

   

       

Net Written Premiums (GAAP)

       

Specialty:

       

  Property and transportation

$230.7 

$202.5 

   

  Specialty casualty

202.1 

185.7 

   

  Specialty financial

92.7 

96.1 

   

  California workers' compensation

79.6 

93.5 

   

  Other

  18.2 

  15.0 

   

    Total Specialty

$623.3 

$592.8 

   

   

       

Combined Ratios (GAAP)(a)

       

Specialty:

       

  Property and transportation

79.0%

82.8%

   

  Specialty casualty

92.3 

96.4 

   

  Specialty financial

99.1 

104.3 

   

  California workers' compensation

83.9 

85.1 

   

  Other

100.9 

107.1 

   

    Total Specialty

88.0%

92.1%

   
         

(a)

AFG's aggregate combined ratio, including other (primarily discontinued) lines, was 88.1% and 92.4% for the three months ended March 31, 2006 and 2005, respectively.

   

Net written premiums for the specialty insurance operations were 5% higher in the 2006 first quarter than the same period in 2005. Significant premium growth in the Property and Transportation group was partially offset by a decline in California workers' compensation premiums. The specialty operations generated an underwriting profit of $69.8 million in the first quarter of 2006, a $26.5 million (61%) increase over the 2005 first quarter. Favorable reserve development more than offset a $10.8 million (1.8 point) increase in catastrophe losses in 2006 compared to 2005, principally from severe storms in the Midwest.

Property and transportation net written premiums increased 14% over the 2005 quarter due primarily to new premium volume from the recently acquired Farmers Crop Insurance Alliance, higher commodity prices used to establish 2006 crop insurance coverages and growth in the inland marine businesses. Although the majority of the Midwest storm losses affected this group, those losses were offset by favorable prior year reserve development, particularly in the crop insurance operations. The combined ratio improvement of 3.8 points also reflects strong underwriting profits from the transportation, marine and equine operations.

Due to recent upward revisions in industry models of correlated catastrophe exposure associated with writing both workers' compensation and excess property

24

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

Management's Discussion and Analysis

of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Continued

 

coverage in California, AFG has decided that it would stop writing most of its earthquake-exposed excess property coverage in California effective in April 2006. This excess property business had net written premiums of $17 million in 2005. AFG's excess property and California workers' compensation exposure to a catastrophic earthquake that models indicate could occur once in every 500 years was limited to less than 10% of equity. Excluding the excess property coverage to be non-renewed, AFG's exposure will be limited to less than 1% of equity for an earthquake that models indicate could occur once in 500 years.

Specialty casualty net written premiums were 9% higher than the 2005 quarter due primarily to volume growth as well as lower premiums ceded under reinsurance agreements, principally in the executive liability and excess and surplus lines. The 4.1 point improvement in the combined ratio compared to the 2005 quarter reflects a significant decrease in adverse reserve development in the executive liability operations. In addition, the excess and surplus lines and coverage for not-for-profit businesses continued to produce strong underwriting profits.

Specialty financial net written premiums were about 4% lower than the 2005 quarter as more premiums were ceded in the 2006 period under residual value reinsurance agreements. AFG is exiting the residual value business in 2006 as the remaining contracts expire. The 5.2 point improvement in the combined ratio compared to the 2005 quarter reflects a significant reduction in losses from the residual value business. In addition, the fidelity and crime, trade credit and financial institutions operations continued to generate strong profitability.

California workers' compensation net written premiums for the 2006 quarter were about 15% below the 2005 first quarter, reflecting the effect of lower rates, partly offset by good business retention and volume growth. Underwriting margins continue to benefit from an improved claims environment resulting from the workers' compensation reforms enacted in California.

Life, Accident and Health Premiums and Benefits  The decrease in life, accident and health premiums and benefits is due primarily to the January 2006 sale of Great American Life of Puerto Rico ("GAPR"). Benefits for the first quarter of 2006 also reflect an increase in loss experience in GAFRI's supplemental insurance business.

Investment Income  The increase in investment income for the first quarter of 2006 compared to the 2005 quarter reflects an increase of about $1 billion (7%) in average cash and investments.

Realized Gains (Losses)  Realized capital gains have been an important part of the return on investments. Individual assets are sold creating gains and losses as market opportunities exist. Realized gains for the first quarter of 2006 includes a $23.6 million pretax gain on the sale of AFG's interest in The Cincinnati Reds.

Realized gains (losses) on securities include provisions for other than temporary impairment of securities still held of $3.0 million in the first quarter of 2006 and $1.9 million in the first quarter of 2005.

25

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

Management's Discussion and Analysis

of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Continued

 

Real Estate Operations  AFG's subsidiaries are engaged in a variety of real estate operations including hotels, apartments, office buildings and recreational facilities; they also own several parcels of land. Revenues and expenses of these operations, including gains and losses on disposal, are included in AFG's Statement of Earnings as shown below (in millions).

 

Three months ended 

 
 

     March 31,     

 
 

2006 

2005 

   

Other income

$22.6 

$23.3 

   

Other operating and general expenses

16.9 

20.6 

   

Interest charges on borrowed money

.7 

.5 

   

Minority interest expense, net

1.5 

.4 

   
         

Sales of properties have reduced revenues and expenses from AFG's real estate operations. Other income includes net pretax gains on the sale of real estate assets of $7.0 million in the first quarter of 2006 and $2.6 million for the 2005 period.  See Note H - "Subsequent Events."

Annuity Benefits  Annuity benefits reflect amounts accrued on annuity policyholders' funds accumulated. On its deferred annuities (annuities in the accumulation phase), GAFRI generally credits interest to policyholders' accounts at their current stated interest rates. Furthermore, for "two-tier" deferred annuities (annuities under which a higher interest amount can be earned if a policy is annuitized rather than surrendered), GAFRI accrues additional reserves for (i) persistency and premium bonuses and (ii) excess benefits expected to be paid for future deaths and annuitizations. Changes in crediting rates, actual surrender, death and annuitization experience or modifications in actuarial assumptions can affect this accrual. Significant changes in projected investment yields could result in charges (or credits) to earnings in the period the projections are modified.

The increase in annuity benefits for the first quarter of 2006 compared to the 2005 period reflects higher reserves due primarily to new business.

Annuity and Supplemental Insurance Acquisition Expenses  Annuity and supplemental insurance acquisition expenses include amortization of annuity, supplemental insurance and run-off life business deferred policy acquisition costs ("DPAC") as well as a portion of commissions on sales of insurance products. Annuity and supplemental insurance acquisition expenses also include amortization of the present value of future profits of businesses acquired. The $2.2 million decrease in annuity and supplemental insurance acquisition expenses for the first quarter of 2006 compared to the 2005 period reflects the January 2006 sale of GAPR, partially offset by growth in the annuity and supplemental insurance businesses.

The vast majority of GAFRI's DPAC asset relates to its fixed annuity, variable annuity and run-off life insurance lines of business. Continued spread compression, decreases in the stock market and adverse mortality could lead to write-offs of DPAC in the future.

Interest Expense  Changes in interest expense result from fluctuations in market rates as well as changes in borrowings. AFG has generally financed its borrowings on a long-term basis, which has resulted in higher current costs.

The $1.1 million (6%) decrease in interest expense is due primarily to the retirement of debt during the first quarter of 2006 and late 2005, partially offset by a higher effective interest rate on GAFRI's floating rate debt.

26

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

Management's Discussion and Analysis

of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Continued

 

Other Operating and General Expenses  Other operating and general expenses include $5.2 million and $1.0 million in losses on retirement of debt in 2006 and 2005, respectively.

Proposed Accounting Standard

Convertible Notes  The FASB has proposed an amendment to SFAS 128, "Earnings per Share." Currently, SFAS 128 allows companies issuing securities that can be settled in cash or stock (such as AFG's convertible notes) to exclude the issuable shares from the calculation of diluted earnings per share when there is a stated intent and ability to deliver cash in lieu of stock upon settlement or conversion. The proposed amendment would require companies to assume settlement in stock (despite the ability and intent to settle in cash) and include those shares in the calculation of diluted earnings per share. Should the FASB proposal be adopted as proposed, AFG anticipates that it will amend the convertible note indenture to eliminate the option to settle the accreted value of the notes in shares, and thereby mitigate the proposal's impact on dilution.

 

 

_________________________________________________

 

 

ITEM 3

Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosure of Market Risk

As of March 31, 2006, there were no material changes to the information provided in Item 7A - "Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosure of Market Risk" of AFG's 2005 Form 10-K.

ITEM 4

Controls and Procedures

AFG's management, with participation of its Co-Chief Executive Officers and its principal financial officer, has evaluated AFG's disclosure controls and procedures (as defined in Exchange Act Rule 13a-15) as of the end of the period covered by this report. Based on that evaluation, AFG's Co-CEOs and principal financial officer concluded that these disclosure controls and procedures were effective.

In the ordinary course of business, AFG and its subsidiaries routinely enhance their information systems by either upgrading current systems or implementing new systems. There has been no change in AFG's business processes and procedures during the first fiscal quarter of 2006 that has materially affected, or is reasonably likely to materially affect, AFG's internal controls over financial reporting.

27

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

PART II

OTHER INFORMATION

ITEM 6

Exhibits

Number

Exhibit Description

   

 12

Computation of ratios of earnings to fixed charges.

   

 31(a)

Certification of the Co-Chief Executive Officer pursuant

 

to section 302(a) of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002.

   

 31(b)

Certification of the Co-Chief Executive Officer pursuant

 

to section 302(a) of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002.

   

 31(c)

Certification of the Chief Financial Officer pursuant to

 

section 302(a) of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002.

   

 32

Certification of the Co-Chief Executive Officers and Chief

 

Financial Officer pursuant to section 906 of the Sarbanes-

 

Oxley Act of 2002.

 

 

28

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

Signature

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, American Financial Group, Inc. has duly caused this Report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned duly authorized.

 

American Financial Group, Inc.

   
   
   

May 5, 2006

BY: s/Keith A. Jensen               

 

    Keith A. Jensen

 

    Senior Vice President

 

    (principal financial and

 

      accounting officer)

29