China's reopening is going to make a huge difference globally, Jim Rogers, co-founder of Quantum Fund, said in an interview with Yicai Global recently as it is going to lead to more demand and bring more products to the market. To watch the full interview with Jim Rogers, please visit https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3l9V0qYI-E
Extracts from the interview are below -
Yicai Global: Institutions vary in expectations for this year’s global economic growth. For example, the United Nations’ forecast is 1.9 percent, while the International Monetary Fund predicts 2.9 percent. What’s your take on this? What are the major driving forces or hurdles for global recovery this year?
Rogers: My view is we had serious problems. We had a huge boom. Inflation got out of control. When we had the virus, they closed down a lot of places. Now the virus is not completely passed, but it's getting better and people are opening up. Inflation calmed down a little bit. Since China is opening up again, and China is the second-largest economy in the world, these things will be better for a while.
Many people say we will have a recession, and we will, but I suspect it will not happen this week or this month. It will happen later, probably later this year or next year. It’s coming, but not right away.
YG: Major institutions have raised China's economic growth forecast after it eased Covid-19 controls. So will China’s economy usher in a large rebound in 2023?
Rogers: The reopening of China again is going to make a huge difference. It's going to cause more demand and bring more products to the markets, to world trade. It's going to help a lot!
YG: You mentioned in a previous interview that China will be the most successful country of the 21st century. Could you elaborate on this？
Rogers: The 19th century was the century of the UK. The 20th century was the century of the US. In my view, the 21st century is going to be the century of China. They are opening up. There have 1.4 billion people there. They did not build up gigantic debt like some countries -- Japan, England, America, and others. Now those 1.4 billion Chinese are back. They are smart, energetic, and ambitious, they work hard, and save their money.
China is the only country in world history that has been on the top three or four times. Rome was great once. Egypt was great once. Britain was great once. China has been great three or four times in history. They are the only country that after being at the bottom for a while has turned around after a few decades, or centuries, and risen to the top again. It’s happening again.
YG: Globalization is facing increasing resistance. To what extent are you worried about the trend continuing or even intensifying in 2023, and how it will affect economic growth?
Rogers: I hope you are very worried. I certainly am. Throughout history, when people have economic problems with each other, they don’t have to, but when politicians don't know what to do, they blame foreigners and that makes it worse of course.
Whether the problems are Washington or Beijing, and in this case they are more Washington than any place else. We don’t have to have them, but we always have because somebody, whenever there are problems people start blaming foreigners. They don’t blame themselves.
No politician anywhere in history has said ‘you know this is my fault, I'm sorry.’ No, they say its those foreigners. See those people with different hair, and different eyes, and different language, different food, and different clothes? Those are the problems! That always happens. Washington is doing it a bit more now. I wish they would not do it. But they think that is the way to get elected.
China and America for the past 40 years had great prosperity and progress together. It could happen that way again, if people just stay calm and work together instead of shouting at each other.
YG: You were one of the first foreigners to invest in China’s stock market. As an international investor, which industries have you paid the most attention to in recent years?
Rogers: When there are problems, we had a big virus recently, but many industries got hurt badly. Travel, tourism, entertainment, restaurants, and things like that got hurt badly, so those are the areas where I have been looking.
Remember the Mandarin word weiji. We don’t have that word in English, but the Chinese know, because they have been around for centuries, that catastrophe and opportunity are the same thing!
YG: How do you evaluate the opening up and internationalization process of China's capital market in recent years?
Rogers: China has been the most successful country in the world in the last 40 years. It could happen more. If I were in charge, I would make it even more. I would open China more and more every week, every day. You don’t remember China before. I do! It’s a miracle what has happened.
More people have been lifted out of poverty in China in the past 45 years than ever in the history of the world. It has been a fantastic miracle. It has been doing right. But that doesn't mean you can't have problems. There will be problems along the way. But when you see problems, remember weiji.
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