fwp
Filed Pursuant To Rule 433
Registration No. 333-167132
July 27, 2010
QUARTER 2 2010
Price trends
The gold price had a strong performance during Q2 2010, ending the quarter at US$1,244.00/oz,
on the London PM fix, 11.5% higher quarter-on-quarter. Gold had one of its largest gains in euro
terms, rising 23.1% over the quarter. Investment activity suggests that gold remains a sought after
asset, as investors take advantage of its benefits as a source of protection, diversification,
liquidity and risk management. Golds average volatility of 15.8% in Q2 2010 was lower than the
previous quarter, and while volatility increased through the quarter, it remained below that of
equity and commodity indices.
... read more on page 2
Investment trends
Investors bought 273.8 net tonnes of gold via exchange traded funds (ETFs) in Q2 2010 as market
participants sought cost effective ways to harness golds investment benefits. Gold in the ETFs
that we monitor reached a record 2,014.8 tonnes (worth US$81.6 billion). Similarly, the US Mint
reported sales in excess of US$480 million over the quarter; evidence suggests a similar trend in
bullion sales in Europe and China. Net long positions on gold futures contracts, a proxy for more
speculative investment, rose as well.
... read more on page 5
Market and economic influences
The second quarter of 2010 was marred by mixed economic news, heightening concerns that a
double dip recession may be a distinct possibility and that global economic recovery may be slower
to come than previously anticipated. While global equities fell, demand for assets such as US
Treasuries and gold, which tend to perform well in periods of crisis, increased. The WGC expects
that the intention by the Peoples Bank of China to gradually increase the flexibility of the yuan
regime will be positive for the Chinese gold consumer. Finally, the gold price does not appeared
overvalued when compared to other assets relative to historical standards.
... read more on page 8
Gold market trends
Preliminary reports in Q2 2010 indicate that jewellery demand in India remains healthier than
in 2009. However, by quarter-end, consumer sentiment may have turned sluggish due to an off-peak
season and higher price volatility. The WGC anticipates demand will likely pick up towards the end
of the summer. Anecdotal evidence suggests jewellery demand in China may have started to pick-up in
July. Finally, swaps conducted between the BIS and European commercial banks during late 2009 and
early 2010 provide a clear example of golds effectiveness in providing liquidity during periods of
financial distress.
... read more on page 11
Key data
Our key data table provides you with a concise summary of gold returns, supply and demand
statistics, price volatility and a correlation matrix covering gold, silver, commodities, equities
and bonds.
... read more on page 15
Contributors
Juan Carlos Artigas
juancarlos.artigas@gold.org
Louise Street
louise.street@gold.org
World Gold Council
55 Old Broad Street
London
EC2M 1RX
www.gold.org
investment@gold.org
+44 (0) 20 7826 4700
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© 2010 World Gold Council and GFMS Ltd
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PRICE TRENDS
The gold price had a strong performance during Q2 2010, ending the quarter at US$1,244.00/oz,
on the London PM fix, compared with US$1,115.50/oz at the end of Q1 2010. This represented an
increase of 11.5%, its largest quarter-on-quarter gain since Q1 2008. Not surprisingly, the average
gold price in Q2 2010 rose by almost US$90/oz to US$1,196.74/oz, from US$1,109.12/oz the previous
quarter. Throughout the quarter, gold followed an upward trend, on several occasions breaking
record highs and reaching US$1,261.00/oz on the London PM fix on 28 June. While the price of gold
has fallen to the US$1,200.00/oz level in July trading, the trend remains well supported and golds
performance is underpinned by the multiple factors that affect its demand and supply.
The continuing upward trend in the gold market in Q2 2010 can be explained by several reasons. On
the one hand, investment activity suggests that gold remains a sought after asset, as evidenced by
net inflows in various gold-backed investment vehicles. Credit woes in Europe resulting from
concerns about the finances of various EU members had a negative impact on the outlook for the euro
and the British pound; while the dollar appeared to fare better, investors sought out gold as a
currency alternative as evidenced by large purchases of coins and small bars around the globe.
Similarly, the gold ETFs we periodically monitor saw consistently strong inflows during the
quarter, collectively adding over 270 tonnes in assets under management. Furthermore, net long
positions on gold futures contracts, a proxy for the more speculative end of investment demand,
also returned to levels close to those seen during Q4 2009. On the other hand, anecdotal evidence
suggests that jewellery consumption has not been immune to higher gold prices and an increase in
volatility toward the end of the second quarter. However jewellery demand from regions such as
India and the Middle East remains in better shape relative to the lower consumption levels
experienced in 2009. Moreover, solid economic growth in China has been positive for gold Chinese
consumers.
Chart 1: Gold price (US$/oz), London PM fix
Source: The London Bullion Market Association
Developed markets
The price of gold reached new highs not only in dollar terms, but also in many other
currencies, especially those in Europe where austerity measures to resolve unhealthy public
finances created a gloomy economic outlook and a negative period for local currencies. In the first
few months of the second quarter, many currencies around the globe not only fell against the US
dollar but also experienced higher levels of volatility. Consequently, gold prices rose by 23.1% in
euro terms, while rising 13.2% in sterling and 14.3% in Swiss francs. Both the Canadian and
Australian dollars did not fare much better as lower commodity prices impacted those economies and
gold saw a price increase of 16.6% and 20.9% in local currency terms respectively. At the other end
of the spectrum, gold posted its lowest quarterly return of 5.7% in Japan, where the yen
appreciated substantially versus multiple currencies.
Gold performance Developed Markets
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Last price |
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6/30/10 |
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Q2 Max |
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Q2 Min |
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% QoQ |
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% Vol* |
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US$/oz |
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1,244.00 |
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1,261.00 |
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1,123.50 |
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11.5 |
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15.8 |
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GBP/oz |
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831.38 |
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863.66 |
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735.61 |
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13.2 |
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18.7 |
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EUR/oz |
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1,014.93 |
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1,040.76 |
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828.30 |
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23.1 |
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19.6 |
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CHF/oz |
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1,340.66 |
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1,432.15 |
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1,186.19 |
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14.3 |
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16.7 |
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JPY/oz |
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110,193.52 |
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115,285.50 |
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104,898.60 |
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5.7 |
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19.4 |
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CAD/oz |
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1,321.13 |
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1,321.13 |
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1,133.16 |
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16.6 |
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19.6 |
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AUD/oz |
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1,469.23 |
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1,509.94 |
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1,220.66 |
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20.9 |
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21.6 |
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Source: London Bullion Market Association, Bloomberg, WGC
*Annualised quarterly volatility based on daily returns
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July 2010
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2
In general during Q2 2010, many financial assets, especially in Europe, suffered losses as risk
aversion, credit concerns and disappointing economic news around the world prompted investors to
seek refuge in hard assets such as gold. US Treasuries, as measured by the Barclays US Treasuries
aggregate index also rose 4.7% over the quarter. Conversely, the S&P 500 total return index and the
MSCI World ex US Index (which is heavily weighted towards European equities) fell by 11.9% and
14.5% respectively, in US dollar terms. During the same period, the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodities
Spot Index (S&P GSCI) fell by 6.6%, as industrial commodities retreated as a result of slower than
anticipated economic growth. In particular, the price of oil fell by 9.1% to US$73.87/bbl by the
end of Q2 2010 from US$81.30/bbl the previous quarter.
Moreover, on a risk-adjusted basis, gold outperformed all of these assets except US Treasuries, as
golds average annualised volatility at 15.8% remained much lower than many of the equity indices
which hovered around the 25.0% mark.
Chart 2: Relative price performance in Q2 2010*
Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Capital
Emerging markets
Unlike the first quarter of 2010, emerging market currencies lost ground to the dollar during
the second quarter of 2010 displaying similarities to the trends experienced during the midst of
the financial crisis in late 2008 and early 2009. Investors were reducing risk across the spectrum,
and emerging markets proved to be no exception. For example, gold reached new highs in Indian rupee
terms, staying above the INR 1,750.00/g (approx. INR 56,500/oz) level for most of the second
quarter and increasing by 15.2% during the period. The largest rise in the gold price amongst the
emerging market currencies we typically follow was recorded in Russian rouble (18.4%) and South
African rand (17.5%) terms, as their trading links to Europe and their reliance on commodities
commodities dampened the economic outlook for both markets. As the Chinese yuan moved in sync with
the US dollar, gold in local currency rose by 10.8% giving the Chinese consumer a more attractive
entry point, in contrast to potential buyers in other countries.
Gold performance Emerging Markets
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Last price |
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6/30/10 |
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Q2 Max |
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Q2 Min |
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% QoQ |
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% Vol* |
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RUB/oz |
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38,860.69 |
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39,616.94 |
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32,879.23 |
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18.4 |
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19.6 |
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TRY/oz |
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1,964.52 |
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1,997.96 |
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1,690.56 |
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15.9 |
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19.3 |
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CNY/oz |
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8,436.06 |
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8,575.34 |
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7,669.35 |
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10.8 |
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15.6 |
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INR/oz |
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57,786.91 |
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58,493.47 |
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50,373.39 |
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15.2 |
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18.2 |
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ZAR/oz |
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9,521.95 |
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9,652.58 |
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8,143.13 |
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17.5 |
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19.5 |
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Source: London Bullion Market Association, Bloomberg, WGC
*Annualised quarterly volatility based on daily returns
In general, emerging market equitiesas measured by the MSCI EM Indexwere down by 9.1% in
dollars terms. While this was better than their developed market counterparts, currency
depreciation and overall risk aversion offset a somewhat more positive economic outlook in many
developing countries.
Commodity performance
Demand for business cycle-linked commodities fell as the global recovery, especially in
developed countries, appeared to be slower than anticipated. While there was some positive economic
news, most investors concentrated on the potentially crippling effect of much needed austerity
measures in Europe and the effect they could have on an already weak economic recovery. In Q2 2010,
gold and silver were the best performing commodities, as investors used gold in particular as a
hedge against currency weakness. Otherwise, metals with a greater degree of exposure to industrial
demand fell significantly: zinc, nickel and lead dropped by more than 20.0% quarter-on-quarter.
Even platinum and palladium posted quarterly losses on the order of 6.7% and 7.9%, respectively. On
a quarterly basis, oil fell by over 9.1%, livestock by 2.8%, while agricultural commodities closed
the period relatively unchanged.
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July 2010
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3
Commodities Returns
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% QOQ |
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% YOY |
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Gold London PM fix (US$/oz) |
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11.5 |
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33.1 |
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Silver London fix (US$/oz) |
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7.1 |
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34.4 |
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Palladium (US$/oz) |
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-7.9 |
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76.4 |
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Platinum (US$/oz) |
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-6.7 |
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30.3 |
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Aluminum (US$/t) |
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-15.9 |
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19.1 |
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Copper (US$/t) |
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-16.8 |
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27.5 |
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Lead (US$/t) |
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-20.3 |
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-2.3 |
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Nickel (US$/t) |
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-22.1 |
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21.4 |
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Tin (US$/t) |
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-4.8 |
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16.8 |
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Zinc (US$/t) |
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-26.7 |
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11.2 |
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Brent crude oil (US$/bbl) |
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-9.1 |
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8.1 |
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S&P GS Commodity Index |
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-10.4 |
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-5.4 |
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S&P GS Agriculture Index |
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-0.3 |
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-10.7 |
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S&P GS Livestock Index |
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-2.8 |
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0.9 |
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DJ UBS Commodity Index |
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-4.8 |
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2.7 |
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R/J CRB Commodity Index |
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-5.4 |
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3.5 |
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Source: Global Insight, WGC
Price volatility
Overall market volatility rose during the second quarter of 2010, in some instances surpassing
levels seen during the first quarter of 2009, and while it levelled off somewhat by the end of the
quarter, volatility risk remains high in relation to levels at the end of 2009. Not surprisingly,
gold price volatility also rose by the end of Q2 2010 relative to the low levels seen in March
2010, but it remained much lower than many global asset classes. Measured on a 22-day rolling
basis, the quarterly peak in gold volatility of 19.0% attained on 10 June 2010 was below the
20.0%-plus levels seen in late 2009 and early 2010. Moreover, on a quarterly basis, average gold
price volatility of 15.8% in Q2 2010 was even lower the average volatility of 17.6% in Q1 2010.
In general, annualised gold volatility in May and June remained around 18.0%, above its historical
mean (golds 20-year price volatility is around 15.8%). However, the increase in gold price
volatility is dwarfed by comparison to the VIX indexa market estimate of future volatility based
on the weighted average of the implied volatilities of a wide range of option strikeswhich traded
at an average of 26.4% in Q2 2010 up from 20.1% in the previous quarter. Similarly, average daily
volatility on the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index rose to 23.4% in Q2 2010, from 21.3% in the
previous quarter on an annual basis.
Gold remained, on average, one of the least volatile of the commodities that we monitor, with the
exception of the S&P GS Livestock Index. Nickel was the most volatile commodity with an average
volatility of 48.0% in Q2 2010, surpassing lead for the first time over the past four consecutive
quarters. Lead, palladium and zinc all had an average annualised volatility close to 45.0%. Crude
oil volatility also rose to an average 32.3% (on an annualised basis) in Q2 2010 from 29.0% in Q1
2010.
Chart 3: Gold & S&P GS Commodity Index
annualised price volatility (22-day rolling, %)
and the VIX Index (level)
Source: Bloomberg, WGC
Chart 4: Annualised Q1 2010 volatility for selected commodities
Source: Global Insight, WGC
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July 2010
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4
INVESTMENT TRENDS
Exchange traded funds
The second quarter of 2010 saw a flurry of fresh gold purchases via exchange traded funds
(ETFs), as market participants sought cost effective ways to harness golds investment benefits.
Investors bought a collective 273.8 tonnes of gold in the ETFs that we monitor, the second largest
quarterly inflow on record. This brought total gold holdings to a new high of 2,041.8 tonnes, worth
US$81.6 billion at the quarter-end London PM fix.
SPDR® Gold Shares (GLD) listed on the NYSE Arca and cross-listed in Mexico, Singapore, Tokyo and
Hong Kong experienced the largest net inflows, adding 190.6 tonnes to a total 1,320.4 tonnes by the
end of the quarter. As of 25 June 2010, GLD surpassed the US$50.0 billion milestone in assets under
management in the trust, making it the second largest ETF by assets in the world. In general,
European-listed gold ETFs added over 70.0 tonnes of gold to their holdings, led by ETF Securities
Physical Gold (PHAU) which is listed on the London Stock Exchange. PHAU grew by almost 30%, or 30.8
tonnes, to a total 134.1 tonnes. Only Gold Bullion Securities (GBS), listed on the Australian Stock
Exchange, experienced a small net outflow, shedding 0.5 tonnes during Q2 2010.
Chart 5: Gold ETF holdings in tonnes and the gold price (US$/oz)
Data: www.ishares.com; www.exchangetradedgold.com;
www.etfsecurities.com; Zurich Kantonalbank; Finans
Portföy; www.Deutsche-Boerse.com;
www.juliusbaer.com; London Bullion Market
Association, Global Insight. Chart: WGC,
www.gold.org
GLD options
Accordingly, GLD options trading also rose during the second quarter of 2010. GLD options
volume rose 15.3% during the quarter to a total of 13.3 million contracts from 11.5 million in Q1
2010; this volume, however, was still below the cumulative 13.7 million contracts transacted in Q4
2009. Trading volumes rose especially in May and early June, as the price of gold reached
successive new highs. Historically, both volume and open interest tends to be higher in GLD calls
than puts. While it is not possible to distinguish between long and short positions, as open
interest increased in Q2 2010, anecdotal evidence suggests that many investors sold
out-of-the-money (OTM) GLD calls to collect the premium while maintaining a bullish view on the
market. Moreover, while trading volume peaked in May and subsided thereafter, open interest
remained strong throughout the quarter.
While realised (or delivered) volatility was lower in Q2 2010 than it was in Q1 2010, at-the-money
(ATM) implied volatilities on the three-month call and put options rose considerably moving up from
17.6% on 30 March to 23.6% by 30 June with a peak of 26.0% on 20 May. This higher level of implied
volatility coincided with the quarterly put option volume peak of 243,129 contracts. In general,
GLD implied volatility appeared to follow option trading activity more closely during the quarter
than realised volatility in the price of GLD shares (or equivalently, golds price volatility).
Thus, gold once again delivered a tamer volatility pattern than some market participants
anticipated, especially for those who solely focus on investment activity in the derivatives
market.
Gold futures
COMEX total non-commercial and non-reportable net long positions, a proxy for the more
speculative end of investment demand, gradually increased over the quarter. The net long ultimately
gained 8.2 million ounces to 29.0 million ounces by the end of Q2 2010, compared to 20.8 million
ounces at the end of Q1 2010. On average, net long positions in the second quarter of 2010
increased by 27.0% relative to the previous quarter. The net long followed the upward trend in the
price of gold, as it continued to set new highs on the back of economic and financial uncertainty
around the globe.
The rise in net long was due to a larger increase in long-only compared to the increment in
short-only positions over the quarter. Long-only positions rose by 8.2 million contracts per day on
average during Q2 2010 relative to
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July 2010
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5
the previous quarter, more than offsetting a 2.0 million contracts per day increment in
short-only contracts during the same period. While the price of gold in early July has fallen from
the record highs seen in late June, net long positions have remained strong as many investors at
the more speculative end of the spectrum continue to see value in gold.
Similarly, in China, the Shanghai Gold Exchange announced that the turnover in gold trading was up
58.7% at 3,741.5 tonnes in the first six months of 2010, at the same time that spot trading volume
reached 834.6 tonnes.
Chart 6: COMEX net long on non-commercial & non-reportable positions on the active gold futures
contract (million oz) versus the gold price (US$/oz)
Source: COMEX, Bloomberg
OTC market
According to research carried out by GFMS on behalf of the World Gold Council, investor
activity in the over-the-counter (OTC) market appeared not to be one of the major drivers of
investor demand during Q2 2010, once ETFs, futures, and retail activity are taken into account.
However, it remained an important source of transactions and anecdotal evidence points to very high
levels of buy-side interest in the OTC market at times during the April to June period. Market
turnover is understood to have soared in May and June in the OTC market, for the same reasons,
investors sought out gold using other vehicles, namely, protection against tail risk,
diversification and wealth preservation. In particular, some evidence would suggest that investors
were purchasing gold in the form of allocated metal accounts. However, some hedge funds may have
started to reduce their exposure to gold on or just after the mid-May and mid-June price highs.
Bars and coins
The latest available data on coin and bar sales corresponds to Q1 2010 (comprehensive Q2 2010
data will be released in late-August). Bar and coin retail demand for gold, which includes demand
for coins, small bars, medals and imitation coins, remained strong during the first quarter. It
rose by 23.0 tonnes to 157.0 tonnes in Q1 2010 from 134.0 tonnes in the previous quarter, an
increase of 17.1%. This largely reflected an increase in investment demand primarily in the
developed countries where concerns over currency weakness were already in evidence, but it was also
followed closely by some other emerging markets. In particular, investment demand was very strong
in China during Q1 2010 reaching a record 26.8 tonnes over the quarter. Moreover, anecdotal
evidence suggests that demand for physical bars in China in Q2 2010 was even stronger than in the
previous quarter, as many investors put parts of their savings into gold as an alternative to other
investments, including real estate, where the government has taken a more strict control on
mortgage loans and rates started to rise since April.
On the other hand, overall European investment demand in Q1 2010 fell from its 2009 level. However,
anecdotal evidence suggests the second quarter of 2010 experienced renewed investment activity:
news
Chart 7: American Eagle bullion sales
Source: The United States Mint
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July 2010
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6
reports in the UK of a possible increase in capital gains tax lifted demand for legal tender
bullion coins, as these coins are exempt from such taxation. In continental Europe, a negative
outlook for the euro saw a rise in demand for hard currencies and in particular gold bullion.
Similarly, in the US, second quarter data on American Eagle bullion coin sales from the US Mint
shows a strong increase in demand relative to the first quarter and close to levels experienced
during previous periods of financial distress. Demand for 1-ounce coins and fractional amounts in
Q2 2010 was 402,000 ounces (12.5 tonnes), compared to 271,000 ounces (8.4 tonnes) in Q1 2010 as
investors look for alternatives to fiat currencies. Investors wishing to purchase gold coins or
small bars can find a list of retail dealers on our website at: http://www.invest.
gold.org/sites/en/where_to_invest/directory.
Lease rates
The implied gold lease rate is the difference between the dollar interest rate and the
equivalent duration gold forward ratethe rate at which gold holders are willing to lend gold in
exchange for dollars (also known as the swap rate). The lease rate ended the quarter slightly
negative at -0.03%. Both components rose, but the 3-month gold swap rate rose further reaching
levels as high as 0.70% to subsequently drop to 0.57% in line with trading volumes in the
derivatives market. The other component, the 3-month US Libor, rose as well, but it settled around
0.53%
by the end of the second quarter from 0.30% in early April. Consequently, the implied gold lease
rate turned negative in May and June, similar to levels experienced in the second half of 2009.
Chart 8: Implied 3-month gold lease rate
Source: Bloomberg, WGC
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July 2010
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7
MARKET AND ECONOMIC INFLUENCES
The second quarter of 2010 was marred by mixed
economic news around the world, some of which heightened
the concerns that a double dip recession may be a distinct
possibility in some parts of the world and that the global
economic recovery may be slower to materialise than
previously anticipated. This, in turn, had a negative
impact on equity markets and risky financial assets
around the globe, including those commodities which are
more linked to the business cycle (such as oil and
industrial metals). At the same time, demand for assets
such as US Treasuries and gold, which tend to perform well
in periods of crisis, increased. Consequently, US
Treasuries and gold were once again among the few assets
that had a positive price performance during the period
under review.
Chart 9: Performance of various asset classes in
local currency (Q2/Q1 2010% change)
Source: Barclays Capital, MSCI Barra, WGC
In Europe, and especially within the Eurozone, the
sovereign debt crisis that started to unfold by the end of
2009 and put many of the members finances in the
spotlight reached its peak in late Q1 2010 and early Q2
2010. By 9 May, European Union leaders created the
European Financial Stability Facility and approved a US$1
trillion rescue package aimed at stabilising the worst
affected countries as well as the euro, which by then had
lost more than 15% against the US dollar from its high in
25 November 2009. The measures did not appease financial
markets right away as many investors questioned whether
the package would be a viable solution in the long term.
Later, another blow came after Hungary unexpectedly
announced its budget deficit was much wider than
previously reported in early June. However, sentiment
started to improve among bond-holders and other market
participants, as austerity measures in Greece and other
countries have been approved. Consequently, the euro
started to reverse its downward trend by 8 June 2010 after
having lost a cumulative 21.2% versus the US dollar since
25 November 2009. Correspondingly, from 18 May 2010 the
British pound started to rise after weakening 14.7%
against the US dollar from its Q4 2009 peak on 16 November
2009. In spite of these recent moves, the European
sovereign debt crisis still poses downside risk
to the region and, to some extent, the global economy.
Consequently, we expect investment activity in the gold
market going forward to remain buoyant as investors look
for asset diversification, protection against downside
risk, wealth preservation and liquidity, as evidenced by
gold purchases in the western markets during Q2 2010.
In the US, economic news was more mixed. While growth
indicators were generally in line with expectations (for
example, initial real GDP estimates for Q1 2010 showed a
2.7% quarter-on-quarter growth not too far below market
expectations of 3.0%), other statistics were less
promising. In particular, job creation as measured by
change in nonfarm payrolls has been disappointing as many
temporary jobs created for the census have since been
removed, the unemployment rate remains high at around 9.5%
(June), and there is still a lot of slack in the economy.
Inflation, on the other hand, remains low but its
evolution will depend on how long interest rates are kept
at current levels and how fast they lift rates thereafter.
Fed officials have expressed some concerns regarding the
consequences of tightening monetary policy too early,
signalling that the Fed funds rate may remain low for some
time. This view is shared by Wall Street as analysts
predict that the Fed will maintain rates at current levels
for a prolonged period of time. Consequently, the Fed also
has to manage the risk that leaving rates low for too long
may increase the likelihood of higher infl ation in the
longer term. In a study published in February 2010 titled
Linking Global Money Supply Growth to Gold and to Future
Infl ation the WGC finds that there is a direct link
between global money supply and the price of gold.
Furthermore, there is evidence that gold is an indicator
of higher money velocity and, thus, increasing future infl
ation. This, in turn, justifi es some investors concerns
|
|
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July 2010
|
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|
8
that quantitative easing policies which have resulted in
rapid money supply growth could eventually lead to higher
infl ation.
Chart 10: Change in US nonfarm payrolls
(month-over-month) and US total unemployment rate (%
sa, inverted)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
During the first half of 2010, and in particular in
the second quarter, the US dollar and the Japanese yen
have
benefitted from investors shedding risk in euro and
sterling-denominated assets. However, in the long-run,
many investors have expressed concerns over the large deficits and debt burdens that are also prevalent in the US
and Japan. This, in turn, will continue to benefit the
gold market which has once again started to be seen as a
currency alternative and hedge not only to the dollar but
to other fiat currencies, as was the case in Q2 2010.
Emerging markets had a more positive tone during Q2 2010.
Equity markets in general suffered some contagion from
their developed market counterparts, but many developing
economies have generally recovered faster than western
markets. For example, Chinese growth continues at a
healthy pace (11.9% year-on-year in Q1 2010 and 10.3%
year-on-year in Q2 2010 respectively) and there are
indications that the financial stimulus has provided a
solid backdrop for the economic expansion. However, China
has not escaped unscathed: headline infl ation is rising
and any potential deceleration in the European economy or
unforeseen contagion to other regions could have a
negative effect on Chinese exports. To date, local Chinese
demand appears to have offset
whatever slack has been produced by declining exports to
the European region. On 19 June 2010, the Peoples Bank of
China (PBoC) announced its intention to increase the flexibility of the yuan (CNY) regime and further improve the
exchange rate mechanism. While any appreciation of the
yuan against the dollar will likely be gradual, the WGC
expects that in the long run a stronger yuan will be
positive for the gold jewellery market, as the purchasing
power of the Chinese consumer will increase. Given that
gold is globally traded in US dollars, holding all other
variables constant, an appreciation in local currency
versus the US dollar makes gold more attractive for those
consumers.
Chart 11: Chinese real GDP growth (%YoY) and
CPI inflation (%YoY)
Source:
National Bureau of Statistics, China Economic Information Net
Similarly, Indias growth also remains resilient. In
Q1 2010, real GDP grew at 8.6%, the fastest pace in two
years as investment in infrastructure, exports, and
industrial output continue to expand. Given the importance
of both India and China for the gold jewellery market
(collectively, more than 45% of global jewellery demand in
2009), economic recovery tends to be accompanied by a
positive outlook. However, in the case
of India, higher gold prices coupled with a weaker rupee
during the quarter hampered the ability of consumers to
access the gold market at the same rate as during the first quarter. Nevertheless, indications of investor
activity remain strong as noted by the development of new
investment vehicles, including ETFs, and saving schemes,
as infl ation has risen at a double-digit pace during the
recent months. Gold remains an important vehicle for
wealth preservation.
|
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July 2010
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|
9
It is important to note that while gold continued to reach
record highs during Q2 2010, its price, relative to the
price of various other asset classes does not appear to be
overvalued by historical standards. In a forthcoming
paper, the WGC conducts a more thorough analysis of the
issue, but a simple comparison of gold price relative to
the MSCI US equity index shows that gold remains below
levels seen in the late 80s and even more so relative to
the mid and late 70s. Similarly, gold does not appear
overvalued relative to international equities, as measured
by the MSCI World ex US index, the S&P Goldman Sachs
Commodity Index or even the Barclays Capital US Treasury
Aggregate.
Chart 12: Relative performance* of selected
assets relative to the price of gold (Jan 73 = 100)
Source: Bloomberg, MSCI Barra, Standard and
Poors, Barclays Capital, WGC
|
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July 2010
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10
GOLD MARKET TRENDS
Jewellery
Global jewellery demand recovered strongly in the first quarter of 2010 compared with uncharacteristically
weak year-earlier levels, rising 43% to 407.7 tonnes.
Expressed in value terms, jewellery demand totalled
US$16.88 billion, 75% higher than in Q1 2009. With the
exception of Japan, the growth was driven exclusively by
non-western markets, where consumers appeared to have
adjusted their price expectations in the face of a 22%
rise in the average US dollar gold price in Q1 2010
relative to Q1 2009. Some, like India, also benefited
from local
currency appreciation which translated into gold prices
increasing at a slower rate. Similarly, the anticipation
of higher future gold prices encouraged consumers in these
markets to make advance gold jewellery purchases during
the first quarter as the price eased from the December
2009 highs. Additionally, further signs of stronger
economic growth were witnessed in some emerging economies,
which provided a more supportive backdrop for consumers.
At the country level, the strongest performing market over
the period was India, where demand rocketed by 291% to
147.5 tonnes, although relative to a very low base of just
37.7 tonnes in Q1 2009. Outside India, jewellery demand
posted a more modest rise of 11%, to 323.3 tonnes in the
first quarter of 2010 from 291.6 tonnes in the same
period the year before. Among the other strongest
performers were the UAE (+29%), Saudi Arabia (+25%), Hong
Kong (+23%) and Vietnam (+20%). Chinese jewellery off-take
increased by 11% to breach the 100-tonne mark, reaching
105.2 tonnes as demand was lifted by the Chinese New Year
holiday and strong domestic economic growth. Turkey
witnessed a 12% rise in demand to 18.4 tonnes,
representing a sharp rise relative to Q4 2009. In the US,
some retailers reported gains in US dollar sales; higher
gold prices, however, have resulted in evidence of demand
for lighter weight pieces and gold/silver combinations.
Similar trends were seen in Europe.
Preliminary reports on Q2 2010 demand trends in India
suggest a continuing improvement in demand for jewellery
early in the quarter relative to a year earlier, as a
result of various festivals and religious celebrations.
June, however, is usually the annual off-peak season for
the Indian markets, and consumer sentiment appears to have
turned sluggish given the higher price levels and relative
volatility in the market. The WGC anticipates that demand
will likely pick up towards the end of the
Please note that data on jewellery and
industrial demand are released with a lag; the
latest data is for Q1 2010. Data for the second
quarter of 2010 will be released in late-August
2010.
Chart 13: Jewellery demand in tonnes and US$ billions
Source:
GFMS
Chart 14: Tonnage growth in jewellery demand by
country (Q4 10 vs. Q1 09, % change)
Source:
GFMS
|
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|
|
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|
|
|
July 2010
|
|
11
|
|
|
summer as the main festive season starts and
continues throughout November. Similarly, anecdotal
evidence suggests jewellery demand in China slowed down
somewhat by the end of Q2 2010 as market volatility rose,
but consumption started to pick up as prices came down
from their June highs and volatility started to tame down.
Overall, Chinese demand in the first half of the year has
benefited from healthy economic growth. In the US and
other western markets, retail activity remains slow as the
economic recovery has yet to pick up speed.
Industrial applications
During Q1 2010, gold demand for industrial and dental
applications continued its progressive recovery from the
very depressed levels of Q1 2009, gaining 31% to 103.2
tonnes. This was almost on a par with the 103.3 tonnes
seen in the final quarter of 2009. The strength largely
came from the electronics sector, where off-take surged
40% to 69.9 tonnes as economies began to emerge from
recession and consumers seemed more willing to spend on
discretionary items such as laptops and mobile phones.
Japan led the way with a near 60% recovery in demand from
this sector, while electronics demand from the United
States recorded a 50% year-on-year rise as the industry
there saw some rebound from the depths
of recession. Elsewhere, almost every market recorded
healthy double-digit growth on rising optimism of a more
robust global economy. A 27% rise in demand from the other
industrial and decorative segment was largely driven by an
improving economic outlook, coupled with a greater level
of price acceptance.
Chart 15: Industrial demand by category in tonnes
Source:
GFMS
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
July 2010
|
|
|
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|
12
SUPPLY
Mine production and recycled gold
Total gold supply in the first quarter of 2010 declined by 24% to 949 tonnes, from 1,250
tonnes in Q1 2009. A significant slowdown in recycling activity from record year-earlier levels
combined with subdued sales from the official sector kept a lid on supply, which was further
constrained by producer de-hedging activity. Mine production was the only element of supply to
register an increase, up 5% to 611 tonnes from Q1 2009 levels. It fell, however, by 9% relative to
Q4 2009, as increased production at a number of mines was outweighed by reductions elsewhere.
Notably, there were significant reductions in production from large-scale operations, including
Indonesias Grasberg, USs Goldstrike and Newmonts Nevada mines.
Producer de-hedging activity slowed sharply from the previous quarter to minor levels (-20 tonnes),
although this was above the levels of Q1 2009, a quarter in which de-hedging was virtually
non-existent. AngloGold Ashanti continued to reduce its hedge book and has suggested it may even
accelerate the closure of its hedge positions.
Recycling activity fell sharply in Q1 2010 in comparison with the record levels set in Q1 2009,
dropping 43% to 343 tonnes. Firstly, expectations on higher prices and better economic conditions
across a number of key markets, particularly India, may have discouraged consumers from selling
back their old gold. Secondly, a lack of near-market supplies of old gold has slowed sales, after
the surge in selling back experienced during 2009 cleared out much of the gold holdings that were
available for these purposes. However, the picture is slightly different in the western markets,
where recycling activity has increased as prices rise and awareness of the potential for recycling
becomes more widespread, even though they usually contribute a smaller share to this kind of
supply.
Please note that data on mine production and recycled gold are released with a lag; the
latest data is for Q1 2010. Data for the second quarter of 2010 will be released in late-August
2010.
Chart 16: Mine production and recycled gold supply in tonnes
Chart 17: Net producer hedging in tonnes
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|
July 2010
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13
The official sector
The Bank for International Settlements announced in its March 2010 annual report that its
holdings of gold had increased by 346 tonnes over the year, as a result of gold swap operations.
The Banks own investment gold was unchanged over the year, at 120 tonnes. The swaps, under which
the Bank exchanges currencies for physical gold, were conducted with commercial banks. The Bank has
an obligation to return the gold at the end of the contract, thought to be less than one year.
The swaps were conducted between December 2009 and March 2010, as the European sovereign debt
crisis was beginning to build. The transactions provide a clear example of golds effectiveness in
providing liquidity during periods of financial distress. Some central banks also mobilized their
gold reserves during the height of the financial crisis. The Swedish Riksbank, for example, used
its gold reserves to finance temporary liquidity assistance.
As well as having a role to play in reserve managers liquidity portfolios, gold has a role to play
in the investment portfolio. In a new WGC study, The Importance of Gold in Reserve Asset
Management, we use portfolio optimizer models to show that the efficient frontier of a typical
developing or emerging market central bank can be enhanced by adding gold. How much gold depends on
the central banks risk appetite: we find that an allocation to gold of between 2.4 and 8.5% is
optimal for a bank with around a 5% risk tolerance. At a risk tolerance of 8.3%, the allocation to
gold increases to 29%.
The results are not intended as a strategic asset allocation recommendation for any specific
central bank, not least because central banks actual portfolios will differ from the one used in
the illustration, as will their risk and return expectations, and constraints. The allocations of
emerging and developing countries that already hold gold in their portfolios vary widely in
practice because of these and other factors. China, for example, currently holds 1.6% of its
reserves in gold, while Russia, which has bought 71 tonnes of gold to date this year, holds 5.8% of
its reserves in gold. The appropriate allocation to gold for a central bank will depend on its
investment policy objectives and guidelines, its existing asset mix, its risk tolerance, its
tactical view on market trends and its liquidity requirements. A full copy of the report can be
downloaded from our reserve asset website at: http:// www.reserveasset.gold.org.
Top 40 Official Gold Holdings*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tonnes |
|
% of reserves** |
|
1 |
|
United States |
|
|
8,134 |
|
|
|
72.8 |
|
2 |
|
Germany |
|
|
3,407 |
|
|
|
68.1 |
|
3 |
|
IMF |
|
|
2,967 |
|
|
|
1 |
) |
4 |
|
Italy |
|
|
2,452 |
|
|
|
67.0 |
|
5 |
|
France |
|
|
2,435 |
|
|
|
65.6 |
|
6 |
|
China |
|
|
1,054 |
|
|
|
1.6 |
|
7 |
|
Switzerland |
|
|
1,040 |
|
|
|
24.1 |
|
8 |
|
Japan |
|
|
765 |
|
|
|
2.8 |
|
9 |
|
Russia |
|
|
669 |
|
|
|
5.5 |
|
10 |
|
Netherlands |
|
|
613 |
|
|
|
55.2 |
|
11 |
|
India |
|
|
558 |
|
|
|
7.5 |
|
12 |
|
ECB |
|
|
501 |
|
|
|
27.1 |
|
13 |
|
Taiwan |
|
|
424 |
|
|
|
4.3 |
|
14 |
|
Portugal |
|
|
383 |
|
|
|
82.2 |
|
15 |
|
Venezuela |
|
|
364 |
|
|
|
47.6 |
|
16 |
|
Saudi Arabia |
|
|
323 |
|
|
|
2.8 |
|
17 |
|
United Kingdom |
|
|
310 |
|
|
|
16.6 |
|
18 |
|
Lebanon |
|
|
287 |
|
|
|
26.1 |
|
19 |
|
Spain |
|
|
282 |
|
|
|
37.1 |
|
20 |
|
Austria |
|
|
280 |
|
|
|
56.1 |
|
21 |
|
Belgium |
|
|
228 |
|
|
|
34.8 |
|
22 |
|
Algeria |
|
|
174 |
|
|
|
4.3 |
|
23 |
|
Philippines |
|
|
165 |
|
|
|
13.7 |
|
24 |
|
Libya |
|
|
144 |
|
|
|
5.3 |
|
25 |
|
Singapore |
|
|
127 |
|
|
|
2.4 |
|
26 |
|
Sweden |
|
|
126 |
|
|
|
10.2 |
|
27 |
|
South Africa |
|
|
125 |
|
|
|
11.2 |
|
28 |
|
BIS |
|
|
120 |
|
|
|
1 |
) |
29 |
|
Turkey |
|
|
116 |
|
|
|
5.7 |
|
30 |
|
Greece |
|
|
112 |
|
|
|
75.0 |
|
31 |
|
Romania |
|
|
104 |
|
|
|
8.1 |
|
32 |
|
Poland |
|
|
103 |
|
|
|
4.6 |
|
33 |
|
Thailand |
|
|
84 |
|
|
|
2.2 |
|
34 |
|
Australia |
|
|
80 |
|
|
|
7.4 |
|
35 |
|
Kuwait |
|
|
79 |
|
|
|
13.2 |
|
36 |
|
Egypt |
|
|
76 |
|
|
|
8.1 |
|
37 |
|
Kazakhstan |
|
|
74 |
|
|
|
9.5 |
|
38 |
|
Indonesia |
|
|
73 |
|
|
|
3.9 |
|
39 |
|
Denmark |
|
|
67 |
|
|
|
3.3 |
|
40 |
|
Pakistan |
|
|
65 |
|
|
|
16.7 |
|
|
|
|
Source: IMF, national data, WGC |
|
|
|
|
* |
|
This table was updated in June, 2010 and reports data available at that time. Data are
taken from the International Monetary Funds International Financial Statistics (IFS), June 2010
edition, and other sources where applicable. IFS data are two months in arrears, so holdings are as
of April 2010 for most countries, March 2010 or earlier for late reporters. The table does not list
all gold holders: countries which have not reported their gold holdings to the IMF in the last six
months are not included, while other countries are known to hold gold but they do not report their
holdings publicly. Where the WGC knows of movements that are not reported to the IMF or misprints,
changes have been made. The countries showing as having 0.0 tonnes of gold report some gold but
less than 0.05 tonnes to the IMF. |
|
** |
|
The percentage share held in gold of total foreign reserves, as calculated by the World Gold
Council. The value of gold holdings is calculated using the end-April gold price of US$1,179.25 per
troy ounce (there are 32,151 troy ounces in a tonne). Data for the value of other reserves are
taken from IFS, table Total Reserves minus Gold. |
|
1) |
|
BIS and IMF balance sheets do not allow this percentage to be calculated. In the case
of any countries, up to date data for other reserves are not available. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
July 2010
|
|
|
14
KEY DATA
Gold price
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Q3 09 |
|
|
Q4 09 |
|
|
Q1 10 |
|
|
Q2 10 |
|
|
Gold (US$/oz);
London PM fix average |
|
|
960.00 |
|
|
|
1,099.63 |
|
|
|
1,109.12 |
|
|
|
1,196.74 |
|
% QOQ |
|
|
4.1 |
% |
|
|
14.5 |
% |
|
|
0.9 |
% |
|
|
7.9 |
% |
% YOY |
|
|
10.1 |
% |
|
|
38.4 |
% |
|
|
22.1 |
% |
|
|
29.8 |
% |
Source: The London Bullion Market Association, WGC
Volatility2 (%) to end-June 2010
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1-month |
|
|
3-month |
|
|
6-month |
|
|
1-year |
|
|
Gold (US$/oz) |
|
|
15.8 |
% |
|
|
15.7 |
% |
|
|
17.2 |
% |
|
|
17.1 |
% |
Source: The London Bullion Market Association, WGC
Market capitalisation
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Value (US$ bn) |
|
|
Above-ground stocks of gold 3 |
|
|
6,371.7 |
|
ETFs (as at 30 June 2010) 4 |
|
|
81.6 |
|
Notional value of net long non-commercial and non-reportable
positions as reported by CFTC gold futures (at 30 June 2010) |
|
|
36.0 |
|
Source: GFMS, LBMA, CFTC, WGC
Demand (cumulative Q2 2009-Q1 2010)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
% |
|
|
% |
|
|
Value |
|
|
% |
|
|
|
Tonnes |
|
|
QOQ1 |
|
|
YOY1 |
|
|
($ bn) |
|
|
YOY1 |
|
|
Jewellery |
|
|
1,900 |
|
|
|
8 |
% |
|
|
-8 |
% |
|
|
62.7 |
|
|
|
13 |
% |
Identifiable investment |
|
|
900 |
|
|
|
-32 |
% |
|
|
-45 |
% |
|
|
29.4 |
|
|
|
-27 |
% |
of which ETFs
and similar products |
|
|
156 |
|
|
|
-75 |
% |
|
|
-78 |
% |
|
|
5.0 |
|
|
|
-73 |
% |
Industrial and Dental |
|
|
398 |
|
|
|
6 |
% |
|
|
0 |
% |
|
|
13.1 |
|
|
|
12 |
% |
Source: GFMS, WGC
Supply (cumulative Q2 2009-Q1 2010)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
% |
|
|
% |
|
|
Value |
|
|
% |
|
|
|
Tonnes |
|
|
QOQ1 |
|
|
YOY1 |
|
|
($ bn) |
|
|
YOY1 |
|
|
Mining output |
|
|
2,597 |
|
|
|
1 |
% |
|
|
6 |
% |
|
|
85.3 |
|
|
|
25 |
% |
Net producer hedging |
|
|
-273 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total mine supply |
|
|
2,324 |
|
|
|
0 |
% |
|
|
4 |
% |
|
|
76.3 |
|
|
|
23 |
% |
Official sales |
|
|
-6 |
|
|
|
-115 |
% |
|
|
-103 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
-0.1 -102 |
% |
Recycled gold |
|
|
1,407 |
|
|
|
-16 |
% |
|
|
-3 |
% |
|
|
46.4 |
|
|
|
14 |
% |
Source: GFMS, WGC
|
|
|
1 |
|
Quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year % change in rolling 4-quarter totals. |
|
2 |
|
Annualised daily return volatility. |
|
3 |
|
Based on 2009 volume and Q2 2010 average gold price |
|
4 |
|
Data: www.exchangetradedgold.com;
www.etfsecurities.com; www.ishares.com; Zurich
Kantonalbank; Finans Portföy;
www.Deutsche-Boerse.com; www.juliusbaer.com. |
Performance
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gold |
|
|
BarCap US |
|
|
|
|
|
|
MSCI World |
|
|
DJ UBS |
|
|
Brent crude oil |
|
|
Dow Jones/Wilshire |
|
|
Trade-weighted |
|
|
|
(US$/oz) |
|
|
Treasury Aggregate |
|
|
S&P 500 |
|
|
ex-US |
|
|
Commodity Index |
|
|
(US$/bbl) |
|
|
REITs Index |
|
|
US$ |
|
|
1 month |
|
|
2.1 |
% |
|
|
1.9 |
% |
|
|
-5.2 |
% |
|
|
-1.4 |
% |
|
|
0.3 |
% |
|
|
0.2 |
% |
|
|
-5.4 |
% |
|
|
-0.4 |
% |
3 months |
|
|
11.6 |
% |
|
|
4.7 |
% |
|
|
-11.4 |
% |
|
|
-13.4 |
% |
|
|
-4.8 |
% |
|
|
-9.1 |
% |
|
|
-4.1 |
% |
|
|
3.6 |
% |
6 months |
|
|
13.2 |
% |
|
|
5.9 |
% |
|
|
-6.7 |
% |
|
|
-12.2 |
% |
|
|
-9.6 |
% |
|
|
-4.3 |
% |
|
|
5.3 |
% |
|
|
5.4 |
% |
1 year |
|
|
34.1 |
% |
|
|
6.7 |
% |
|
|
14.4 |
% |
|
|
7.5 |
% |
|
|
2.7 |
% |
|
|
8.1 |
% |
|
|
55.7 |
% |
|
|
1.4 |
% |
Volatility2 (1-year) |
|
|
17.1 |
% |
|
|
4.7 |
% |
|
|
18.8 |
% |
|
|
20.0 |
% |
|
|
19.7 |
% |
|
|
32.5 |
% |
|
|
35.5 |
% |
|
|
8.0 |
% |
Source: Global Insight, Barclays Capital, WGC; performance calculations based on total return indices unless not applicable.
Correlations (3 years ending 25 June 2010, weekly returns)
|
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|
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|
BarCap |
|
|
BarCap |
|
|
BarCap |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DJ/ |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Trade |
|
|
Brent |
|
|
S&P GS |
|
|
R/J |
|
|
DJ UBS |
|
|
BarCap |
|
|
US |
|
|
US |
|
|
US High |
|
|
|
|
|
|
DJ |
|
|
|
|
|
|
MSCI |
|
|
Wilshire |
|
|
|
Gold |
|
|
-weighted |
|
|
crude oil |
|
|
Commodity |
|
|
CRB |
|
|
Commodity |
|
|
1-3 month |
|
|
Treasury |
|
|
Credit |
|
|
Yield |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Industrial |
|
|
Russell |
|
|
World |
|
|
REITs |
|
|
|
(US$/oz) |
|
|
US dollar |
|
|
(US$/bbl) |
|
|
Index |
|
|
Index |
|
|
Index |
|
|
T-bills |
|
|
Index |
|
|
Index |
|
|
Index |
|
|
S&P 500 |
|
|
Average |
|
|
3000 |
|
|
ex-US |
|
|
Index |
|
|
Gold (US$/oz) |
|
|
1.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Trade-weighted US dollar |
|
|
-0.48 |
|
|
|
1.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Brent crude oil (US$/bbl) |
|
|
0.36 |
|
|
|
-0.49 |
|
|
|
1.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
S&P GS Commodity Index |
|
|
0.36 |
|
|
|
-0.59 |
|
|
|
0.93 |
|
|
|
1.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R/J CRB Index |
|
|
0.39 |
|
|
|
-0.63 |
|
|
|
0.88 |
|
|
|
0.97 |
|
|
|
1.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DJ UBS Commodity Index |
|
|
0.41 |
|
|
|
-0.64 |
|
|
|
0.82 |
|
|
|
0.94 |
|
|
|
0.98 |
|
|
|
1.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BarCap 1-3 month T-bills |
|
|
0.05 |
|
|
|
-0.05 |
|
|
|
-0.01 |
|
|
|
0.03 |
|
|
|
-0.02 |
|
|
|
-0.04 |
|
|
|
1.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BarCap US Treasury Index |
|
|
0.06 |
|
|
|
0.00 |
|
|
|
-0.32 |
|
|
|
-0.32 |
|
|
|
-0.33 |
|
|
|
-0.30 |
|
|
|
0.19 |
|
|
|
1.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BarCap US Credit Index |
|
|
-0.06 |
|
|
|
-0.21 |
|
|
|
-0.07 |
|
|
|
-0.02 |
|
|
|
-0.01 |
|
|
|
0.02 |
|
|
|
-0.04 |
|
|
|
0.62 |
|
|
|
1.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BarCap US High Yield Index |
|
|
-0.06 |
|
|
|
-0.38 |
|
|
|
0.33 |
|
|
|
0.39 |
|
|
|
0.42 |
|
|
|
0.44 |
|
|
|
-0.22 |
|
|
|
-0.30 |
|
|
|
0.39 |
|
|
|
1.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
S&P 500 |
|
|
-0.05 |
|
|
|
-0.43 |
|
|
|
0.43 |
|
|
|
0.46 |
|
|
|
0.48 |
|
|
|
0.47 |
|
|
|
-0.15 |
|
|
|
-0.42 |
|
|
|
0.01 |
|
|
|
0.66 |
|
|
|
1.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DJ Industrial Average |
|
|
-0.09 |
|
|
|
-0.37 |
|
|
|
0.39 |
|
|
|
0.42 |
|
|
|
0.44 |
|
|
|
0.42 |
|
|
|
-0.14 |
|
|
|
-0.42 |
|
|
|
-0.01 |
|
|
|
0.62 |
|
|
|
0.98 |
|
|
|
1.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Russell 3000 |
|
|
-0.04 |
|
|
|
-0.44 |
|
|
|
0.44 |
|
|
|
0.47 |
|
|
|
0.50 |
|
|
|
0.48 |
|
|
|
-0.16 |
|
|
|
-0.43 |
|
|
|
0.01 |
|
|
|
0.66 |
|
|
|
1.00 |
|
|
|
0.97 |
|
|
|
1.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MSCI World ex-US |
|
|
0.13 |
|
|
|
-0.70 |
|
|
|
0.53 |
|
|
|
0.60 |
|
|
|
0.64 |
|
|
|
0.63 |
|
|
|
-0.19 |
|
|
|
-0.30 |
|
|
|
0.18 |
|
|
|
0.69 |
|
|
|
0.84 |
|
|
|
0.81 |
|
|
|
0.85 |
|
|
|
1.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
DJ/ Wilshire REITs Index |
|
|
-0.01 |
|
|
|
-0.32 |
|
|
|
0.29 |
|
|
|
0.30 |
|
|
|
0.33 |
|
|
|
0.32 |
|
|
|
-0.06 |
|
|
|
-0.39 |
|
|
|
-0.04 |
|
|
|
0.51 |
|
|
|
0.79 |
|
|
|
0.75 |
|
|
|
0.80 |
|
|
|
0.62 |
|
|
|
1.00 |
|
Source: Global Insight, Barclays Capital, WGC; performance calculations based on total return indices unless not applicable
|
|
|
|
|
|
July 2010
|
|
|
15
A WEALTH OF INFORMATION
The indispensable source of information for investing in gold
www.marketintelligence.gold.org
The World Gold Council invites you to explore the
Market Intelligence section of its website, one of the
most comprehensive sources of information about the gold
market and golds strategic investment properties. The
information is housed in four sections of the site: Market
Knowledge, Investing in Gold, Research & Statistics, and
Gold as a Reserve Asset.
Market Knowledge
Investors new to gold are encouraged to read the overviews
of how the gold market functions and the principal
components of supply and demand: Central banks,
derivatives markets, industrial users, investors,
jewellery consumers, mining companies and recyclers of
gold scrap.
Investing in Gold
Learn about golds unique properties that enable investors
to employ this asset to manage portfolio risk and preserve
capital.
Gold Research & Statistics
Access a vast library of research and information,
including golds historical prices, central bank reserve
statistics, quarterly supply and demand data for gold, as
well as correlation and volatility charts and tables.
Academic and private sector research addresses a variety
of subjects related to gold, such as infl ation and the US
dollar.
Gold as a Reserve Asset
Learn why central banks and multilateral organisations
such as the IMF hold gold as a reserve asset.
Issued by:
World Gold Council
55 Old Broad Street
London
EC2M 1RX
United Kingdom
www.gold.org
Tel:
+44 (0)20 7826 4700
Fax: +44 (0)20 7826 4799
Disclaimer
This report is published by the World Gold Council (WGC), 55 Old Broad Street, London EC2M
1RX, United Kingdom. Copyright © 2010. All rights reserved. This report is the property of WGC and
is protected by US and international laws of copyright, trademark and other intellectual property
laws. This report is provided solely for general information and educational purposes. The
information in this report is based upon information generally available to the public from sources
believed to be reliable. WGC does not undertake to update or advise of changes to the information
in this report. Expression of opinion are those of the author and are subject to change without
notice. The information in this report is provided as an as is basis. WGC makes no express or
implied representation or warranty of any kind concerning the information in this report,
including, without limitation, (i) any representation or warranty of merchantability or fitness
for a particular purpose or use, or (ii) any representation or warranty as to accuracy,
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WGC or its affiliates be liable for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the
information in this report and, in any event, WGC and its affiliates shall not be liable for any
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sell, gold, any gold related products or any other products, securities or investments. This report
does not, and should not be construed as acting to, sponsor, advocate, endorse or promote gold, any
gold related products or any other products, securities or investments.
This report does not purport to make any recommendations or provide any investment or other advice
with respect to the purchase, sale or other disposition of gold, any gold related products or any
other products, securities or investments, including, without limitation, any advice to the effect
that any gold related transaction is appropriate for any investment objective or financial
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other products, securities or investments should not be made in reliance on any of the statements
in this report. Before making any investment decision, prospective investors should seek advice
from their financial advisers, take into account their individual financial needs and
circumstances and carefully consider the risks associated with such investment decision.
|
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|
July 2010
|
|
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|
|
16
SPDR® GOLD TRUST has filed a registration statement (including a prospectus)
with the SEC for the offering to which this communication relates. Before you invest, you should
read the prospectus in that registration statement and other documents the issuer has filed with
the SEC for more complete information about the Trust and this offering. You may get these
documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC Web site at www.sec.gov. Alternatively, the Trust
or any Authorized Participant will arrange to send you the prospectus if you request it by calling
toll free at 1-866-320-4053 or contacting State Street Global Markets, LLC, One Lincoln Street,
Attn: SPDR® Gold Shares, 30th Floor, Boston, MA 02111.