fwp
Filed Pursuant To Rule 433
Registration No. 333-167132
August 4, 2010
Real Assets
Inflation Protection Solutions with Exchange Traded Products
BY ROB GUILIANO, SENIOR PORTFOLIO MANGER, US MULTI ASSET CLASS SOLUTIONS, STATE STREET GLOBAL
ADVISORS
AND TOM ANDERSON, CFA, HEAD OF STRATEGY AND RESEARCH, INTERMEDIARY BUSINESS GROUP, STATE STREET
GLOBAL ADVISORS
Global
demand for commodities and energy has reemerged and the stage has
been set for a classic inflationary environment. In the US, Fed has kept
policy rates artificially low while the money supply continues to
grow. As the world economy recovers, it could lead to heightened demand,
especially from emerging countries such as China and India. While supply is adequate for now,
concerns still exist if asset preferences shift.
Inflation will inevitably become an issue. One indicator of possible global reinflation
could be the growing global middle class. The World Bank estimates the global middle class to grow
from 460 million in 2000 (8% of population) to 1.2 billion by 2030 (14% of population).
In the short term, deflation seems to be the bigger concern. In the US, core inflation (inflation
minus food and energy prices) remains stable, up 1.8% for the 12 months ending May 2009. However,
true deflation is a rare occurrencesince 1929, the US has experienced only 6 years of
year-over-year headline deflation: 1930, 1931,1932,1938,1949, and 1954.1
Longer term, inflation will inevitably become an issue. Projected inflation rates for 2010 and 2014
remain at 4.7% and 4.2%, respectively.2 One indicator of possible global reinflation
could be the growing supply of money both in the US and abroad (see
Figure 1). In the US, the money
supply has grown at the highest rate since 2002. In addition, the Federal Reserves balance sheet
has expanded more than twofold since late 2008.
Some investors are looking for strategies that can deliver positive returns during rising inflation
conditions (see Figure 2). Considered non-traditional by investors, real assets are the opposite of
stocks and bondsthey are tangible physical things. But the strategies used by certain suitable
investors may take a broader approach, investing in bonds that are inflation-linked and in stocks
of companies involved in commodities or natural resources, among others.
Source: Federal Reserve
US Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) through December 2009
Source
Robert J. Shiller, Irrational Exuberance, April 2001 and Ibbotson Associates
WHAT ARE REAL ASSETS?
Real assets are tangible assets that are the building blocks of consumable and production
goods. Real assets are intrinsically valuable because of their utility. Each investment class in
the real assets category has the potential to generate incremental returns, both in terms of price
appreciation and income generation.
FIGURE 3: REAL ASSETS
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REAL ASSETS |
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EXAMPLE |
INFLATION LINKED BONDS
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TIPS, Linkers, OATs |
REAL ESTATE
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Direct, Equity REITS, Mortgage
REITS |
COMMODITIES
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Oil, Gold, Copper, Soybeans, Cattle |
GLOBAL NATURAL RESOURCE
STOCKS
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Oil & Gas, Energy & Equipment Services,
Metal & Mining, Paper & Forest
Products |
PRECIOUS METALS
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|
Gold, Silver, Platinum |
RENEWABLE RESOURCES
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Forest and Forest Products, Water,
Solar and Wind Power |
INFRASTRUCTURE
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Toll Roads, Ports, Airports, Utility
(Electricity, Gas, Water) Distribution |
COLLECTABLES
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|
Artwork, Coins, Cars |
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|
While investors may not have easy access to all real asset types, there are readily
available investment vehicles within many of the categories shown in Figure 3 above. Investors
seeking to build a real assets allocation using a broader approach may include the following
components:
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|
inflation-linked bonds such as US Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)
provide direct exposure to the US Treasury inflation-protected securities market. The coupon
payments and principal value on these securities are adjusted according to actual inflation
over the life of the bonds. Non-US inflation-linked securities are now also available to
investors. |
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|
real estate investment trusts (REITS) can provide broad exposure to the
commercial real estate market both in the US and abroad. There are a variety of REITs that
specialize in office, apartment, retail and industrial properties. REITS generally must pay
out 90% of their taxable income to their investors through dividends, which provides a regular
income stream. Furthermore, property values and rents have tended to increase during
inflationary periods, which can cause the value of REITS to increase. |
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|
commodities are raw perishable goods or basic production materials, such as
agricultural products, industrial metals, precious metals, oil and livestock. Commodity prices
generally respond quickly to economy-wide shocks and are widely recognized as leading
indicators of future inflation as they quickly react to changes in economic conditions. |
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global natural resource stocks represent ownership in manufacturers and
distributors of natural resources such as oil and gas, energy equipment and services, metal and
mining, and paper and forest products. When global demand for natural resources grows, the
increase in the underlying commodity prices historically generates higher profits for these
companies and translates into higher returns for investors. |
THE CASE FOR REAL ASSETS EXPOSURE
Stocks and bonds tend to generate meager returns during periods of rising inflation. Over the long
term, from 1930 to 2008, stocks as measured by the S&P 500s Index provided an average
return of 3.8% during periods of rising inflation; bonds provided an average annual return of 2.7%.
Over periods of stable or declining inflation, stocks provided annualized returns greater than
15.7%, with bonds delivering returns of greater than 7.9% (see Figure 4).
Asset
classes are represented by the S&P 500 Index,
Ibbotsons US Long-Term Govt. Bond Index,
based on annual calendar year returns with quarterly data. Source: SSgA and Morningstar. Rising
inflation refers to years in which inflation increases by more than 0.5% from the previous year;
declining inflation refers to years in which inflation decreases by more than 0.5% from previous
year, stable inflation refers to years in which inflation change is
between +0.5% and -0.5% from
previous year.
When stocks are volatile and bonds offer historically low yields, investors may seek to
generate positive returns by investing in assets that are either driving inflation, such as oil, or
offer protection during turbulent economic times, such as gold. These real assets have historically
outperformed stocks and bonds during periods of accelerating inflation and provided additional
potential diversification benefits for investors seeking to control portfolio volatility, according
to research and analysis.
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY NOT FOR USE WITH THE PUBLIC
2
A blend of real assets has historically demonstrated the ability to provide significant
inflation protection for suitable investors. From 1970-2009, a portfolio of 20% inflation-protected
bonds, 30% real estate investment trusts (REITs), 25% commodities, and 25% global natural resources
stocks has resulted in significantly higher returns than stocks and bonds in periods of rising
inflation. In periods of stable inflation, the blend of real assets offers comparable returns to
bonds and commodities. In periods of declining inflation, the real assets blend significantly
outperforms commodities (see Figure 5).
Source:
Federal Reserve. Asset classes are represented by the S&P 500
Index, Ibbotsons US Long-Term Govt. Bond Index, S&P GSCI TR index, and simulated Real Assets blend of indexes (20% Barclays Capital US TIPS Index, 30% Dow Jones REIT IndexSM, 25% S&P GSCI
Index (S&P GSCP® Index), and 25% MSCI World Natural Resources IndexSM. Based on annual calendar year returns with quarterly data.
Index performance does not reflect fees and expenses, and it is not possible to invest directly in an index/average. Past performance
is no guarantee of future results. Source: SSgA and Morningstar. Rising inflation refers to years in which inflation increases by more
than 0.5% from the previous year; declining inflation refers to years
in which inflation decreases by more than 0.5% from previous year;
stable inflation refers to years in which inflation change is between +0.5% and -0.5% from previous year.
IMPLEMENTING REAL ASSETS STRATEGIES WITH EXCHANGE TRADED PRODUCTS
Blending real assets is one investment strategy that seeks to capture higher risk-adjusted
returns, lower volatility, additional income and positive returns over inflation in otherwise
lukewarm markets. A combination of multiple real asset strategies using an index approach can
provide efficient, broad-based exposure to inflation-protected securities, REITs, commodities, and
natural resource stocks. Each underlying asset class would be assigned a strategic weight based on
its risk characteristics and return potential relative to other asset classes, and rebalanced to
these weights on a regular basis.
A real assets strategy can be easily implemented using exchange traded products, including exchange
traded funds (ETFs) and exchange traded notes (ETNs). There is a wide range of exchange traded
products available in the TIPS, REIT, natural resources stock, and commodity asset classes (see
Figure 6). Fixed income and commodities have been among the fastest growing categories in exchange
traded products in recent years.
FIGURE 6: ETFS THAT OFFER REAL ASSETS EXPOSURE
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SECTOR |
|
ASSETS (SMIL) |
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# OF ETFS |
COMMODITY
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$ |
68,461 .68 |
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36 |
|
ENERGY/NATURAL RESOURCES
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|
$ |
19,438.90 |
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48 |
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INFLATION PROTECTED BOND
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|
$ |
20,120.35 |
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7 |
|
REAL ESTATE
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$ |
13,774.42 |
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25 |
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TOTAL
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$ |
121,795.30 |
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116 |
|
Source: SSgA Strategy & Research, Bloomberg. As of 12/31/2009.
Using index returns, this real assets blend would have provided a return of 6.48% for the
period 01/01/1998 through 3/31/2009, with a standard deviation of 12.89%. The real asset blend
offered higher returns than large cap US equities and most of the individual real asset categories,
with lower volatility than all except US TIPS. The real asset blend also offered one of the most
attractive risk/return ratios, as demonstrated by its Sharpe ratio (see Figure 7).
FIGURE 7: REAL ASSETS RETURN AND RISK CHARACTERISTICS
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JANUARY 2000 DECEMBER 2009 |
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RETURN(%) |
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STD DEV(%) |
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SHARPE RATIO |
REAL ASSETS BLEND |
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10.92 |
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15.15 |
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0.5339 |
|
BARCLAYS U.S. GOVERNMENT
INFLATION-LINKED BOND INDEX |
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7.73 |
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6.72 |
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0.7285 |
|
DOW JONES U.S. SELECT REIT |
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10.67 |
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25.70 |
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0.3048 |
|
DOW JONES GLOBAL EX-U.S. SELECT
REAL ESTATE SECURITIES |
|
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9.43 |
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19.53 |
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|
0.3375 |
|
S&P GSCI |
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5.05 |
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25.31 |
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0.0875 |
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GOLD LONDON PM FIXING |
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14.12 |
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16.91 |
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0.6674 |
|
S&P ENERGY SELECT SECTOR INDEX |
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9.73 |
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22.30 |
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0.3092 |
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S&P OIL & GAS EXPLORATION &
PRODUCTION SELECT INDUSTRY INDEX |
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20.57 |
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29.66 |
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0.598 |
|
S&P OIL & GAS EQUIPMENT & SERVICES
SELECT INDUSTRY INDEX |
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10.56 |
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35.47 |
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0.2177 |
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S&P DEVELOPED EX-U.S. BMI ENERGY
SECTOR INDEX |
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14.18 |
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21.51 |
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0.5274 |
|
S&P METALS AND MINING SELECT
INDUSTRY INDEX |
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|
11.27 |
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35.67 |
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0.2364 |
|
GLOBAL TIPS
BLEND* |
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|
7.87 |
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|
9.20 |
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|
0.5476 |
|
* From March 1997 to Dec 2007 = 100%
Barclays U.S. Government Inflation Linked
Bond Index. From Dec 2007 to Dec 2009 =
100% DB Global Government ex US Inflation
Linked Bond Capped Index.
Source:
StyleADVISOR, SSgA Strategy & Research. Past performance is not a guarantee of future
results. Index performance is not meant
to represent the performance of any particular
ETF. Indices are unmanaged and not subject to
management fees and other expenses which would
reduce performance. It is not possible to invest
directly in an index. Real asset blend is
comprised of 10% Barclays U.S. Government
Inflation-linked Bond Index. 10% DB Global
Government ex US Inflation Linked Bond Capped
index, 15% Dow Jones U.S. Select REIT Index, 15%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Select Real Estate
Securities Index, 20% S&P GSCI Index, 5% Gold
London PM Fixing, 5% S&P Energy Select Sector
Index, 2.5% S&P Oil & Gas Exploration &
Production Select Industry Index, 2.5% S&P Oil &
Gas Equipment & Services Select Industry Index,
10% S&P Developed Ex-U.S. BMI Energy Sector
Index, 5% S&P Metals and Mining Select Industry
Index.
FOR
INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY. NOT FOR USE WITH THE PUBLIC.
3
A real assets blend could be constructed using strategic allocations at 20% inflation
protected securities, 30% global REITs, 25% natural resources/energy stocks, and 25% commodities.
This strategic allocation could be implemented using ETFs (see Figure 8) as follows:
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20% Inflation Protected Securities ETFs (TIPS) |
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30% REITs ETFs (15% US REITs, 15% non-US REITs) |
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25% Natural Resources/Energy ETFs |
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25% Commodity ETFs (15% broad-based commodity, 10% gold) |
ADDING REAL ASSETS TO AN EXISTING PORTFOLIO
When adding a real assets allocation to an existing portfolio, the key decisions are:
1. |
|
Determining the overall allocation to the real assets blend |
2. |
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Adjusting the overall asset allocation to incorporate the real
assets blend |
3. |
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Determining the allocations to each real asset segment. |
Consider an investor who determines that a 10% allocation to real assets is appropriate for a
portfolio currently invested 65% in equities and 35% in bonds. Real assets have both equity-like
risk/return profiles and bond-like income generation features. As a result, investors typically
shift allocations from both stocks and bonds to fund real asset allocations.
For this example, one-half of the allocation could come from the existing equity allocation, and
the other half from the bond allocation. The sample portfolios new asset allocation would be 60%
equities, 30% bonds, and 10% real assets. For the real assets blend used in Figure 7 on the
previous page, the allocation to each real assets segment would be 2% Treasury Inflation Protected
Securities, 3% REITs (divided between US and non-US REITS), 2.5% natural resources stocks, and 2.5%
commodities. From an overall portfolio standpoint, the historically low correlation of real assets
to the existing stock and bond holdings can improve the overall diversification of the portfolio. A
blended real asset portfolio had a correlation of 0.19 to bonds, as measured by the Barclays
Capital Aggregate Index, and a correlation 0.56 to stocks, as measured by the S&P 500 Index.
FOR
INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY. NOT FOR USE WITH THE PUBLIC.
4
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5
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1 |
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Bureau of Labor Statistics. |
2 |
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IMF Table 5a Summary of inflation. |
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY. NOT FOR USE WITH THE PUBLIC.
The views expressed in this white paper are those of its authors and are subject to change at
any time. These views do not necessarily reflect the views of State Street or others in the State
Street organization. The information we provide does not constitute investment advice and it should
not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a
security. It does not take into account any investors particular investment objectives,
strategies, tax status or investment horizon. We encourage investors to consult their tax or
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accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of,
nor liability for, decisions based on such information.
ETFs trade like stocks, are subject to
investment risk and will fluctuate in market
value.
Past performance is no guarantee of
future results.
Bond funds contain interest rate risk (as interest rates rise bond prices usually fall); the risk
of issuer default; and inflation risk.
REIT funds may be subject to a high degree of market risk due to lack of industry diversification.
REIT funds may be subject to other risks including, but not limited to, changes in real estate
values or economic conditions, credit risk and interest rate fluctuations and changes in the value
of the underlying property owned by the trust and defaults by borrowers.
Commodities and commodity-index-linked securities may be affected by changes in overall market
movements, changes in interest rates, and other factors such as weather, disease, embargoes, or
political and regulatory developments, as well as the trading activity of speculators and
arbitrageurs in the underlying commodities.
The general performance of the unmanaged index shown is based on data developed by third parties
(including FactSet and the benchmark provider) and may be subject to revision. The performance
reflects the reinvestment of dividends and other corporate actions, and is calculated in US
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The MSCI Index is a trademark of Morgan
Stanley Capital International.
GSCI® is a registered
trademark of Goldman, Sachs & Co.
Dow JonesSM and Dow Jones Total Stock Market IndexesSM are service marks of
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Participant and/or as an initial purchaser of shares of the SPDR Barclays Capital TIPS ETF.
Barclays Capital makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in the SPDR
Barclays Capital TIPS ETF or use of either the Barclays U.S. Government Inflation-Linked All
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© 2010 State Street Corporation. All Rights Reserved. IBG-2307 Exp. Date: 10/20/2010 IBG.EDU.RAIP.0710
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www.spdru.com
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FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY. NOT FOR USE WITH THE PUBLIC. |
6
First
issued: April 29, 2010. This Free Writing Prospectus is being filed
in reliance on Rule 164(b).
SPDR® GOLD TRUST has filed a registration statement (including a prospectus) with the SEC
for the offering to which this communication relates. Before you invest, you should read the
prospectus in that registration statement and other documents the issuer has filed with the SEC for
more complete information about the Trust and this offering. You may get these documents for free
by visiting EDGAR on the SEC Web site at www.sec.gov. Alternatively, the Trust or any Authorized
Participant will arrange to send you the prospectus if you request it by calling toll free at
1-866-320-4053 or contacting State Street Global Markets, LLC, One Lincoln Street, Attn: SPDR® Gold
Shares, 30th Floor, Boston, MA 02111.