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Filed Pursuant To Rule 433
Registration No. 333-167132
February 7, 2011 |
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2010 Year-End Update The Gold Market
PRICE TRENDS
The gold price continued its upward trend during 2010, ending the year at US $1,405.50/oz (Figure
1) on the London PM fix. This represented an increase of 29.6% for the year. The price climbed
$98.50 in the fourth quarter, or 7.5%. Concerns over the health of economic growth in the developed
world, quantitative easing, continued purchases from central banks in emerging markets, healthy
jewelry consumption in regions like China and usage in technological applications have all ensured
that gold demand remained strong.
THE VARYING SUPPLY AND DEMAND DYNAMICS OF GOLD
Like oil, gold supply is impacted by the ability of producers to identify and deliver newly mined
gold to the market. Unlike oil, however, gold is not consumed or destroyed in its use, and there is
the ability to recycle above-ground stocks to add to supply. Central banks, or the so-called
official sector, are significant owners of gold reserves and have been sellers of gold for the past
two decades. Since Q2 2009 however, central banks in aggregate have become the net buyers as
Western banks have ceased sales and emerging economies have added to their reserves. Over the past
5 years, 59% of gold supply came from newly mined production, 35% from recycling the fabricated
products such as jewelry, and 6% from net official sector sales (Figure 2).
Gold demand comes from three sources: jewelry, technology and investment. The primary source of
demand comes from jewelry, accounting for 57% of total demand over the past five years. Investment
demand, which includes both retail demand for gold coins and bars as well as demand for ETFs and
similar products, accounted for 31% of aggregate demand during the same period. Technology demand,
which comprises electronics consumption as well as medical and dental uses, represented the
remaining 12%.
The demand factors can vary considerably from year to year. Through the first 9 months of 2010,
investment demand had jumped to 37% of total demand and jewelry demand had fallen to 52%
(industrial demand was fairly level at 11%). Even the composition of investment demand varies
significantly from year to yeardemand for ETFs and similar products was approximately 46% of
total investment demand in 2009, versus 32% in the first 9 months of 2010 (Figure 3).
RECENT TRENDS IN GOLD SUPPLY AND DEMAND
In 2009 and 2010, the recovering global economy has impacted the drivers of gold demand and supply.
The fairly consistent rise in gold prices has led to increased supply from mining and recycling. At
the same time, jewelry, investment and technology demand has increased as well.
FIGURE 4: RECENT TRENDS IN GOLD SUPPLY AND DEMAND
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CURRENT GOLD DEMAND FACTORS |
TOTAL DEMAND
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Increasing2010 expected to exceed 2009. |
JEWELRY DEMAND
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Increasing2010 expected to exceed 2009, driven by India and China. |
INVESTMENT DEMAND
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Increasingstrong demand for gold bars and coins and ETF demand in Q2 2010 was second highest ever. |
TECHNOLOGY DEMAND
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Increasingdriven by growing consumer demand for electronics. |
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CURRENT GOLD SUPPLY FACTORS |
TOTAL SUPPLY
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Increasing2010 expected to trend higher to meet increased demand. |
MINING SUPPLY
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Increasinghigher mine production due to mine expansion and new supply from China, Australia
and US. |
RECYCLED GOLD SUPPLY
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Increasinghigher gold prices has led to greater
recycled supply. |
OFFICIAL SECTOR SUPPLY
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Decreasingcentral banks moved from net sellers to net purchasers in 2010. |
Source: World Gold Council, December 2010.
THE INVESTMENT CASE FOR GOLD
As with any asset class, investors turn to gold for both tactical and strategic investment reasons.
The tactical case has been driven by strong demand and tight supply for gold. The strategic case is
driven by the diversification benefits of gold.
GOLD AS A PORTFOLIO DIVERSIFIER
One of the most compelling reasons to own gold is to help diversify a portfolio. Golds
diversification benefits are manifold. As seen in Figure 5, golds correlation is exceptionally low
compared to traditional equities and bonds as well as to broader commodity indexes. Pease see
important risk information at the end of this update about investing in gold.
FIGURE 5: GOLD CORRELATION TO MAJOR ASSET CLASSES
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1) GOLD (LONDON PM FIXING)
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1.00 |
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2) COMMODITIES (S&P® GSCI COMMODITY INDEX)
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0.27 |
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3) US BONDS (BARCLAYS CAPITAL U.S. AGGREGATE INDEX)
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0.24 |
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4) INTERNATIONAL STOCKS (S&P GLOBAL EX-U.S. BMI INDEX)
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0.16 |
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5) REITS (DOW JONES U.S. SELECT REIT INDEX)
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0.08 |
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6) US STOCKS (S&P 500® INDEX)
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-0.01 |
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7) US DOLLAR (US DOLLAR INDEX)
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-0.41 |
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Source: Zephyr StyleADVISOR, SSgA Global ETF Strategy & Research, January 2001 to November 2010.
GOLD AS AN INFLATION HEDGE
Gold has been used as a hedge against inflation for centuries. Since 1973, when the price of gold
became free-floating, gold has provided an annualized real rate of return of 3.8% over the US
consumer price index (CPI). Historically, gold has seen its strongest price performance in years of
high inflation such as 1980, providing an average real return of 14.9% in years in which CPI has
been greater than 5%.1
GOLD AS A DOLLAR HEDGE
As illustrated in Figure 5, gold has historically demonstrated an inverse relationship to the
dominant global currencycurrently the US dollar. Over the past 10 years, the correlation of gold
to the US Dollar Index, a trade-weighted basket of non-US currencies, was -0.41. 2
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1 |
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GFMS, World Gold Council, December 2010. |
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2 |
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Zephyr StyleADVISOR, SSgA Global ETF Strategy & Research, January 2001 to November
2010. |
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Precise in a world that isntSM.
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DEFINITIONS:
CORRELATION
A statistical measure of how two securities move in relation to each other. Correlation is
computed into what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. Perfect
positive correlation (a correlation co-efficient of +1) implies that as one security moves, either
up or down, the other security will move in lockstep, in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect
negative correlation means that if one security moves in either direction the security that is
perfectly negatively correlated will move by an equal amount in the opposite direction. If the
correlation is 0, the movements of the securities are said to have no correlation; they are
completely random.
DIVERSIFICATION
A risk-management technique that mixes a wide variety of investments within a portfolio. The
rationale contends that a portfolio of different kinds of investments will, on average, yield
higher returns and pose a lower risk than any individual investment found within the portfolio. It
strives to smooth out events in a portfolio so that the positive performance of some investments
will neutralize the negative performance of others.
INDEX DEFINITIONS:
GOLD LONDON PM FIXING (SPOT PRICE)
The London fix is a method of determining the price of gold. It is carried out twice a day
(10:30AM and 3:00PM, London time) by the 5 members via a dedicated conference call facility.
BARCLAYS CAPITAL U.S. AGGREGATE INDEX
The Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Index represents the securities of the US
dollar-denominated, investment grade bond market. The Index provides a measure of the performance
of the US dollar-denominated, investment grade, bond market, which includes investment grade (must
be Baa3/BBB- or higher using the middle rating of Moodys Investor Service, Inc., Standard &
Poors, and Fitch Rating) government bonds, investment grade corporate bonds, mortgage pass through
securities, commercial mortgage backed securities and asset backed securities that are publicly
offered for sale in the United States.
DOW JONES U.S. SELECT REIT INDEX
The Dow Jones U.S. Select REIT Index is comprised of companies whose charters are the equity
ownership and operation of commercial real estate and which operate under the REIT Act of 1960. The
Index is generally rebalanced monthly, and returns are calculated on a buy and hold basis except as
necessary to reflect the occasional occurrence of Index changes in the middle of the month. Each
REIT in the Index is weighted by its float-adjusted market capitalization. That is, each security
is weighted to reflect the attainable market performance of the security which reflects that
portion of securities shares that are accessible to investors.
S&P 500 INDEX
The S&P 500 Index is composed of 500 selected stocks, all of which are listed on the
Exchange, the NYSE or NASDAQ, and spans over 24 separate industry groups. Since 1968, the S&P 500
Index has been a component of the US Commerce Departments list of Leading Indicators that track
key sectors of the US economy. Current information regarding the market value of the S&P 500 Index
is available from market information services. The S&P 500 Index is determined, comprised and
calculated without regard to the Trust.
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ABOUT SPDR® ETFS
SPDR ETFs are a comprehensive fund family of over 90 ETFs, spanning an array of international
and domestic asset classes. Offered by State Street Global Advisors, SPDR ETFs provide investors
with the flexibility to select investments that are precisely aligned to their investment strategy.
Recognized as the industry pioneer, State Street created the first ETF in 1993 (SPDR S&P
500® Ticker SPY). Since then, weve sustained our place as an industry innovator
through the introduction of many ground-breaking products, including first-to-market launches with
gold, international real estate, international fixed income and sector ETFs.
For information about our ETF family, visit www.spdrs.com
STATE STREET GLOBAL MARKETS, LLC
State Street Financial Center
One Lincoln Street
Boston, MA 02111
866.320.4053
spdrgoldshares.com
FOR PUBLIC USE.
IMPORTANT RISK INFORMATION
As with all investments, investing in gold entails risk. There can be no assurance that gold will
maintain its long-term value in terms of purchasing power in the future or that gold will continue
to exhibit low to negative correlation with other asset classes. You could lose money my investing
in gold.
ETFs trade like stocks, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETFs
net asset value. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns.
Neither diversification nor asset allocation ensure profit or guarantee against loss.
Frequent trading of ETFs could significantly increase commissions and other costs such that they
may offset any savings from low fees or costs.
Commodities and commodity-index linked securities may be affected by changes in overall market
movements, changes in interest rates, and other factors such as weather, disease, embargoes, or
political and regulatory developments, as well as trading activity of speculators and arbitrageurs
in the underlying commodities.
The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) has filed a registration statement (including a prospectus) with the
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for the offering to which this communication relates.
Before you invest, you should read the prospectus in that registration statement and other
documents GLD has filed with the SEC for more complete information about GLD and this offering. You
may get these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at www.sec.gov or by visiting
www.spdrgoldshares.com. Alternatively, the Trust or any authorized participant will arrange to send
you the prospectus if you request it by calling 1-866-320-4053.
GLD shares trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk and will fluctuate in market value.
The value of GLD shares relates directly to the value of the gold held by GLD (less its expenses),
and fluctuations in the price of gold could materially and adversely affect an investment in the
shares. The price received upon the sale of the shares, which trade at market price, may be more or
less than the value of the gold represented by them. There can be no assurance that the active
trading market for GLD shares will be maintained. GLD does not generate any income, and as GLD
regularly sells gold to pay for its ongoing expenses, the amount of gold represented by each Share
will decline over time. Investing involves risk, and you could lose money on an investment in GLD.
Please see the GLD prospectus for a detailed discussion of the risks of investing in GLD shares.
SPDR is a registered trademark of Standard & Poors Financial Services LLC (S&P) and has been
licensed for use by State Street Corporation. No financial product offered by State Street
Corporation or its affiliates is sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by S&P or its affiliates,
and S&P and its affiliates make no representation, warranty or condition regarding the advisability
of buying, selling or holding units/shares in such products. Further limitations that could affect
investors rights may be found in GLDs prospectus.
The Trust is sponsored by World Gold Trust Services, LLC (the Sponsor), a wholly-owned subsidiary
of the World Gold Council. State Street Global Markets, LLC (the Marketing Agent) is the
marketing agent of the Trust and an affiliate of State Street Global Advisors.
For more information: State Street Global Markets, LLC, One Lincoln Street, Boston, MA, 0211 866.320.4053 www.spdrgoldshares.com.
Not FDIC Insured No Bank Guarantee May Lose Value
© 2011 State Street Corporation. All Rights Reserved. IBG-3051 Exp. Date: 12/31/2011 IBG.GLDYE.0111
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Precise in a world that isntSM.
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SPDR® GOLD TRUST has filed a registration statement (including a prospectus)
with the SEC for the offering to which this communication relates. Before you invest, you should
read the prospectus in that registration statement and other documents the issuer has filed with
the SEC for more complete information about the Trust and this offering. You may get these
documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC Web site at www.sec.gov. Alternatively, the Trust
or any Authorized Participant will arrange to send you the prospectus if you request it by calling
toll free at 1-866-320-4053 or contacting State Street Global Markets, LLC, One Lincoln Street,
Attn: SPDR® Gold Shares, 30th Floor, Boston, MA 02111.