- The COVID-19 pandemic continues to impact pharmaceutical markets globally, and is estimated to expand the net cumulative pharmaceutical market by $500 billion from 2020 through 2027
- Highest volume growth is expected in Latin America, Asia and Africa, driven by a mix of population growth and expanded access. North America and Europe will see very low growth
- Demand for innovative drugs will drive oncology spending to approximately $370 billion by 2027, almost double the current level
- Biotech medicines will represent 35% of spending globally in 2027 and will include both breakthrough cell and gene therapies, as well as a maturing biosimilar segment
The total spending and global demand for medicines will increase over the next five years to approximately $1.9 trillion by 2027, according to a new report titled Global Use of Medicines 2023 – Outlook through 2027 from the IQVIA Institute for Human Data Science.
The underlying growth rate of 3-6% in spend will be driven by new drug launches and wider use of recently launched brands despite efforts by payers to constrain their budgets, and the impact of lower cost options.
“COVID-19 continues to have an impact on pharmaceutical markets globally, and is estimated to continue expanding the pharmaceutical market through 2027, largely due to vaccines,” said Murray Aitken, senior vice president and executive director of the IQVIA Institute for Human Data Science. “However, there are significant uncertainties in the years ahead with the transition of the global COVID-19 pandemic to a new phase where vaccines and therapeutics are available but are used inconsistently.”
Key highlights of the report include:
- Increased use of medicine: Medicine use – measured in defined daily doses - grew by 36% over the past decade, driven by increased access to medicines. However, growth is projected to slow through 2027 and reach a total of more than 3.4 trillion doses, up about 8% from the 2022 level. Highest volume growth is expected in Latin America, Asia and Africa, driven by a mix of population growth and expanded access, while North America and Europe will see very low growth. Per capita medicine varies by region with Japan and Western Europe having more than double the use of most other regions.
- Spending and growth by regions: The global medicine market — using invoice price levels — is expected to grow at 3–6% CAGR through 2027 to about $1.9 trillion with diverging trends by region. Growth in developed economies continues at relatively steady rates with new products offset by patent expiries; Latin America, Eastern Europe and parts of Asia are expected to grow strongly from volume and greater adoption of novel medicines. The U.S. market growth, on a net price basis, is forecast to adjust -1 to 2% CAGR through 2027, down from 4% CAGR for the past five years. The impact of exclusivity losses will increase to $140.7 billion over five years, including significant biosimilar introductions in 2023 and 2024. New brand spending in the U.S. is projected to be higher than the last five years but will be a smaller share of total spending. Key elements of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) are expected to impact medicine pricing and cost sharing among stakeholders, even though the specific impact is yet to be determined as no baseline has been established and the detailed plans for implementation IRA for medicine pricing and cost sharing have not been provided.
- Impact of COVID-19 on the use of medicines: COVID-19 continues to have an impact on pharmaceutical markets globally and is estimated to expand the net cumulative pharmaceutical market by $500 billion from 2020 through 2027, mostly linked to vaccines. Disruptions in demand for many other medicines, due to delayed diagnoses, continue to play out although global market growth is forecast to return to pre-pandemic projected levels by 2024. All regions around the world have exceeded previously projected first-wave vaccination rates while booster utilization is lagging. This creates substantial uncertainty about the future of the pandemic and the potential risks of reemergence of infections, especially in regions of the world with the lowest immunization and booster rates.
- Growth in spending on specialty medicines: Specialty medicines will represent about 43% of global spending in 2027 and 56% of total spending in developed markets. Global spending on cancer drugs is expected to reach $370 billion by 2027, with growth accelerating from the launch and use of novel drugs and limited new biosimilar impact. Immunology spending growth will slow to 3-6% through 2027 from price reductions associated with biosimilar competition as volume growth continues at 12% annually. New therapies for rare neurological disorders, Alzheimer’s and migraines are expected to drive spending growth in neurology.
- Biotech spending: Biotech will represent 35% of spending globally and will include both breakthrough cell and gene therapies, as well as a maturing biosimilar segment. Major advances are expected to continue, especially in oncology and immunology. The outlook for next-generation biotherapeutics includes a definitively uncertain range of clinical and commercial successes.
About the IQVIA Institute for Human Data Science
The IQVIA Institute for Human Data Science contributes to the advancement of human health globally through timely research, insightful analysis and scientific expertise applied to granular non-identified patient-level data.
Fulfilling an essential need within healthcare, the Institute delivers objective, relevant insights and research that accelerate understanding and innovation critical to sound decision making and improved human outcomes. With access to IQVIA’s institutional knowledge, advanced analytics, technology and unparalleled data, the Institute works in tandem with a broad set of healthcare stakeholders to drive a research agenda focused on Human Data Science, including government agencies, academic institutions, the life sciences industry, and payers. More information about the IQVIA Institute can be found at www.IQVIAInstitute.org.
IQVIA (NYSE:IQV) is a leading global provider of advanced analytics, technology solutions, and clinical research services to the life sciences industry. IQVIA creates intelligent connections across all aspects of healthcare through its analytics, transformative technology, big data resources and extensive domain expertise. IQVIA Connected Intelligence™ delivers powerful insights with speed and agility — enabling customers to accelerate the clinical development and commercialization of innovative medical treatments that improve healthcare outcomes for patients. With approximately 85,000 employees, IQVIA conducts operations in more than 100 countries.
IQVIA is a global leader in protecting individual patient privacy. The company uses a wide variety of privacy-enhancing technologies and safeguards to protect individual privacy while generating and analyzing information on a scale that helps healthcare stakeholders identify disease patterns and correlate with the precise treatment path and therapy needed for better outcomes. IQVIA’s insights and execution capabilities help biotech, medical device and pharmaceutical companies, medical researchers, government agencies, payers and other healthcare stakeholders tap into a deeper understanding of diseases, human behaviors, and scientific advances, in an effort to advance their path toward cures. To learn more, visit www.iqvia.com.
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Nick Childs, IQVIA Investor Relations (Nchilds@us.imshealth.com)
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