Friday - Is the Dollar Going UUP?

Is it time to buy the buck?  As noted by Andrew Wilkinson on Wednesday , there was a huge volume surge in UUP call options, the ETF that tracks the US Dollars index value, ahead of the FOMC statement.  155,000 November call options were bought at the $23 strike level and another 155,000 were purchased at the December $23 strikes.  The November calls came in at around .15 and are now .25 (up 66% in one day on UUP) and the December calls were executed around .25 and are now .40 (UUP up 60%) - this is not bad for a day’s work but was it just a day’s work or are we betting on a trend? As you can see from David Fry’s chart , it’s not just the 300,000+ options (controlling 30M shares) that have been trading bullishly around the dollar - there has been a stunning surge of volume buying that has built up since mid-October as the dollar index skates along our own target low of 75 . So strong was the demand for shares of UUP that we noted in Member Chat that the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) was halted pending clearance of their request to register another 100M shares " in order to meet investment demand ."  “ There’s been a lot more interest in this ETF because investors are using it as a hedge on the dollar ,” said David Stec , an ETF options trader at Group One Trading on the Chicago Board Options Exchange floor. “ Yesterday, with the amount of options volume they saw, they probably have to add some shares. The ETF is based on the dollar versus a basket of currencies, so if there aren’t enough shares it might trade at a premium .” The Dollar trading at a premium?  Surely you can’t be serious!  Well,  I am serious and don’t call me Shirley …  While this may be contrary to what you’ve been hearing in the MSM, where dollar bashing has become a popular blood sport, it’s the main reason we’ve been having trouble buying into this commodity-led rally, which has been primarily based on the 15% pounding the Dollar has taken since March.  As I often point out to members, if you adjust the S&P to reflect a real currency, like the Euro or the Yen, then you’ll find that our " spectacular " 60% rally in the S&P since March is really just a 27% rally and looks like this to a foriegn investor (S&P value…