The Oil Price Blame Game & Speculators

Oil prices are on the rise again. The price of U.S. crude was up $1.42, or 1.4%, to $106.12 in midday trading. Was it only yesterday that threats to global growth explained, in part, a decline in prices? Among oil-tethered equities, ConocoPhillips (COP) and Chevron (CVX) were up 1%, slightly more than other big integrated [...]

Oil prices are on the rise again.

The price of U.S. crude was up $1.42, or 1.4%, to $106.12 in midday trading.  Was it only yesterday that threats to global growth explained, in part, a decline in prices?

Among oil-tethered equities, ConocoPhillips (COP) and Chevron (CVX) were up 1%, slightly more than other big integrated oil companies. Shares of Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), one of the larger oil sands players north of the border, were down 0.62%. Stock of Suncor Energy (SU) was up nearly 2% and Marathon Oil (MRO) rose 1.3%.

Shares of natural gas players Apache (APA) and Chesapeake Energy (CHK) each rose about 2.5%.

With Mitt Romney at the top of the Republican presidential nominee heap, and gasoline prices hovering near $3.76 per gallon, expect an escalating war of energy words lambasting the Obama administration, says energy policy analyst Kevin Book, of D.C.-based ClearView Energy Partners.

While OPEC ought to be in the crosshairs too, considering that 80% of global reserves are in the hands of national oil companies, U.S. politicians are going to get a good amount of blame in this game. Book points to nine bills floating around in the House and Senate that seek to control how the strategic petroleum reserve can be used.

Book also expects more blame hurled on commodity speculators, “now that the financial crisis has given many voters a reason to blame Wall Street.” But he concludes:

“Recent experience – especially the 3Q2008 crude price plunge – suggests to us that speculators can contribute to price volatility and may even provide short-term inflationary impacts, but we have seen little evidence that financial premiums can be sustained when lower-priced physical deliveries undercut them … Nonetheless, we urge clients not to dismiss prospects for new administrative or legislative efforts directed at limiting oil speculation this year.”

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