Philip Morris International Inc.’s (NYSE:PM) Chief Financial Officer, Emmanuel Babeau, addresses investors today at the Morgan Stanley Virtual Global Consumer & Retail Conference.
The presentation and Q&A session will be conducted in a virtual format, beginning at approximately 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time. A live video webcast of the entire PMI session will be available, in a listen-only mode, at www.pmi.com/2020morganstanley. Presentation slides will be available on the same site.
An archived copy of the webcast will be available at www.pmi.com/2020morganstanley until Thursday, December 31, 2020. The archived webcast can also be accessed on iOS or Android devices by downloading PMI’s free Investor Relations Mobile Application at www.pmi.com/irapp.
2020 FULL-YEAR FORECAST
PMI revises its full-year 2020 reported diluted EPS forecast to be around $5.08, at prevailing exchange rates, compared to the previously communicated forecast range of $5.03 to $5.08, provided on October 20, 2020. The revision primarily reflects lower anticipated costs, driven by: further efficiencies related to the commercial engine and digitalization, ongoing business simplification, and adjustments to commercial plans due to the pandemic.
Excluding an unfavorable currency impact, at prevailing exchange rates, of approximately $0.32 per share, a favorable tax item of $0.06 per share, asset impairment and exit costs of $0.04 per share and a fair value adjustment for equity security investments of $0.04 per share, this forecast represents a projected increase of around 6% versus pro forma adjusted diluted EPS of $5.13 in 2019, as detailed in the below table.
2020 Full-Year Forecast
Reported Diluted EPS
Asset impairment and exit costs
Canadian tobacco litigation-related expense
Loss on deconsolidation of RBH
Russia excise and VAT audit charge
Fair value adj. for equity security investments
Adjusted Diluted EPS
Net earnings attributable to RBH
Adjusted Diluted EPS
Adjusted Diluted EPS, excluding currency
(a) Net reported diluted EPS attributable to RBH from January 1, 2019 through March 21, 2019.
(b) Pro forma.
2020 Full-Year Forecast Assumptions
The assumptions underlying this forecast remain unchanged versus those communicated by PMI in its earnings release of October 20, 2020, with the exception of the following additions:
- Full-year HTU shipment volume of 75 to 76 billion units, broadly in-line with anticipated HTU in-market sales volume; and
- Strong sequential HTU market share gains in key IQOS geographies in the fourth quarter.
This forecast excludes the impact of any future acquisitions, unanticipated or unquantifiable asset impairment and exit cost charges, future changes in currency exchange rates, further developments related to the U.S. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, further developments pertaining to the judgment in the two Québec Class Action lawsuits and the Companies’ Creditors Arrangement Act (CCAA) protection granted to RBH, any unusual events, and any COVID-19-related developments different from the assumptions set forth in the company's forecast.
Factors described in the Forward-Looking and Cautionary Statements section of this release represent continuing risks to these projections.
Forward-Looking and Cautionary Statements
This press release, the presentation and related discussion contain projections of future results and other forward-looking statements. Achievement of future results is subject to risks, uncertainties and inaccurate assumptions. In the event that risks or uncertainties materialize, or underlying assumptions prove inaccurate, actual results could vary materially from those contained in such forward-looking statements. Pursuant to the “safe harbor” provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, PMI is identifying important factors that, individually or in the aggregate, could cause actual results and outcomes to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statements made by PMI.
PMI's business risks include: excise tax increases and discriminatory tax structures; increasing marketing and regulatory restrictions that could reduce our competitiveness, eliminate our ability to communicate with adult consumers, or ban certain of our products; health concerns relating to the use of tobacco and other nicotine-containing products and exposure to environmental tobacco smoke; litigation related to tobacco use and intellectual property; intense competition; the effects of global and individual country economic, regulatory and political developments, natural disasters and conflicts; changes in adult smoker behavior; lost revenues as a result of counterfeiting, contraband and cross-border purchases; governmental investigations; unfavorable currency exchange rates and currency devaluations, and limitations on the ability to repatriate funds; adverse changes in applicable corporate tax laws; adverse changes in the cost and quality of tobacco and other agricultural products and raw materials; and the integrity of its information systems and effectiveness of its data privacy policies. PMI's future profitability may also be adversely affected should it be unsuccessful in its attempts to produce and commercialize reduced-risk products or if regulation or taxation do not differentiate between such products and cigarettes; if it is unable to successfully introduce new products, promote brand equity, enter new markets or improve its margins through increased prices and productivity gains; if it is unable to expand its brand portfolio internally or through acquisitions and the development of strategic business relationships; or if it is unable to attract and retain the best global talent. Future results are also subject to the lower predictability of our reduced-risk product category's performance.
The COVID-19 pandemic has created significant societal and economic disruption, and resulted in closures of stores, factories and offices, and restrictions on manufacturing, distribution and travel, all of which will adversely impact our business, results of operations, cash flows and financial position during the continuation of the pandemic. Our business continuity plans and other safeguards in place may not be effective to mitigate the impact of the pandemic. Currently, significant risks include our diminished ability to convert adult smokers to our RRPs, significant volume declines in our duty-free business and certain other key markets, disruptions or delays in our manufacturing and supply chain, increased currency volatility, and delays in certain cost saving, transformation and restructuring initiatives. Our business could also be adversely impacted if key personnel or a significant number of employees or business partners become unavailable due to the COVID-19 outbreak. The significant adverse impact of COVID-19 on the economic or political conditions in markets in which we operate could result in changes to the preferences of our adult consumers and lower demand for our products, particularly for our mid-price or premium-price brands. Continuation of the pandemic could disrupt our access to the credit markets or increase our borrowing costs. Governments may temporarily be unable to focus on the development of science-based regulatory frameworks for the development and commercialization of RRPs or on the enforcement or implementation of regulations that are significant to our business. In addition, messaging about the potential negative impacts of the use of our products on COVID-19 risks may lead to increasingly restrictive regulatory measures on the sale and use of our products, negatively impact demand for our products, the willingness of adult consumers to switch to our RRPs and our efforts to advocate for the development of science-based regulatory frameworks for the development and commercialization of RRPs.
The impact of these risks also depends on factors beyond our knowledge or control, including the duration and severity of the outbreak, its recurrence in our key markets, actions taken to contain its spread and to mitigate its public health effects, and the ultimate economic consequences thereof.
PMI is further subject to other risks detailed from time to time in its publicly filed documents, including the Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2020. PMI cautions that the foregoing list of important factors is not a complete discussion of all potential risks and uncertainties. PMI does not undertake to update any forward-looking statement that it may make from time to time, except in the normal course of its public disclosure obligations.
Philip Morris International: Delivering a Smoke-Free Future
Philip Morris International (PMI) is leading a transformation in the tobacco industry to create a smoke-free future and ultimately replace cigarettes with smoke-free products to the benefit of adults who would otherwise continue to smoke, society, the company and its shareholders. PMI is a leading international tobacco company engaged in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes, as well as smoke-free products and associated electronic devices and accessories, and other nicotine-containing products in markets outside the U.S. In addition, PMI ships a version of its IQOS Platform 1 device and its consumables to Altria Group, Inc. for sale under license in the U.S., where the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has authorized their marketing as a modified risk tobacco product (MRTP), finding that an exposure modification order for these products is appropriate to promote the public health. PMI is building a future on a new category of smoke-free products that, while not risk-free, are a much better choice than continuing to smoke. Through multidisciplinary capabilities in product development, state-of-the-art facilities and scientific substantiation, PMI aims to ensure that its smoke-free products meet adult consumer preferences and rigorous regulatory requirements. PMI's smoke-free product portfolio includes heat-not-burn and nicotine-containing vapor products. As of September 30, 2020, PMI estimates that approximately 11.7 million adult smokers around the world have already stopped smoking and switched to PMI's heat-not-burn product, available for sale in 61 markets in key cities or nationwide under the IQOS brand. For more information, please visit www.pmi.com and www.pmiscience.com.
New York: +1 (917) 663 2233
Lausanne: +41 (0)58 242 4666