I miss all the oil jokes from April 2020 (when oil went negative):
There are so many lessons in this current commodity surge.
I guess the first one is ‘when oil goes negative, buy some.’ I went back and checked what I did the day oil went negative and thank god I DID buy Exxon.
I wrote ‘Oil…We Got A Bleeder‘
I know LESS than nothing about oil and coal and commodities so I was happy to flip Exxon for a 30-40 percent gain in the following months and stopped following it.
Big. Mistake.
So here we are in March 2022 and I will share some charts of coal, wheat and energy stocks and indexes combined with the chart of Russia’s stock market ETF (note – if you have a Koyfin account you can play with the chart in this link):
The first one is since April 2020:
The second one is the same stocks and ETF’s for the last 20 years:
A few things stood out to me
1. Russia always sucks as a place to put money.
2. The commodity Spikes can be epic.
At the end of my post in April 2020 I wrote:
I have no idea where the next implosion is coming but there will be many more from this recession.
The Federal Government money printing machine is in full turbo and so I will not bet against them winning. The side effects are the hard part to game.
So here we are in March 2022 and while the massive money printing held off a recession in 2020, a recession is coming in 2022. I write this because there has never been a time when oil rose 50 percent and we did not get a recession.
Anyhooooo…
I have been listening to podcasts on the subject of industrials, oils and commodities from this Coloussus page of links and you can too.
I am off to New York.
Have a great week.
