e425
Filed by Inco Limited
Pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act of 1933
Subject Company: Falconbridge Limited
Commission File No. 1-11284
Inco Limited Commission File No. 1-1143
Presentation by Scott M. Hand
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Inco Limited
J.P. Morgans Basics and Industrials Conference
June 5, 2006
Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Thanks to Mike Gambardella and J.P. Morgan for the invitation to
speak today at your basics and industrials conference.
I want to draw your attention to the information on the screen, including the caution regarding
forward-looking information and related statements. Unless otherwise stated, forward looking
information in my remarks today excludes the impact of Incos offer for Falconbridge. Also:
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Actual results could differ materially from the 2006 outlook and other forward looking
statements; |
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Certain material assumptions were made in the forward-looking statements. These
assumptions are set forth in more detail in our Directors circular; |
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We have filed the slides used in this presentation with the SEC in the United States and
on SEDAR in Canada; |
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Inco filed its Directors circular in response to the Teck Offer on May 31. All
shareholders of Inco have already received or will receive in the coming days a copy of the
Directors circular. Shareholders are encouraged to read this document thoroughly and
completely, as it contains important additional information on the material factors, risks
and assumptions that could cause results to differ from those envisioned in my remarks. The
Directors circular is available on SEDAR (www.sedar.com) in Canada, on the SEC
website (www.sec.gov) in the United States, and on our website at www.inco.com; |
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And finally, all currency references are in U.S. Dollars unless otherwise stated. |
Today Ill explain where my Board and I stand on the many issues and opportunities that face us.
Evaluating alternatives for Incos future is nothing new for our management and Board; it is a
process that we rigorously and regularly employ. We are very clear in our strategy for meeting our
prime objective delivering value to our shareholders, both in the near and longer term. We
believe the friendly acquisition of Falconbridge meets this goal and serves the best interests
of both companies workforces.
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On May 8, Teck Cominco issued a news release announcing its intention to make an unsolicited
takeover offer for Inco. On May 23, a formal offer was made. Incos Board of Directors has
unanimously recommended that all shareholders reject the Teck Offer and not tender their shares.
The world has changed since Inco bid for Falconbridge in October but the right move for us has
not. We believe that this transaction is still the best value creating option for our shareholders
and perhaps the best value creating transaction in our industry. It produces a great company,
with great operations, great assets, and great growth prospects.
We have evaluated Teck as a partner in the past, and there have been a number of overtures from
Teck since mid-2005. Each time, after careful analysis, we determined that the value creation
opportunities from such a combination did not compare to those achieved by acquiring Falconbridge.
Given Tecks unsolicited offer for Inco, we want to publicly respond and explain why we recommend
that our shareholders reject the Teck offer.
Our Directors circular contains a discussion of our reasons, which reflect four key themes.
As seen in points one through three and five on our slide, the Teck offer does not give our
shareholders adequate value for their company. Since most of the consideration in Tecks offer is
Teck stock, it is important to compare the asset quality and growth prospects of our companies
and Incos assets and prospects are far superior. Quite simply, our Board believes that the premium
offered by Teck is too low to acquire a great Company like Inco and particularly low at a time
when Tecks stock has been inflated and Incos stock depressed by a number of factors related to
our Falconbridge bid, which Ill address later.
Point four on our slide indicates that the real value lies in the Falconbridge acquisition. Tecks
offer depends on the Falconbridge transaction not proceeding so Incos investors would not
receive the tremendous value we can create by joining with Falconbridge.
As to points six and eight on the slide, Teck is only offering Inco shareholders its Class B
subordinated voting shares. This would disenfranchise Incos shareholders who now have one vote
for each share. They would not have a meaningful say in the new company.
Point seven, combining with Teck lacks industrial logic and offers few synergies. We believe that
the synergies stated publicly by Teck are largely illusory, as Ill explain later.
In the opinion of Incos Board, the Teck offer represents an inadequate control premium to Incos
share price. Finally, we have opinions from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and RBC Capital Markets,
stating that Tecks offer is inadequate from a financial point of view.
I will not tender my shares and none of our Directors or Officers plan to tender into the Teck
offer.
Under Tecks unsolicited offer, assuming full proration, shareholders would receive C$28.00 in cash
and 0.6293 of a Teck Class B subordinated voting share. Teck likes to emphasize that it is offering
shareholders C$78.50 in cash; however, it is very unlikely that Incos shareholders will actually
receive this. On a fully prorated basis, the Teck offer is now worth
about C$71.30, a mere 9%
premium to our stock price the day before the Teck
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announcement was made. Not only is this a low premium for control, it is particularly low
considering that since Inco made the offer for Falconbridge, our stock price has been depressed due
to short selling and other factors. Also, the offer is contingent on shareholders foregoing the
great value creation available by joining with Falconbridge.
The Teck offer fails to recognize the strategic and scarcity value of Incos world class assets and
growth projects. Our shareholders would not be paid for the value of their Company, considering our
leadership position in nickel, the outstanding growth prospects offered by our development
projects, and our excellent cost position, with costs per nickel unit net of by-product credits
expected to decline a scenario unique in our industry.
Inco has large-scale, long-life, low-cost operations in the worlds top nickel belts. Reserve life
at our major operations runs from 15 to 30 years and, as we convert mineral resources into ore
reserves, mine lives should get much longer. In this age of commodity scarcity, the market is just
starting to grasp the unique value of our mining assets.
The next slide highlights Incos strong position in the nickel industry. However, what truly
distinguishes Inco is the growth that we offer investors over the next few years. Growth in the
mining industry is hard to come by, particularly for large global companies that must discover and
develop massive deposits to move the needle. With our Voiseys Bay project ramping up production,
Goro under construction, and our ability to expand at our existing operations in Canada and
Indonesia, we are delivering on our strategy to bring on new low-cost capacity and to strengthen
our operating position. As result of this production growth, we expect to soon become the worlds
largest nickel producer.
Our project pipeline is rich and robust, with greenfield developments such as Voiseys Bay and
Goro, plus very low risk brownfield expansions at existing operations, like PT Inco. Few companies
offer such growth. Meanwhile, Teck has announced no new significant metal mining projects and
some existing Teck mines are near the end of their lives.
Inco is a low cost producer. In 2005, we were at the low end of the Brook Hunt cost curve. In 2006,
with more productivity improvements and Voiseys Bay ramping up, our cost position should get even
better. Inco is the only major public mining company whose costs will decline this year in absolute
terms despite $75 per barrel oil and a $0.90 Canadian dollar. And Goro and our expansion at PT
Inco will lower our costs even further. For example, in the second half of 2006, with the Voiseys
Bay pipeline full, our overall nickel unit cash cost of sales, after by-product credits, should be
$2.20-to-$2.25 a pound.
We have great financial strength, with a 26% debt-to-capitalization ratio and over $750 million
cash in the bank.
And finally, we have our exposure to the nickel market, which we believe has much more attractive
fundamentals than certain other commodities. The nickel market has gathered a lot of steam and
at a pace that surprised many people. But despite what you may hear, its strength is not about the
funds its about the fundamentals. Demand is strong in virtually every area. Nickel companies
are producing all they can. Yet supply will chase demand for some time. LME inventories continue to
drop and nickel has been over $10 a pound for more than a week. There were a lot of non-believers
in nickel late last year but
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Inco was not among them. Well, nickel has come roaring back as we said it would and despite the
recent metals correction nickel is as strong as ever.
Four key drivers signal a bright future for nickel this year: strong rebounding global stainless
steel output; a tighter stainless steel scrap market; exceptional strength in non-stainless nickel
demand; and limited nickel supply growth.
Improving economies worldwide and industrial production growth estimates of over 6% support our
2006 stainless production growth forecast of more than 8%. Stainless steel consumption is
rebounding globally. Inventories are down. New facilities continue to ramp up and they need
nickel.
This year China will become the worlds biggest stainless steel producer building three million
tonnes of new capacity. Chinese nickel consumption should climb by about 30%, or over 60,000
tonnes, taking up the nickel supply growth. Chinese industrial production growth continues at a
rate above 16%. The average nickel grade of stainless will rise, as substitution with lower nickel
content stainless 200 series has become less of an issue.
Nickel-containing stainless steel is now as competitively priced as it has ever been. Stainless
steel prices in the past quarter were less than half those for copper and lower than aluminum
prices. When nickel prices first crossed the $17,000 per tonne threshold, in January 2004, they
were six times higher than copper and nine times more than aluminum prices. The second time this
nickel price level was breached in May 2005 nickel prices were five times copper prices and
almost 10 times aluminum prices. Today nickel is less than three times copper and less than seven
times aluminum. Nickel is cheap!
The second key driver for 2006 is tightness in nickel containing stainless steel scrap. This year
were assuming scrap supply growth of 5% at most. With over 8% stainless production growth, lower
200 series demand and an increasing austenitic ratio, scrap markets will be tight and primary
nickel demand for stainless steel will rise.
The third factor affecting 2006 is nickel demand in the non-stainless market, likely up 6-to-8%,
given ongoing strength in the aerospace build rate and robust increases in other uses. For example,
we see rapid growth in hybrid electric vehicles and consumer nickel metal hydride cells.
The fourth market driver this year is supply. Overall output growth will be about 3-to-4%, or
roughly 50,000 tonnes. With most producers at or above capacity and historic maximums, there is a
very high risk of disruptions, which cant be offset by later production. And inventories on the
LME are at very low levels down over 50% from their February peak.
In 2006 the stainless steel rebound and limited nickel expansions will mean a supply/demand
deficit. Losses from disruptions could constrict the market even further. Elevated nickel prices
should act to keep demand in line with supply.
We expect the nickel market to be tight for several years. While new greenfield nickel supply will
come and several brownfield expansions will occur, world supply will only be enough to keep pace
with demand growth of about 5% and the impact of China makes
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this projection seem very conservative. In the last period of strong global industrial production
growth driven by Japan from 1960 to 1974 world nickel demand growth averaged over 7% per
year. As a result, and while we do not publicly forecast nickel prices, we believe that nickels
prospects are underpinned by strong supply/demand fundamentals.
So in the context of metals prospects, lets turn again to Teck. Inco has concluded that combining
with Teck would dilute our asset quality. Almost half of Tecks profits in 2005 came from copper, a
metal with a great future. But two-thirds of Tecks copper production comes from the Highland
Valley mine, which is scheduled to close in just seven years. Tecks other copper asset, its 22.5%
minority ownership in Antamina, is a good one. But we are buying into a larger 33.75% stake in that
asset through Falconbridge.
Look at Tecks zinc business. Its largest zinc asset is Red Dog. Thats a good mine but Tecks
economic interest will diminish as early as 2007 and eventually decline to 50%. Two of its other
zinc assets have only 3-to-6 years of mine life left. We are skeptical about the prospects for
zinc. Demand growth has come from China but Chinese mines already produce 25% of the worlds
zinc and have been able to raise output 22% since 2000.
Turning to coal, Tecks Elk Valley is a relatively high cost producer, 1,000 kilometers inland and
quite far from its Asian markets. Thus it is not surprising that these assets generated only modest
operating profit before the boom year of 2005. China is a substantial producer of metallurgical
coal and has been able to almost double production since 2000.
In short, Tecks assets are inferior to Incos in terms of reserve life, growth prospects and cost
position.
The market is currently in love with copper and zinc. If you look at spot prices as a multiple of
historical averages, you can see how inflated zinc and copper prices are, relative to their
long-term averages. I believe that the fundamentals for nickel are the best of the three metals.
The slide on the screen demonstrates that even though nickel is a record $10 a pound, its best days
are yet to come. This bodes well for Inco, badly for Teck and supports my view that combining
Incos and Tecks assets dilutes the Inco shareholder.
The Teck offer represents an inadequate control premium to the share price of Inco, particularly
given the opportunistic timing. Average premiums paid in hostile Canadian metal and mining
transactions approach 60%, and recently nickel companies such as WMC and Canico were sold at 46%
and 56% percent premiums, respectively. Tecks offer was a 20% premium to our undisturbed price at
the time of the announcement and this has declined to a 9% premium to our undisturbed price on May
5. Our Board believes that shareholders deserve a better premium for control of a Company with
Incos outstanding assets and prospects, if that is the way we go. Our Board cannot recommend that
shareholders sell at a mere 9% premium to the undisturbed price a day before the offer.
Remember Tecks offer is conditional on the Falconbridge deal not proceeding. So Teck would be
funding a large part of this small premium from the $450 termination fee that would be due to Inco
under certain circumstances.
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The rise of the zinc and copper price, relative to the nickel price, has affected the relative
value of our two stocks. This is clear when you look at the exchange ratio, calculated as the Inco
stock price divided by the Teck stock price. As zinc and copper prices have risen, the exchange
ratio has moved in favor of Tecks investors. Teck has timed its offer to use this at the expense
of the Inco shareholder, who would be selling to Teck at a discount to virtually any time in the
past five years. Therefore, Tecks offer is highly opportunistic.
Since Teck is only offering Class B subordinated voting shares, its dual class share structure will
prejudice and disenfranchise Inco shareholders, who would have a 40% interest in the combined
entity but only 17% of the votes. A privileged few shareholders, with less than a 2% shareholding
in a Teck/Inco combination, would control 57% of the votes.
Tecks assertions on synergies leave us scratching our heads. There are no meaningful synergies
beyond head office, and Tecks claims on Sudbury synergies and CESL are highly speculative. When
contrasting this to the tangible, identified synergies and value creation available to Inco
shareholders through Falconbridge, Tecks assertions have little or no substance. We believe our
shareholders will see this for what it is.
Ill sum up by saying that we look at Teck versus Inco on five key criteria: asset quality and
market position; fundamentals of underlying metals; growth profile; corporate governance; and
synergies. Inco is a low-cost producer with a high-quality, long-life asset base in arguably the
best metal: nickel. We have a compelling growth profile, probably one of the best in the industry.
Teck Cominco is opportunistically attempting to upgrade its asset quality without adequately
compensating Incos shareholders.
Incos Board has assessed and will continue to evaluate all strategic alternatives that would serve
our shareholders best interests; both short and long-term. Commodity markets have strengthened
since October and so has the logic for the Falconbridge transaction. The best strategy for our
shareholders is to acquire Falconbridge and we continue to work aggressively to do so.
Our deal was structured to provide both immediate and longer-term benefits to shareholders. Great
operations, diversified in terms of product and geography, will be complemented by significant
synergies and projects that are among the worlds best. Our transaction with Falconbridge creates
an unrivalled combined project pipeline, which we believe is perhaps the most compelling in the
industry. Well be financially strong and resource rich, with a terrific exploration portfolio. You
cant duplicate these attributes. The New Inco will deliver shareholder value far beyond the
potential of any other player.
The New Inco will have a much more attractive portfolio of assets, focused on the best metals.
Combining Inco with Teck dilutes asset quality.
The New Inco will have superior growth in both nickel and copper 65 million more pounds of new,
low-cost nickel production in the Sudbury Basin and at Thompson, Manitoba by 2009 through feed flow
optimization and maximization of throughput achievable only through the combination of Inco and
Falconbridge.
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The transaction will be accretive on all financial metrics to our shareholders.
And the synergy story is real. I believe that the unique, tangible operating synergies represented
by the Falconbridge transaction are not reflected in Incos current share price.
In fact, weve been conservative on synergies. With seven months of work behind us, we now believe
the synergies will average about $550 million annually in the first five years. Some of the
increase comes from higher metal prices assumed in valuing the synergies but we have also
identified new projects and refined or dropped others. Price assumptions have added about $80
million to the average run rate and new projects have added about $120 million. On a net present
value basis, synergies are US$3.5 billion after tax, or C$3.9 billion about C$9.20 for each New
Inco share.
The new projects include reconfiguring Falconbridges Strathcona mill to process high copper,
cobalt and PGM ores, which will significantly improve recoveries.
We have further optimized planned production from the North Range in the Sudbury Basin. Our slide
is deliberately complex to make the point that synergies in Sudbury can only be gained through
single ownership of the mines and processing facilities. There are overlapping ore bodies and, more
importantly, there are overlapping exploration opportunities. Since October, we have added a net
$40 million of synergies by optimizing how well proceed with mine development of the North Range.
We identified a further $30 million of synergies by bringing forward mine development in Thompson
and adding mine development in Sudbury. These changes mean we will now be able to fill the combined
mill and smelter capacity in Manitoba and Ontario with our own mine sourced production.
A large percentage of the synergies are unique to the combination of our two companies and are
right in our mutual backyard the Sudbury Basin, where we have contiguous nickel mining
operations. It is simplistic to say these opportunities can be gained through some sort of joint
venture. Realizing synergies means major changes in material flows and important long-term
commitments. It requires the support of our people in Sudbury. Also, synergies in nickel are harder
to realize than in other metals. A joint venture might get some limited synergies but it would take
much longer to realize them. We believe the value of these synergies should be enjoyed by the
shareholders who now own the operations. We plan a full presentation on our synergies in Sudbury in
June.
I stand with all my fellow Board members in recommending that Incos shareholders reject the Teck
offer. We will work hard to protect the best interests of our shareholders. And we will work hard
to ensure all shareholders realize the significant value in Inco. As the situation evolves, we will
continue to evaluate strategic alternatives to enhance shareholder value. As we do so, we hope
Incos shareholders will work with us to fend off the opportunistic and inadequate offer for Inco
from Teck.
Ill now be happy to take questions.