Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/c92786) has announced the addition of new IE Market Research report 2Q08 South Africa Mobile Forecast, 2008 - 2010: Vodacom to lose market share to Cell C and Virgin Mobile in South Africa’s mobile operator space to their offering.
This Mobile Forecast on South Africa provides over 65 operational and financial metrics for the South Africa wireless market. We cover quarterly historical data starting in 4Q2003 and ending in 4Q2007. We also provide four-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2010. Operators covered for South Africa include: Vodacom, MTN (M-Cell), Cell C, and Virgin Mobile. Our Mobile Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Notable highlights of the 2Q08 South Africa Mobile Forecast include:
- The number of total subscribers in South Africa will increase from 47.5 million in 2008 to 55.9 million in 2010. This change results in a rise in the wireless penetration level from 98.1% in 2008 to 113.1% (which is significantly higher than our 1Q08 forecast of 94.8%) in 2010.
- Over the forecast period of 2008 - 2010, the market shares of the largest three operators will remain roughly the same. Vodacom, MTN (M-Cell), and Cell C will continue to have approximately 51.0%, 35.8% and 12.3% of the total subscribers during this period. We note that Cell C is growing more rapidly than our 1Q08 forecast suggested.
- A smaller operator, Virgin Mobile, is expanding steadily and we forecast that it will provide wireless services to 0.9% of the total subscribers in South Africa in 2010.
- Our models are forecasting that in 2010, MTN (M-Cell) will receive the highest ARPU in the country at US$ 19.02 per month. On the other hand, Cell C will receive the lowest ARPU of US$ 13.74 per month.
- Vodacom will continue to enjoy a higher profitability level than MTN. We forecast that EBITDA margins will be 36.4% and 34.9% for Vodacom and MTN respectively in 2010.
Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Forecast:
- Cell C
- MTN (M-Cell)
- Virgin Mobile
- Vodacom
List of Charts:
Charts 1-68 Results & Forecasts for: CY04-CY10
(For Vergin Mobile, only subscribers data and revenue data are available)
Chart 1: PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS -
Chart 2: SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
Chart 3: SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 4: SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 5: NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 6: NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
Chart 7: MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR
Chart 8: POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 9: POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 10: PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 11: PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
Chart 12: POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 13: PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 14: POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 15: POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 16: PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 17: PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
Chart 18: GROSS ADDITIONS BY OPERATOR
Chart 19: GROSS ADDITIONS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 20: MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
Chart 21: MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
Chart 22: DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR -
Chart 23: MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR -
Chart 24: DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) -
Chart 25: MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
Chart 26: VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 27: VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR -
Chart 28: VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) -
Chart 29: MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) -
Chart 30: MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) -
Chart 31: AGGREGATE MOU BY OPERATOR -
Chart 32: AGGREGATE MOU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) -
Chart 33: SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 34: HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
Chart 35: SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 36: SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR -
Chart 37: SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR -
Chart 38: SHARE OF GROSS ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 39: SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 40: HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
Chart 41: YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
Chart 42: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 43: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 44: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 45: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) -
Chart 46: SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 47: EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 48: EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 49: EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 50: EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 51: CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR -
Chart 52: CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR -
Chart 53: (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR -
Chart 54: EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
Chart 55: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 56: ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 57: DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) -
Chart 58: VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) -
Chart 59: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 60: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 61: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) -
Chart 62: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 63: ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 64: DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR) -
Chart 65: VOICE REVENUE/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (EUR) -
Chart 66: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 67: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 68: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (EUR) -
Charts 69-136 Quarterly Results for: Dec 04 - Dec 07
Chart 69: PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
Chart 70: SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
Chart 71: SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 72: SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 73: NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 74: NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
Chart 75: MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR
Chart 76: POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 77: POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 78: PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 79: PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
Chart 80: POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 81: PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 82: POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 83: POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 84: PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 85: PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
Chart 86: GROSS ADDITIONS BY OPERATOR
Chart 87: GROSS ADDITIONS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 88: MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
Chart 89: MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
Chart 90: DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
Chart 91: MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
Chart 92: DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 93: MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
Chart 94: VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 95: VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR
Chart 96: VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 97: MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)
Chart 98: MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
Chart 99: AGGREGATE MOU BY OPERATOR
Chart 100: AGGREGATE MOU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
Chart 101: SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 102: HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
Chart 103: SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 104: SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 105: SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 106: SHARE OF GROSS ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 107: SHARE SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 108: HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
Chart 109: YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
Chart 110: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 111: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 112: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 113: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) -
Chart 114: SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 115: EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 116: EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 117: EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 118: EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 119: CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR -
Chart 120: CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR -
Chart 121: (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR -
Chart 122: EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
Chart 123: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 124: ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 125: DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 126: VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 127: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 128: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 129: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) -
Chart 130: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 131: ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 132: DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 133: VOICE REVENUE/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 134: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 135: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 136: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (EUR) -
- Not available for this country forecast
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/c92786
Contacts:
Laura Wood, Senior Manager
Fax: +353 1
4100 980
press@researchandmarkets.com
