Wall Street has set ambitious price targets for the stocks in this article. While this suggests attractive upside potential, it’s important to remain skeptical because analysts face institutional pressures that can sometimes lead to overly optimistic forecasts.
At StockStory, we look beyond the headlines with our independent analysis to determine whether these bullish calls are justified. Keeping that in mind, here are three stocks where Wall Street may be overlooking some important risks and some alternatives with better fundamentals.
CarMax (KMX)
Consensus Price Target: $85.26 (33.6% implied return)
Known for its transparent, customer-centric approach and wide selection of vehicles, Carmax (NYSE: KMX) is the largest automotive retailer in the United States.
Why Do We Pass on KMX?
- Poor same-store sales performance over the past two years indicates it’s having trouble bringing new shoppers into its brick-and-mortar locations
- Gross margin of 10.8% is an output of its commoditized inventory
- High net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 15× increases the risk of forced asset sales or dilutive financing if operational performance weakens
At $63.81 per share, CarMax trades at 15.9x forward P/E. To fully understand why you should be careful with KMX, check out our full research report (it’s free).
The Honest Company (HNST)
Consensus Price Target: $7.17 (59.3% implied return)
Co-founded by actress Jessica Alba, The Honest Company (NASDAQ: HNST) sells diapers and wipes, skin care products, and household cleaning products.
Why Is HNST Not Exciting?
- Revenue base of $389.4 million puts it at a disadvantage compared to larger competitors exhibiting economies of scale
- Free cash flow margin shrank by 6.6 percentage points over the last year, suggesting the company is consuming more capital to stay competitive
- Negative returns on capital show management lost money while trying to expand the business
The Honest Company is trading at $4.50 per share, or 16.3x forward EV-to-EBITDA. Dive into our free research report to see why there are better opportunities than HNST.
Mercury General (MCY)
Consensus Price Target: $80 (19.3% implied return)
Founded in 1961 and maintaining a network of over 6,300 independent agents across the country, Mercury General (NYSE: MCY) is an insurance company that primarily sells automobile insurance policies through independent agents in 11 states, with a strong focus on California.
Why Does MCY Fall Short?
- Day-to-day expenses have swelled relative to revenue over the last four years as its pre-tax profit margin fell by 12.8 percentage points
- Muted 2.3% annual book value per share growth over the last five years shows its capital generation lagged behind its insurance peers
- Below-average return on equity indicates management struggled to find compelling investment opportunities
Mercury General’s stock price of $67.07 implies a valuation ratio of 2x forward P/B. If you’re considering MCY for your portfolio, see our FREE research report to learn more.
High-Quality Stocks for All Market Conditions
The market surged in 2024 and reached record highs after Donald Trump’s presidential victory in November, but questions about new economic policies are adding much uncertainty for 2025.
While the crowd speculates what might happen next, we’re homing in on the companies that can succeed regardless of the political or macroeconomic environment. Put yourself in the driver’s seat and build a durable portfolio by checking out our Top 5 Growth Stocks for this month. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 183% over the last five years (as of March 31st 2025).
Stocks that made our list in 2020 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,545% between March 2020 and March 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-micro-cap company Tecnoglass (+1,754% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today for free. Find your next big winner with StockStory today. Find your next big winner with StockStory today
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