In the commodities asset class in February 2026, gold, silver, platinum, ethanol, and crude oil refining spreads posted double-digit percentage gains, while cocoa, natural gas, Arabica coffee, FCOJ futures, and cryptocurrencies suffered double-digit percentage declines. While the leading stock market indices were little changed, bonds and the dollar index moved higher.
Precious metals recovered, while copper was steady
Silver futures posted an 17.88% gain in January, gold moved 10.60% to the upside, while platinum and palladium were up 11.87% and 5.70%, respectively. Prices recovered from the correction in late January and early February when gravity hit the precious metals sector. While prices were higher in February, gold, silver, and platinum remained below their January record highs.
The daily May COMEX silver futures chart shows that the price rose to a record high of $122.675 per ounce on January 29, then fell below $65 and settled at $93.291 on February 27. Silver was 17.88% higher in February.
April gold reached a record high of $5,626.80 on January 29.
The daily April COMEX gold futures chart illustrates the late January and early February plunge that took gold to a low of $4,423.20 per ounce on February 2. Gold made higher lows and higher highs throughout February, posting a 10.60% gain for the month that ended on Friday, February 27.
Platinum and palladium futures rose 11.87% and 5.70%, respectively, in January. Three of the four precious metals traded on the CME’s COMEX and NYMEX division posted double-digit percentage gains in February as the bull market continued after a substantial speed bump at the end of January and in early February. The ascent of precious metals prices continues to be a commentary on the value of the U.S. dollar and fiat currencies.
COMEX copper futures for May 2026 delivery moved 1.30% higher, settling at over $6 per pound on February 27, 2026. Precious and nonferrous metals remain on a bullish path as the markets enter March 2026.
Gains in energy, except for natural gas
Natural gas futures led the energy sector lower in February as the shoulder season approaches in spring. Nearby April NYMEX natural gas futures fell 29% in February and settled below $2.86 per MMBtu.
Rising Middle East tensions put a bid under the crude oil and oil product markets.
April WTI and May Brent crude oil futures rose by 3.52% and 6.24%, respectively. Since Brent futures serve as the benchmark for Middle Eastern crude oil, Brent outperformed WTI in February. Oil products rallied, with gasoline and heating oil futures posting 5.32% and 7.29% respective gains. The products outperformed the crude oil, sending the gasoline crack spreads higher in February. However, heating oil futures outperformed crude oil, leading distillate refining spreads to lead on the upside as Brent crude oil is refined into distillate products. Chicago ethanol swaps rallied 10.53% as the 2026 driving season is on the horizon, while coal futures for delivery in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, rose nearly 6.43% in February on the back of gains in oil and oil product prices.
The outbreak of war in the Middle East on February 28 sent crude oil and oil product prices substantially higher in early March.
Grains were higher, softs and lumber were lower, and meats were mixed
As the 2026 crop year in the Northern Hemisphere approaches, uncertainty over weather, the ongoing war in Ukraine, rising demand driven by population growth, and biofuel demand have caused grain and oilseed prices to rally in February.
CBOT soybean futures led the way on the upside with an 8.70% gain, followed closely by CBOT soft red winter wheat, with an 8.33% gain. CBOT corn futures moved 2.93% higher in February. The weather and other factors over the coming months will determine the path of least resistance of grain and oilseed futures prices.
Over the past few years, soft or tropical commodities have been the high-flying segment of the agricultural commodities market. While the ICE cotton and world sugar futures posted marginal 1.05% and 0.36% marginal gains in February, the other three soft commodities posted double-digit percentage losses. ICE cocoa futures, which exploded to a new all-time high in late 2024, fell 31.66% in February, while frozen concentrated orange juice futures, which rallied to record highs in 2024, dropped 13.76% during the month ending on Friday, February 27. Arabica coffee bean futures, which reached a record high in February 2025, dropped 10.97% in February 2026. Commodity cyclicality slammed the cocoa, FCOJ, and coffee bean futures over the past months.
Cattle futures declined in February, with the April live and feeder cattle futures falling 1.93% and 1.97%, respectively. Meanwhile, April lean hog futures edged 0.60% higher for the month ending on February 27, 2026.
Lumber futures moved 6.89% lower in February, trading at around $581 per 1,000 board feet on the active month May 2026 futures contract. Lumber was in the heart of the construction offseason, but prospects of lower interest rates in 2026 could lift prices over the coming months.
Spotlight on cryptocurrencies and bonds
Bonds moved higher in February as the prospects for lower short-term interest rates and the President’s appointment of Kevin Warsh to replace Fed Chairman Jerome Powell boosted optimism in the bond market.
The chart highlights the 3.30% rise in the long bond futures. Meanwhile, the dollar index rallied 0.73%, moving above the 97.50 level at the end of February. Lower interest rates and a stronger U.S. dollar index are mixed signals for commodity prices.
Time will tell whether bonds can continue to rally, and whether the dollar index, which is in a longer-term bear market, moves lower as rates decline. The war in the Middle East caused bonds to fall and the dollar index to rise during the first trading session in March.
Cryptocurrencies continued to fall in February, with Bitcoin and Ethereum posting double-digit percentage declines. Bitcoin fell 21.77% while Ethereum did even worse, plunging 28.17%. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile assets, which have experienced boom-and-bust price action since 2010.
Factors to watch in March 2026- The economic and geopolitical landscapes remain turbulent
As the commodities move into March, they are moving toward spring. Seasonality favors some strength in grains, meats, and gasoline, and weakness in natural gas as the shoulder season approaches. Expect volatility in gasoline prices during the driving season and in the meats as the 2026 grilling season on the horizon. The situation in the Middle East is the most significant factor for crude oil and oil product prices over the coming days and weeks.
Keep a close eye on those metals, as gold, silver, and copper remain in long-term bullish trends. The continued decline in fiat currencies’ purchasing power remains a factor supporting metals.
The bull market in stocks continues, but the economic and geopolitical landscapes provide more than a few roadblocks. The odds favor a lower Fed Funds Rate under Kevin Warsh, the new Fed Chairman, replacing Jerome Powell.
Expect continued volatility in the commodities asset class in March 2026 and beyond, and you will not be surprised or disappointed.
On the date of publication, Andrew Hecht did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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