RBA Fixed Income Insights: These are not the recession signals you’re looking for

Over the last 40 years the US economy has slipped into recession 6 times. During those 40 years, the difference between 10y yields and 2y yields (2s10s curve) has reliably dipped into negative territory on average about 18m before GDP turns negative (Chart 1). Today the 2s10s curve is once again...