ManpowerGroup faced a difficult first quarter as heightened economic and policy uncertainty led to a cautious approach from clients across major markets, particularly in Europe and North America. While revenues surpassed Wall Street expectations, CEO Jonas Prising described the environment as “significantly more uncertain and cautious” following recent U.S. trade policy announcements. The company noted softening in permanent recruitment and reduced outplacement activity, with CFO Jack McGinnis highlighting that weaker demand for permanent hiring, especially in France and select European countries, was the key factor behind margin pressures and lower-than-expected profitability.
Is now the time to buy MAN? Find out in our full research report (it’s free).
ManpowerGroup (MAN) Q1 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $4.09 billion vs analyst estimates of $3.97 billion (7.1% year-on-year decline, 2.9% beat)
- EPS (GAAP): $0.12 vs analyst expectations of $0.51 (76.7% miss)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $62.1 million vs analyst estimates of $73.16 million (1.5% margin, 15.1% miss)
- EPS (GAAP) guidance for Q2 CY2025 is $0.70 at the midpoint, missing analyst estimates by 29.6%
- Operating Margin: 0.7%, in line with the same quarter last year
- Organic Revenue fell 2.4% year on year (-5.3% in the same quarter last year)
- Market Capitalization: $1.9 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions ManpowerGroup’s Q1 Earnings Call
- Andrew Steinerman (JPMorgan) asked about the potential rebound if U.S. tariff uncertainty is resolved. CEO Jonas Prising said a quick policy resolution could lead to an equally rapid turnaround in employer confidence and hiring.
- Manav Patnaik (Barclays) questioned whether the weakness in permanent hiring signals upcoming layoffs. Prising responded that, so far, clients are holding onto existing staff but pausing new hires, especially for lower-skill roles.
- Mark Marcon (Baird) inquired about cost savings from restructuring and the impact of the new French tax. CFO Jack McGinnis said most restructuring is headcount-related, with margin benefits expected by Q2, and that the French tax increase is anticipated to be a one-year event.
- Kartik Mehta (Northcoast Research) asked if technology platforms like LinkedIn are driving structural changes in staffing. Prising stated no major impact from these platforms except for some software roles affected by AI-driven productivity gains.
- Trevor Romeo (William Blair) requested details on U.S. Manpower brand improvements and the timeline for back-office transformation benefits. Prising credited new client offerings and AI-driven analytics, while McGinnis expects margin improvements from technology investments starting in 2026.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In the coming quarters, our analysts will watch for (1) stabilization or improvement in permanent hiring trends, particularly in France and Northern Europe; (2) evidence that restructuring and cost actions are supporting margin recovery; and (3) progress in ManpowerGroup’s technology and AI initiatives, including client adoption rates and operational efficiencies. The resolution of trade policy uncertainty and changes in employer sentiment will also be critical signposts.
ManpowerGroup currently trades at $41.08, down from $49.45 just before the earnings. Is the company at an inflection point that warrants a buy or sell? The answer lies in our full research report (it’s free).
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