Best’s Market Segment Report: Casualty Reinsurance Capacity Remains Plentiful, Concerns Over Future Availability Loom

Rising litigation costs and higher jury awards continue to generate financial pressure within the casualty reinsurance segment, forcing reserve strengthening measures for some carriers and prompting narrower margins, according to a new AM Best report.

The Best’s Market Segment Report titled, “Casualty Reinsurance Capacity Remains Plentiful Amid Concerns,” states that reinsurers continued to provide ample capacity through the recent January 2025 renewal season. However, there is potential for the casualty segment to encounter an availability crisis in the absence of interim actions to offset some pressure points. A panel discussion during a recent AM Best briefing on reinsurance renewals indicated that U.S. reinsurers with a casualty reserve portfolio that gain 8%-10% in rate increases are not keeping pace with loss cost trends. The markets that are pushing for 15%-20% rate increases may be the ones that overcome these challenges, according to that discussion.

“Social inflation remains a key driver of casualty loss trends on past years and continues to create uncertainty across the casualty landscape amid negative social sentiment,” said Dan Hofmeister, associate director, AM Best.

Hofmeister was referring to the rising costs of insurance claims due to a combination of factors such as increased litigation, higher jury awards and a broader interpretation of policy coverage. These factors have placed substantial pressure on reinsurers, forcing them to reassess their pricing models and reserve adequacy. In 2024, many global reinsurers reported reserve strengthening efforts to combat adverse development.

In 2022, a lack of investor willingness to absorb increased property market volatility led many reinsurers to reduce their dedicated capacity for the related lines of business. Much of that capacity was redirected into casualty lines, which the equity markets appear to favor. “We examined publicly traded reinsurers’ stock prices over the past 20 years,” said Guilherme Simoes, senior financial analyst, AM Best. “We found that reinsurers with higher allocations to property lines saw a lower average yearly increase in stock prices compared with those with higher allocations to casualty lines.”

The report notes that reinsurance market reported adverse reserve development on prior casualty years throughout 2024, and the problems are not anticipated to slow in the near term. The casualty segment differs from the property in that it is more complex and cannot be resolved through simple changes to attachment points or underlying terms. The underlying business will continue to deteriorate as social inflation drives up loss costs, according to the report.

To access the full copy of this commentary, please visit http://www3.ambest.com/bestweek/purchase.asp?record_code=351628.

AM Best is a global credit rating agency, news publisher and data analytics provider specializing in the insurance industry. Headquartered in the United States, the company does business in over 100 countries with regional offices in London, Amsterdam, Dubai, Hong Kong, Singapore and Mexico City. For more information, visit www.ambest.com.

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