What Happened?
Shares of private equity firm Carlyle Group (NASDAQ: CG) jumped 2.7% in the afternoon session after reports surfaced that the company was in talks to acquire a majority stake in an Indian home mortgage firm, Nido Home Finance. The discussions were reportedly part of a strategy to increase investments in India's financial services sector. According to sources familiar with the matter, Carlyle targeted an initial investment of $300 million in the Mumbai-based lender, which is owned by Edelweiss Financial Services Ltd. This potential deal highlighted a trend of global investors seeking more exposure to India's rapidly growing housing finance market, and the stock's movement suggested investors viewed the potential expansion positively.
After the initial pop the shares cooled down to $55.42, up 2.6% from previous close.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Carlyle’s shares are somewhat volatile and have had 13 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The biggest move we wrote about over the last year was about 1 month ago when the stock dropped 5.7% on the news that the company reported third-quarter financial results where revenue fell significantly short of analysts' expectations, alongside a slight miss on fee-related earnings. The global investment firm generated revenue of $782.5 million, a 12.6% decline from the previous year and a 20.7% miss against Wall Street's forecast of $987.3 million. Additionally, fee-related earnings, a key measure of recurring profitability for asset managers, came in at $311.9 million, narrowly missing estimates. The results were not all negative, as the firm's Assets Under Management (AUM) grew 5.9% year-over-year to $474 billion, beating expectations by 6%. However, investors appeared to focus on the significant revenue shortfall, which drove the negative sentiment around the stock.
Carlyle is up 9.3% since the beginning of the year, but at $55.42 per share, it is still trading 20.1% below its 52-week high of $69.35 from September 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Carlyle’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $1,924.
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