The latest Fox News survey of Pennsylvania voters finds Vice President Kamala Harris in a dead heat with former President Donald Trump. This comes two weeks after the former president was shot in an assassination attempt in the Keystone State, and one week after President Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race and endorsed Harris.
The state of the race is similar to where it was in April, when Biden and Trump were tied 48-48%. The survey, released Friday, shows Harris and Trump locked in a tie at 49-49% -- barely different from what the final election results were in 2020 (49.85% Biden vs. 48.69% Trump).
Since April, Harris has held on to most of Biden’s coalition while Trump’s groups have stayed firm, but there are a few notable shifts in voting patterns from the spring.
Trump has closed the gap with voters under 30 (-27 points in April to -4 points today), voters 65 and over (-5 to -1), suburban women (-32 to -12), those with a college degree (-18 to -10) and has widened it slightly among Independents (+8 to +9).
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Harris has narrowed the gap among White men without a degree (-34 points to -28 points).
Seven in 10 Pennsylvanians are extremely motivated to vote this year, with Democrats slightly more enthusiastic (75%) than Republicans (72%), and Independents decidedly less enthused at 43%. Overall, those extremely motivated to vote are a bit more likely to back Harris (51% to 49% Trump).
The expanded ballot shows Harris with a 2-point edge: 45% Harris, 43% Trump, 7% Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein and Cornel West with 1% each. Third parties hurt Trump here as 10% of his two-way supporters go for someone else compared to 7% of Harris’ supporters.
Voters are split on Harris’ favorable rating: 49-49%. Still, views of her are better than Biden (41% favorable, 57% unfavorable) or Trump (46-53%).
Those with negative views of both Biden and Trump back Harris by 41 points. In April, Biden was up by only 27 points among these so-called double haters.
"While the horserace remains deadlocked, there’s more under the surface to suggest Democrats are in a significantly better position in Pennsylvania than in April," says Democrat Chris Anderson, who conducts Fox News surveys with Republican Daron Shaw. "The Democrat at the top of the ticket is now more favorable than Trump and Democrats are more motivated, and the key group of double haters are breaking more heavily for Harris than they were for Biden."
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, who is widely considered to be on Harris’ shortlist of potential running mates, receives a 61% favorable rating -- the highest of any individual tested. His rating has improved by 10 points since July 2022 when he was campaigning for governor.
The survey also finds he does better than Harris in a hypothetical matchup against Trump: Shapiro 54% to Trump’s 44%, for a 10-point lead. That is outside the margin of error.
That’s because Shapiro outperforms Harris among key groups such as women, White voters, those under age 30 and over 65, college graduates, Republicans, Independents, and suburban voters. He does slightly worse with nonwhites compared to Harris.
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer was also tested against Trump. She fares about the same as Harris: 48% Whitmer vs. 49% for Trump in a potential matchup. Her favorable rating sits at 38% favorable vs. 34% unfavorable while 28% can’t rate her.
Those receiving the lowest favorable ratings are Trump’s running mate JD Vance (38% favorable, 47% unfavorable) and Minnesota Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar (32-35%), although 15% can’t rate Vance and 33% can’t rate Klobuchar.
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Biden’s job approval rating is down slightly from April, underwater by 12 points (44% approve, 56% disapprove) compared to 10 points in the spring (45-55%). One factor keeping the race tight is that voters who somewhat disapprove of Biden go for Trump by only 5 points.
And while 78% approve of Biden’s decision to withdraw from the presidential race, two-thirds say he should finish his term (65% finish term, 33% resign).
Majorities of Democrats (86%), Republicans (69%), and Independents (78%) support Biden stepping aside from the campaign. Democrats and Independents think he should finish his term as president, while Republicans are more likely to want him to resign.
Overall, 47% want Harris to replace Biden, including 74% of self-identified Democrats. Shapiro comes in second among both groups for replacing Biden (20% all voters, 14% Democrats). Just 2% of voters want Whitmer or Klobuchar.
Shapiro and Whitmer are set to campaign for Harris in Pennsylvania on Monday.
Four in 10 Pennsylvanians say the economy will be the most important issue to them when voting this fall. That’s the highest of the issues tested and comes as three times as many voters say they are falling behind (44%) rather than getting ahead financially (14%). Another 4 in 10 (42%) are holding steady. The only other issues in double digits are immigration (16%) and abortion (15%). All others are under 10%.
"Even more so than in other battleground states, the economy is everything in Pennsylvania," says Shaw. "Trump’s edge on the economy in general, and inflation in particular, is why he is better positioned now than he was four years ago, and that’s the biggest problem for Harris."
Economy and immigration voters back Trump by 31 and 86 points respectively, while abortion voters back Harris by 67 points.
A few more things…
In the Senate race, incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania leads Republican challenger David McCormick by 13 points. It also shows he performs better than Harris does against Trump, with Casey getting 55% support to McCormick’s 42%.
Some 15% of Trump supporters switch sides to Casey while just 3% of Harris backers defect to McCormick.
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Conducted July 22-24, 2024 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,034 Pennsylvania registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (131) and cellphones (636) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (267). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Sampling error associated with subgroup results is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Sources for developing weight targets include the American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data.
