North Carolina likely voters put former President Donald Trump ahead of Kamala Harris in the presidential contest, according to a new Fox News survey. That’s unchanged since September.
Trump is ahead by 49-47% among likely voters, while third-party candidates receive 4%. In the two-way contest, his edge narrows to 1 point -- a useful indicator as pre-election surveys often overstate support for third-party candidates.
Among the larger universe of registered voters, Harris is up by 1 point on both the expanded ballot (48-47%) and head-to-head (50-49%).
The differences between Harris and Trump on all ballot tests fall within the margin of error.
The previous Fox News survey of North Carolina voters, released in September, also had Trump favored by just a touch among likely voters and Harris narrowly up among registered voters.
Looking at results on the full ballot among likely voters, Trump is favored among Whites without a college degree, White voters overall, rural voters, and voters ages 65 and over.
Harris is preferred among Black voters, urban voters, voters with a college degree, and those under age 35. She also has a small edge among suburban voters, driven by her wider margin among suburban women than Trump’s lead among suburban men.
Trump is meeting or exceeding his 2020 numbers among these groups, while Harris’ support trails what President Joe Biden received among Blacks, young voters, and suburban voters, according to the North Carolina Fox News Voter Analysis election survey.
There is a 20-point gender gap, as men back Trump by 13 points and women go for Harris by 7.
The former president is helped by North Carolina having more of the kinds of voters who make up his base. More identify as Republican than Democrat, fewer have college degrees, and there are far more rural than urban voters.
Trump has won the Tar Heel state twice, in 2016 by nearly 4 percentage points and in 2020 by just over 1 point. In the last 20 years, former President Barack Obama was the only Democrat to win North Carolina, and that was by less than half a point in 2008.
"Whoever wins North Carolina will likely do two things, win the suburbs with a stronger closing message and maximize turnout in their base areas," says Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts Fox News surveys with Republican Daron Shaw.
When likely voters are asked who they trust to handle top issues, they favor Trump on immigration (by 17 points), the conflict in the Middle East (+10), and the economy (+6). Harris is preferred to handle election integrity (+4) and abortion (+12).
Some 14% of Harris supporters trust Trump on handling immigration, while 11% of those backing Trump trust Harris on abortion.
By a 5-point margin, more voters see Trump as a strong leader, while more say Harris has the right temperament to be president by 5 points. There are smaller differences on helping the middle class (Harris +3), protecting American democracy (Harris +3), fighting for people like you (Harris +1), bringing needed change (Trump +2), and saying what they believe rather than what will get them elected (Trump +3).
More Trump backers (75%) than Harris backers (71%) say they are extremely interested in the election, while over 9 in 10 of each candidates’ backers say they are certain of their vote choice.
By a 4-point margin, more voters view both Harris and Trump negatively than positively, 48% favorable vs. 52% unfavorable for each. By comparison, President Joe Biden’s personal rating is underwater by 13 points (43-56%).
Harris is up by 2 points among the 4 in 10 who say they have already voted (50-48%). Overall, voters who say they will cast their ballot early favor Trump by 1 point, while he is favored among those planning to vote on Election Day by 7 points.
In the governor’s race, Democrat Josh Stein leads Republican Mark Robinson by 16 points, 57-41%.
Support for Stein overperforms support for Harris because 14% of those backing him also favor Trump in the presidential race.
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"Despite carrying a troubled gubernatorial candidate and having to mobilize voters in areas devastated by the hurricane, Trump continues to run slightly ahead by generating enthusiastic support among key Republican constituencies," notes Shaw.
Poll-pourri
Among the larger sample of registered voters …
-- Harris gets a touch more support among Democrats (95%) than Trump receives from Republicans (93%), as well as narrowly capturing Independents (46% vs. Trump’s 41%, within the margin of error).
-- While Trump enjoys the backing of 76% of non-MAGA Republicans, Harris gets 17%, with another 5% favoring a third-party candidate (there are too few to breakout among the likely voter subsample).
-- Trump’s advantage has narrowed to just 3 percentage points on handling the economy, down from a 7-point lead last month and a 9-point lead in August.
-- Equal numbers of voters say they are holding steady financially as say they are falling behind (44% each), while only 1 in 10 feel their family is getting ahead. Those numbers are unchanged since February, despite major flooding and damage from Hurricane Helene in September.
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Conducted October 24-28, 2024 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,113 North Carolina registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (164) and cellphones (685) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (264). Results based on the full registered voter sample and the subsample of 872 likely voters have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Likely voters are based on a probabilistic statistical model that relies on past vote history, interest in the current election, age, education, race, ethnicity, church attendance, and marital status.
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
