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December 11th, 2017

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Stocks Jump, Then Dump On April 12 ↗

April 12, 2022

Because nominal rates fell initially, it dragged real rates down, which led to the equity market pop. But by the end of the day, the market decided real rates still needed to rise, which was basically...

Via Talk Markets

TIPS Breakeven Vs Michigan Inflation Expectations ↗

April 10, 2022

Ordinary people’s inflation expectations as reported in the University of Michigan Survey depend critically on food and energy inflation. In contrast, professional forecasters use core inflation. Which...

Via Talk Markets

9 Monster Stock Market Predictions For The Week Of April 11 ↗

April 10, 2022

This coming week will be a holiday-shortened one, with the markets closed on Friday ahead of the Easter Holiday. That will move options expiration to Thursday. The big news will come on Tuesday, with...

Via Talk Markets

Stocks Play Fill The Gap And Double Top Game On April 7 ↗

April 07, 2022

Stocks managed to rally, with the S&P 500 mustering just enough to finish up 40 bps and close the gap from yesterday’s drop. I

Via Talk Markets

Russian Invasion And The Hawkish Fed: A Killer Combo For Gold? ↗

April 07, 2022

While the Russia-Ukraine conflict keeps the PMs’ hopes alive for now, their medium-term fundamentals are growing more bearish by the day.

Via Talk Markets

Inflation Outlook ↗

February 23, 2022

US inflation remains elevated and appears on track to remain so for the immediate future.

Via Talk Markets

Nomura: "Shock Tightening" In Financial Conditions Is Allowing "Macro Truths" To Override Technicals ↗

April 06, 2022

The recent rally in stocks is, macro-wise, incoherent with what has been happening in financial conditions.

Via Talk Markets

Stocks Drop On January 5 As Fed’s Grip Grows Tighter ↗

April 05, 2022

The S&P 500 fell by roughly 1.25%, while the Nasdaq finished down over 2%. Today’s drop quickly erased yesterday’s advance.

Via Talk Markets

Weekly Market Pulse: What Now? ↗

April 04, 2022

The yield curve inverted last week. Well, the part everyone watches, the 10 year/2 year Treasury yield spread, inverted, closing the week a solid 7 basis points in the negative.

Via Talk Markets

The Logical-Invest Newsletter For April 2022 ↗

April 03, 2022

Most of our strategies were positive as the market rebounded from last month’s selloff. Let's take a closer look at how our portfolio performed.

Via Talk Markets

Inflation Expectations And Forecasts ↗

April 02, 2022

Taken literally, average expected inflation over the next five years is coming down. Except for short-term, the surveys indicate a deceleration in inflation relative to today’s levels.

Via Talk Markets

Weekly Market Pulse: The Cure For High Prices ↗

March 28, 2022

There’s an old Wall Street maxim that the cure for high commodity prices is high commodity prices. As prices rise two things will generally limit the scope of the increase.

Via Talk Markets

9 Monster Stock Market Predictions For The Week Of March 28 ↗

March 27, 2022

It will be a critical week for stocks after weeks of gains. The S&P 500 finished Friday in an exciting spot and at more than one inflection point. It may mark the start of a bigger run higher to the...

Via Talk Markets

Government Solutions Worsen Every Problem Government Creates ↗

March 25, 2022

Stocks are going up and down while gold is just going up. Bond prices are a function of government intervention and nothing else.

Via Talk Markets

Where Treasury & TIPS Yields May Be Headed? ↗

March 23, 2022

The March FOMC meeting confirmed one very important issue for the money and bond markets: rates are going to continue to go up.

Via Talk Markets

Weekly Market Pulse: All Clear? ↗

March 21, 2022

Stocks staged a furious rebound last week based on…well, I’m not exactly sure what it was based on other than the relief that oil prices didn’t continue to go straight up.

Via Talk Markets

Risk-On Sentiment Resumed For Most Markets Last Week ↗

March 21, 2022

Most markets around the world staged a strong rebound last week, led by stocks in foreign developed markets ex-US.

Via Talk Markets

US Bond Market Under Pressure As Fed Raises Interest Rates ↗

March 17, 2022

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised its target interest rate by ¼ point, the first hike since 2018.

Via Talk Markets

Inflation-Protected Treasuries Rose As Global Markets Fell ↗

March 14, 2022

In another week of widespread selling of the major asset classes, US inflation-indexed Treasuries continued to rise.

Via Talk Markets

Consumers And Markets Both Agree, It’s Not Consumer Price Inflation ↗

March 12, 2022

Throw some Eastern European geopolitics into the mix, and surely consumers have been shoved over to the dark side of inflation.

Via Talk Markets

Recession? The Term Spread Over The Past Four Recessions ↗

March 08, 2022

The evolution of the 10yr-3mo and 10yr-2yr term spread in the months preceding the last four recessions.

Via Talk Markets

Commodities Continue To Soar As Ukraine War Rages ↗

March 07, 2022

Commodities remained the best-performing asset class by far last week for the major asset classes.

Via Talk Markets

Gold: Understanding What’s Driving Prices Higher ↗

March 07, 2022

The Russian/Ukraine crisis has been boosting inflation expectations. Remember, if oil prices are high then that increases inflation expectations.

Via Talk Markets

Will Oil’s Spike Cause A Recession And Bear Market? ↗

March 05, 2022

Learning from past supply disruptions. Also: Are bull/bear charts starting to roll over in the bear's favor?

Via Talk Markets

February 2022 Performance Review - Major Asset Classes ↗

March 01, 2022

Most markets around the world continued to slide in February, marking the second month of widespread losses in 2022 for the major asset classes.

Via Talk Markets

SOTU x 2 ↗

March 01, 2022

Both the State of the Ukraine and the State of the Union will hold the attention of markets today, the first day of March 2022.

Via Talk Markets

Stocks Drop On February 28 But The Real Risk Doesn’t Come Until Wednesday ↗

February 28, 2022

Stocks finished the day lower, with the S&P 500 falling around 24 bps, certainly not the disaster that many analysts envisioned given the sanction the US and Europe put on Russia.

Via Talk Markets

Markets Tested Risk-On Sentiment Last Week As War Rages Today ↗

February 28, 2022

Markets tried to look through Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last week, but as the brutal reality of war becomes clearer, and economic blowback spreads across the global economy, sentiment will come...

Via Talk Markets

The Stock Market Rally Is Not Likely To Last ↗

February 25, 2022

Stocks have ripped higher since February 24 as real rates plunged sparking a massive short-covering rally. But it does not change the overarching problem, the Fed.

Via Talk Markets

Real Yields Plunge On February 24, Sparking A Massive Short Covering Event ↗

February 24, 2022

Days like today are impossible to understand, and the only thing one can do is try and put the pieces together.

Via Talk Markets

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