While RIAs are positioning clients for market volatility, 45% see a moderate to high chance of a recession.
Registered investment advisors (RIAs) remain cautiously optimistic about the economy, according to the latest RIA Economic Outlook Index released by Security Benefit in partnership with Greenwald Research. The Index, which measures RIA sentiment on a scale from 0 (extremely pessimistic) to 100 (extremely optimistic), fell slightly to 58 in Q3, down from 60 in Q2.
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With U.S. inflation hovering around 2.7% according to the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index1 in August, most advisors are signaling confidence that price pressures will be contained. Seven in ten (69%) expect inflation to remain below 3% over the next year, while another 23% see only a modest uptick into the 3-3.9% range – suggesting that advisors do not see inflation as a near-term threat to economic stability.
“Advisors remain broadly confident about the road ahead, even as they keep a close watch on shifting market dynamics,” said Mike Reidy, National Sales Manager, RIA Channel at Security Benefit. “With many anticipating increased volatility as economic pressures, global tensions and tariffs remain in place, RIAs are positioning portfolios to capture upside while staying prepared for potential changes in Fed policy.”
Inflation Expectations Improve as Fed Eases Rates
Following the Federal Reserve’s cut to short-term rates at a target range of 4 to 4.25%, advisors are keeping an eye on continued cuts set for later this year.
Over 4 of 5 (84%) expected another rate cut from the Federal Reserve, a signal that many see monetary policy continuing to support growth into 2026. In anticipation, nearly a third (31%) have already increased client exposure to equities, underscoring how closely advisors are aligning portfolios with the shifting rate environment.
Many are positioning portfolios to capture growth opportunities while remaining mindful of the ripple effects of an extended softening cycle, considering products which include protection against market loss like fixed index annuities.
In response, over half (51%) have expanded educational efforts since the start of 2025, often pairing this with greater emphasis on relationship management and new client acquisition.
Mixed Market Forecasts
The majority of RIAs (64%) expect the S&P 500 to rise over the next 12 months, though there is less agreement on just how strong that growth will be. 18% see gains of 10% to 15%+, while about a third (31%) see gains in the 6–9% range. Another 15% anticipate a more modest 3-5% increase. Only 15% of advisors expect the index to decline, suggesting that despite differing views on the pace of growth advisors still see underlying market strength.
In addition, RIAs more likely believe (59%) that stock market volatility in the next 12 months will be about the same or lower. At the same time, some are bracing for headwinds. More than four in ten advisors (42%) anticipate increased volatility over the next year.
Combined with other findings like a belief by 57% in a low or no likelihood of recession, and six in ten with a belief that the One Big Beautiful Bill will stimulate the economy, these dynamics reflect an outlook where advisors are cautiously positioning portfolios for equity opportunities while keeping a close eye on potential risks.
Future-proofing Fixed Income
Beyond market sentiment, RIAs are working to close gaps in how investors plan for the future and medical costs are moving to the forefront. Nearly two-thirds (63%) say their clients underestimate the likelihood of needing long-term care, a concern that grows more pressing as healthcare costs rise and retirement hurdles grow.
Methodology
In August 2025, Greenwald Research surveyed 100 registered investment advisors from across the United States, each managing significant assets and directly interacting with clients. The online questionnaire collected crucial data on RIAs’ business practices, economic outlook, financial product usage, and client demographics. This method blended quantitative and qualitative insights, capturing key trends within the financial advisory industry.
About Security Benefit
Security Benefit, through its subsidiary Security Benefit Life Insurance Company (SBLIC), a Kansas-domiciled insurance company that has been in business for more than 133 years, is a leader in the U.S. retirement market. Security Benefit together with its affiliates offers products in a full range of retirement markets and wealth segments for employers and individuals and held $57.6 billion in assets under management as of June 30, 2025. Security Benefit, an Eldridge business, continues its mission of helping Americans To and Through Retirement®. Learn more at www.securitybenefit.com and follow us on LinkedIn, Facebook, or X.
About Greenwald Research
Greenwald Research is a leading independent research and consulting partner to the health and wealth industries that applies quantitative and qualitative research methods to produce insights that help companies stay competitive and navigate industry change. Leveraging deep subject matter expertise and a trusted consultative approach since 1985, Greenwald offers comprehensive services to answer strategic business questions.
SB-10073-71
FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY - NOT FOR USE WITH CONSUMERS
Annuities are issued by SBLIC in all states except New York.
Guarantees provided by annuities are subject to the financial strength of the issuing insurance company. Annuities are not FDIC or NCUA/NCUSIF insured; are not obligations or deposits of and are not guaranteed or underwritten by any bank, savings and loan, or credit union or its affiliates; and are unrelated to and not a condition of the provision or term of any banking service or activity.
Fixed index annuities are not stock market investments and do not directly participate in any equity, bond, other security, or commodities investments. Indices do not include dividends paid on the underlying stocks and therefore do not reflect the total return of the underlying stocks. Neither an index nor any fixed index annuity is comparable to a direct investment in the equity, bond, other security, or commodities markets.
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