How can the photovoltaic industry find opportunities in technology, policy and market?

July 07, 2025 at 11:38 AM EDT

In June 2025, the latest data disclosed by the National Energy Administration was like a bombshell: China's newly installed photovoltaic capacity in the first five months reached 198GW, of which the installed capacity in May alone surged 388% year-on-year. This figure not only far exceeded market expectations, but also revealed that the photovoltaic industry is undergoing an unprecedented transformation. In the wave of global energy transformation, China's photovoltaic industry is using technological innovation as a spear, policy adjustment as a shield, and market demand as a sail. Under the appearance of soaring installed capacity, it interprets the deep logic of industrial upgrading.

photovoltaic industry

Technological Revolution: Generational Leap from P-type to N-type

At the National Photovoltaic Demonstration Base in Changzhou, Jiangsu, the data of TOPCon components gaining 2.7% in power generation under high radiation weather in summer confirms the rise of N-type battery technology. This technological revolution has already begun: in 2024, the market share of N-type batteries has reached 79%, of which TOPCon technology occupies 50% of the market due to equipment compatibility and cost advantages, and HJT technology has obtained 30% share due to high bifaciality and low temperature coefficient. What is even more remarkable is the breakthrough of perovskite cells. The efficiency of Guangyin Technology's all-perovskite stacked cells reached 31.27%, a qualitative leap over the theoretical efficiency limit of 29.43% of traditional crystalline silicon cells. Its Xuzhou 200MW production line was completed in just 29 days, and the power of the first batch of components reached 450W, with the cost reduced by half compared with crystalline silicon cells.

Technology iteration is reshaping the industrial landscape. The 8GW capacity expansion of Longi Green Energy's Malaysian base and the 10GW N-type battery layout of Tongwei Co., Ltd. in Europe indicate that Chinese photovoltaic companies are breaking through trade barriers through technology licensing + local OEM model. In terms of application scenarios, BIPV (building integrated photovoltaic) technology has achieved multiple applications such as building curtain walls and new energy vehicle charging sheds. The Sheyang 452MW fish-light integration project has created a three-dimensional development model of "water power generation and underwater fish farming", and the land compound utilization rate has increased by 3 times.

Policy reconstruction: from subsidy dependence to market drive

The two policy nodes of April 30 and May 31, 2025, are like two heavy hammers to reshape the industrial ecology. According to the "Management Measures for the Development and Construction of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation", industrial and commercial projects connected to the grid before April 30 can still enjoy the "full access to the grid" mode, which directly triggered a nationwide rush to install. If a 6MW project in Shandong is delayed in connecting to the grid, the annual income will be reduced by 2.28 million yuan. There are even crazy scenes of "24-hour operation" in Yancheng, Jiangsu and Ningbo, Zhejiang. However, after May 31, new projects must fully enter the electricity spot market, and the electricity price mechanism will completely bid farewell to the "anchor point" of the coal-fired power benchmark price.

Regional policy differentiation exacerbates industrial reshuffle: Shandong's electricity spot market once had a "floor price" of 0.03 yuan/kWh, forcing companies to build energy storage; Hunan and Zhejiang forced new projects to access intelligent scheduling and allocate 10%-20% storage. Under this policy earthquake, the industry structure faces a deep reconstruction. Companies have shifted from relying on subsidies to the "self-generation and self-use + surplus power trading" model. An industrial park in Guangdong has achieved a comprehensive income of 0.15 yuan per kWh through "photovoltaic + energy storage + charging piles".

Market fission: from scale expansion to quality competition

Behind the soaring installed capacity data, structural contradictions have emerged in the industrial chain. According to data from the State Grid, in the first four months of 2025, the utilization rates of photovoltaic power generation in Tibet, Western Inner Mongolia, and Qinghai dropped to 68.0%, 86.0%, and 86.0%, respectively, and the contradiction of lagging grid absorption capacity was highlighted. In order to solve the dilemma, the State Grid's investment in 2025 exceeded 650 billion yuan for the first time, and the fixed asset investment of the Southern Power Grid reached 175 billion yuan. UHV transmission, intelligent dispatching, and distribution network upgrades became the focus of investment.

The market side showed two different sides: on the one hand, the output of components fell by 12.7% month-on-month in May, and the demand for distributed power supply decreased significantly in June; on the other hand, the high-end market continued to expand, and the winning bids of UHV equipment manufacturers such as China Western Electric and Pinggao Electric surged, and Hangzhou Haixing Electric won 141 million yuan in smart grid equipment. This differentiation reflects the path of industrial upgrading-when the industry bids farewell to extensive growth, technical penetration and market risk resistance become core competitive factors.

Future vision: from installation competition to ecological reconstruction

Standing at the time node of 2025, the photovoltaic industry is undergoing a qualitative change from "policy-driven" to "technological dividend". The mass production efficiency of perovskite stacked cells may exceed 26%, the power of N-type modules exceeds 600W, the cost of distributed photovoltaic electricity per kilowatt-hour has dropped to less than 0.25 yuan, and the energy storage cost has dropped to 0.8 yuan/Wh. Behind these technical indicators is the reconstruction of the industrial ecology: emerging markets such as the Middle East and South America contribute 30% of the increase, and Chinese companies break through trade barriers through the "technology licensing + local OEM" model; driven by the rural revitalization strategy, the new rural distributed installation is expected to exceed 200GW, and farmers will increase their annual income by thousands of yuan.

When the decline of policy subsidies accelerates the "de-bottle" of the industry, the competition rules of the photovoltaic industry have undergone a fundamental change. In this installation competition, the companies that can truly cross the cycle will surely be those industry leaders who accurately step on the policy rhythm, anchor the next generation of technology singularity, and build a global triangle architecture. As the zero-subsidy era arrives, China's photovoltaic industry is using technological innovation to rewrite the rules of global energy transformation.

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How can the photovoltaic industry find opportunities in technology, policy and market?

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