RXO Releases the Q1 Curve Freight Market Forecast

February 24, 2025 at 08:30 AM EST

Today, RXO (NYSE: RXO), a leader in asset-light transportation solutions, released its proprietary Q1 2025 Curve Truckload Market Forecast. The long-trusted quarterly forecast continues under RXO following the company’s acquisition of Coyote Logistics and will now benefit from even more robust datasets thanks to the combined organizations.

The Curve, originally published in 2018, is a proprietary index that measures the year-over-year rate of change in truckload linehaul spot rates, exclusive of fuel. By using thousands of daily shipments spanning nearly 20 years, the Curve gauges truckload cycles as the balance of carrier supply and shipper demand shifts in a dynamic, fragmented marketplace. Logistics professionals have come to rely on quarterly Curve updates to validate their own supply chain strategies.

"The Curve has been a leading index for years — now, as a combined organization, it’s going to become even more robust. As the third-largest freight brokerage in North America, we have an immense set of data spanning industries, geographies and business sizes,” said Jared Weisfeld, chief strategy officer at RXO. “RXO is uniquely positioned to provide industry-leading insights, and we couldn’t be more eager to share them with shippers and carriers so they can make informed decisions based on changing market dynamics.”

The Q1 Curve update — which recaps fourth-quarter performance, covers macroeconomic indicators and trends driving the truckload market and provides a first-quarter freight market forecast — shows a truckload market on the rise, as rates again head higher year-over-year.

The Q4 Curve index showed spot rates up 11.6% year-over-year at the end of 2024.
The increase was driven by a combination of seasonal holiday shipping amidst tightening truckload capacity and favorable year-over-year comparisons.
While we are still operating in a prolonged soft freight market, contractual rates are moving higher and momentum is building.

"Over the holidays, we saw market rate and coverage KPIs reach levels we haven’t hit since Christmas 2022. While we have seen some of those gains moderate through the first quarter to date, the baseline has reset higher,” said Corey Klujsza, vice president of pricing and procurement at RXO. “Though the rest of 2025 may not look like the peak in the COVID-era truckload market, we’re seeing continued signs that we’re past the bottom of the cycle.”

The Curve exemplifies RXO’s commitment to providing market-based, data-driven insights that help shippers and carriers navigate the dynamic truckload market. To read the full Q1 Curve report, visit rxo.com/resources/research/us-truckload-market-guide.

About RXO

RXO (NYSE: RXO) is a leading provider of asset-light transportation solutions. RXO offers tech-enabled truck brokerage services together with complementary solutions including managed transportation and last mile delivery. The company combines massive capacity and cutting-edge technology to move freight efficiently through supply chains across North America. The company is headquartered in Charlotte, N.C. Visit RXO.com for more information and connect with RXO on Facebook, X, LinkedIn, Instagram and YouTube.