With Mortgage Rates Declining, Homebuyers Must Decide: Buy Now With Little Competition, Or Bet on Rates Falling More?

September 18, 2025 at 08:00 AM EDT

Redfin reports pending home sales are up just 0.8% from a year ago, with many house hunters hoping rates will drop substantially more. But if that were to happen, sellers would regain the upper hand and home prices would likely rise more.

The median U.S. home-sale price rose 2.2% year over year during the four weeks ending September 14, the biggest increase in five months. That’s according to a new report from Redfin, the real estate brokerage powered by Rocket.

This week’s median monthly housing payment is $2,590, up slightly from last week’s nine-month low but still near the lowest level of 2025. Payments increased despite the weekly average mortgage rate dropping to 6.35%, the lowest level in nearly a year, because of rising prices.

Prices are rising despite slow sales because new listings are dwindling. Pending home sales are up just 0.8% from a year earlier, the smallest increase in two months. New listings are up just 1.1%, marking the third straight month they have increased or decreased by about 1% or less, and total listings are up 9.9%, the smallest increase since March 2024.

Mortgage rates have dropped to 6.35% from roughly 6.9% at the start of the summer because of weaker-than-expected jobs reports and anticipation of the Fed’s first interest-rate cut of the year, which came this week. While falling mortgage rates and more purchasing power have brought some house hunters off the sidelines, many are hoping rates drop further before making a move, according to Redfin agents.

“It is definitely a buyer’s market here,” said Tamara Mattox-Kabat, a Redfin Senior Premier Agent in Denver. “If they’re not priced and presented well from the outset, many homes are sitting on the market longer than usual, and many sellers are open to concessions. A lot of buyers are waiting for interest rates to drop further before making offers. The problem with that strategy is that if rates do fall again, more buyers will come off the sidelines, prices will rise, and sellers will regain their leverage. That means even with lower mortgage rates, buyers could end up with a higher monthly payment.”

The Fed cut interest rates this week, as expected, and signaled two more potential cuts before the end of the year. Redfin economists expect mortgage rates to remain steady as markets await further economic data, particularly the next jobs report, which comes out at the start of October.

For Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.

Leading indicators

Indicators of homebuying demand and activity
	Value (if applicable)	Recent change	Year-over-year change	Source
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	6.22% (Sept. 17)	Near lowest level in a year	Essentially flat	Mortgage News Daily
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	6.35% (week ending Sept. 11)	11-month low	Up from 6.2%	Freddie Mac
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)		Up 3% from a week earlier (as of week ending Sept. 12)	Up 20%	Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index		Down 7% from a month earlier (as of week ending Sept. 14)	Down 13%	A measure of tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents
Google searches of “homes for sale”		Up 11% from a month earlier (as of Sept. 15)	Up nearly 30%	Google Trends
Touring activity		Up 21% from the start of the year (as of Sept. 15)	At this time last year, it was up 8% from the start of 2024	ShowingTime

Key housing-market data

U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending Sept. 14, 2025 Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas and are based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.
	Four weeks ending Sept. 14, 2025	Year-over-year change	Notes
Median sale price	$392,225	2.2%	Biggest increase in 5 months
Median asking price	$402,475	2.9%	Biggest increase in 4 months
Median monthly mortgage payment	$2,590 at a 6.35% mortgage rate	5.2%	Up $24 from a week earlier, but still near lowest level since January
Pending sales	79,437	0.8%	Smallest increase in 2 months
New listings	89,670	1.1%
Active listings	1,205,479	9.9%	Smallest increase since March 2024
Months of supply	4.5	+0.4 pts.	4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions
Share of homes off market in two weeks	30.7%	Down from 32%
Median days on market	45	+6 days
Share of homes sold above list price	24.4%	Down from 28%
Average sale-to-list price ratio	98.5%	Down from 99%

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending Sept. 14, 2025 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.
	Metros with biggest year-over-year increases	Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases	Notes
Median sale price	Detroit (10.8%) Pittsburgh (9.4%) Cleveland (7.9%) San Jose, CA (6%) Milwaukee (6%)	San Francisco (-2.8%) Sacramento, CA (-1.3%) Portland, OR (-1%) Tampa, FL (-0.3%)	Declined in 4 metros
Pending sales	San Francisco (13.8%) Chicago (9.9%) West Palm Beach, FL (9.4%) Pittsburgh (8.6%) Riverside, CA (7.5%)	Houston (-14.2%) Las Vegas (-11.2%) Seattle (-9%) Denver (-6.4%) Tampa, FL (-6%)
New listings	Pittsburgh (15%) Baltimore (12.7%) Milwaukee (10.5%) Montgomery County, PA (10.3%) Minneapolis (9.7%)	Orlando, FL (-16.7%) Fort Lauderdale, FL (-14.2%) Tampa, FL (-13.9%) Houston (-10.1%) Anaheim, CA (-9.9%)

To view the full report, including charts, please visit:

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-mortgage-rates-decline-homebuyer-decision

About Redfin

Redfin is a technology-driven real estate company with the country's most-visited real estate brokerage website. As part of Rocket Companies (NYSE: RKT), Redfin is creating an integrated homeownership platform from search to close to make the dream of homeownership more affordable and accessible for everyone. Redfin’s clients can see homes first with on-demand tours, easily apply for a home loan with Rocket Mortgage, and save thousands in fees while working with a top local agent.

You can find more information about Redfin and get the latest housing market data and research at Redfin.com/news. For more information about Rocket Companies, visit RocketCompanies.com.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250918426034/en/

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With Mortgage Rates Declining, Homebuyers Must Decide: Buy Now With Little Competition, Or Bet on Rates Falling More?

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