NUMERATOR LAUNCHES TARIFF RISK INDEX TO QUANTIFY VULNERABILITY ACROSS CONSUMER CATEGORIES

May 16, 2025 at 09:00 AM EDT

CHICAGO, May 16, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Numerator, a data and tech company serving the market research space, announced the release of its Tariff Risk Index, a new analytical framework that integrates government trade data with Numerator consumer purchase panel and survey data to measure category-level vulnerability to tariff-driven disruption. The index is calculated from a blend of five variables (import reliance, tariff exposure, category buyer purchase power, U.S. consumer sentiment, and price sensitivity) that collectively indicate the likelihood of tariffs to impact a given category in context to the market.

In the revised trade deal announced on Monday (May 12, 2025), tariffs on Chinese imports were reduced from 145% to 30%. While the baseline 10% tariff rate remains on imports from other countries, this latest shift alters the risk landscape across categories. Items heavily reliant on Chinese plastic and rubber continue to rank among the most vulnerable, while categories with strong domestic production show significantly lower risk:

Categories with the highest risk include: Plastic Spoons, Forks & Knives (Tariff Risk Index of 145), Disposable Bowls (145), Disposable Plates (145), Disposable Cups (144), Hangers (141), Baking Dishes & Pans (140), Matches, Lighters & Lighter Fluid (137), LED Light Bulbs (136), Play Vehicles (135), and Power Toothbrushes (134).
Categories with the lowest risk include: Cream (48), Canned Tomatoes (51), Adult Allergy (51), Fresh Carrots (51), Unit Dose Dishwasher Detergent (52), Greek Yogurt (52), Adult Laxatives (53), Adult Heartburn (53), Nutrition Bars (53), and Meat Stocks (54).

With the fluctuations in tariff rates over the past two months, category risk has also changed. On April 2, 2025, the tariffs announced were determined by bilateral trade deficits, leading to elevated risk for grocery and food-related categories due to high import volumes from deficit-heavy countries. With the announcement on April 9th of a flat 10% tariff across most countries and a sharply increased 145% rate on Chinese imports, the risk shifted to general merchandise. With the May 12th proposed tariffs, imported items from countries other than China saw a rise in risk levels, as the relative impact of the 10% flat tariff on non-Chinese imports became more pronounced.

Tariff Risk Changes
Select Categories with U.S. Household Penetration >30%

	Category	April 9, 2025 Tariffs Scenario	May 12, 2025 Tariffs Scenario
Categories that Grew in Risk	Frozen Beef	60	72
	Bubbles (Wine)	81	93
	Olive Oils	67	79
	Shredded Cheese	90	101
	Brick & Chunked Cheese	89	100

	Category	April 9, 2025 Tariffs Scenario	May 12, 2025 Tariffs Scenario
Categories that Dropped in Risk	Ornaments (Christmas)	127	107
	Sponges	124	108
	Scouring Pads	120	106
	Disposable Bakeware	121	108
	Manual Toothbrushes	124	110

Source: Numerator, U.S. International Trade Commission. April 9th Tariff Scenario: 10% All Countries, excl. Canada & Mexico, 145% China. May 12th Tariff Scenario: 10% All Countries, excl. Canada & Mexico, 30% China

Methodology:
The Tariff Risk Index is calculated from a blend of five key datasets: 1) Import Reliance – Assesses how dutiable a category is on imported goods—categories with higher import reliance face greater disruption if trade barriers tighten. 2) Tariff Exposure – Quantifies the potential cost impact of proposed tariffs by evaluating where imports originate and how rates vary by country based on current policies. 3) Purchase Power – Identifies categories most reliant on lower-income households, where even small price increases may have an outsized effect on demand. 4) U.S. Sentiment – Surfaces where strong consumer preference for domestically made products could help stabilize demand in the face of rising tariffs. 5) Price Sensitivity – Measures how responsive consumer demand has been to price changes over time—an essential indicator of a category’s resilience under cost pressure.

How to read: A Tariff Risk Index score of 145 means the category is 45% more exposed to potential tariff-driven disruption than the average category in the market. A Tariff Risk Index score of 48 means the category is 52% less exposed to potential tariff-driven disruption compared to the market average.

For additional data and full methodology visit numerator.com/tariff-risk-index.

About Numerator:

Numerator is a data and tech company bringing speed and scale to market research. Numerator blends first-party data from over 1 million US households with advanced technology to provide 360-degree consumer understanding for the market research industry that has been slow to change. Headquartered in Chicago, IL, Numerator has 5,800 employees worldwide; 80 of the top 100 CPG brands’ manufacturers are Numerator clients.

Bob Richter
Numerator
212-802-8588
press@numerator.com

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NUMERATOR LAUNCHES TARIFF RISK INDEX TO QUANTIFY VULNERABILITY ACROSS CONSUMER CATEGORIES

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