Insiders Selling Into 3 Rallies: Investors Should Do the Opposite

November 19, 2024 at 07:00 AM EST

Photo of a Netflix logo on a TV screen, a container of spilled popcorn across the table in front of it. Insiders are selling into rallies in stocks like Fastenal (NASDAQ: FAST), Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG), and Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX), but investors should do the opposite. Investors should buy these stocks because the companies they represent are growing their businesses, outperforming expectations, and have solid outlooks for 2025 to sustain the uptrends in their share prices. Each of these stocks has seen double-digit gains over the past year, with further growth expected in 2025.

Fastenal Turns a Corner in 2025

Driven by diversification, Fastenal's top-line growth slowed to nearly 0% and then began to accelerate. Strength in the non-core segments is offsetting weakness in fasteners as industries, including automotive Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs), turn to maintenance while production levels are muted. The takeaway is that growth is accelerating sequentially and is forecast to accelerate in 2025, with revenue projected at 7.75% by the analysts' consensus estimate and earnings growing slightly faster.

Insider selling has been active this year, ramping to long-term highs in Q4. However, with ten insiders making 12 transactions in the last 90 days and the sales small, the activity aligns with share-based compensation and provides no red flags. Even without share-based compensation in the equation, the stock price is trading at record levels and offers an attractive profit for long-term holders, including the insiders. Conversely, the institutions have been buying on balance in 2024, providing a lift for the market. They own about 85% of the stock, and analysts' sentiment is also helping.

InsiderTrades tracks ten analysts who are relatively confident in the Hold rating, with 80% rating at Hold or higher. The consensus price target lags the market action in mid-November but is up 30% in the last year and rising after the latest earnings report. The revision trend suggests a move to the high-end range is possible, another 5% upside from $82.50.

Photo of FAST stock chart

Intuitive Surgical: An Intuitive Buy for Growth Investors

Intuitive Surgical is the leading medical technology player because of its da Vinci surgical systems. The AI-enabled robotic systems allow for less invasive surgeries with better outcomes and are gaining traction in the healthcare industry. Highlights from the latest report extend trends, which include an increasing installed base compounded by rising comps at installed locations. Comps are driven by increased penetration of communities where they are located and increasing numbers of procedure approvals. The critical detail for investors is that the growing revenue base drives a substantial recurring revenue for the tools business and a solid cash flow.

InsiderTrades tracks eight insiders who have made 16 transactions in the last 90 days. Insiders who are selling include directors, EVPs, SVPs, the CEO, and general counsel. As with Fastenal, the sales align with executives who receive share-based compensation, which is not a red flag. Shares of this stock are up nearly 40% this year and more than double the low set in late 2022.

Photo of ISRG stock chart

Netflix Insiders Sell: Stock Is at Record Highs

Netflix insiders are selling their stock because it is trending higher and setting record highs. Their activity is less concerning than Fastenal or Intuitive Surgical despite its insider seller list, including chairman Reed Hastings and other critical insiders. Highlights from 2024 include better-than-expected user growth and leveraged top and bottom-line growth.

Growth is driven by expanding territory and deepening penetration, aided by the crackdown on password sharing and new ad-supported tiers. Growth is expected to sustain at a solid double-digit pace in 2025 and may accelerate in 2026. The long-term opportunity is for the ad business to gain sufficient traction to attract major advertisers, which is expected to happen by the end of 2025.

The analysts rate Netflix as a Moderate Buy, and roughly 85% agree. The consensus price target lags the market for the stock but is rising compared to last year, Q2, and last month. The latest targets include several newly initiated coverages, one of which set a high price target of $88 or about 25% above the price action in mid-November.

Photo of NFLX stock chart

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Insiders Selling Into 3 Rallies: Investors Should Do the Opposite

Fastenal Turns a Corner in 2025

Intuitive Surgical: An Intuitive Buy for Growth Investors

Netflix Insiders Sell: Stock Is at Record Highs

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