Institutions Skipped the Rally: Where the Money Went

May 08, 2025 at 07:00 AM EDT

2025 Market Lessons

After President Trump rolled out the trade tariffs in the United States, the S&P 500 went on a path lower, even breaching the Wall Street definition of a bear market (a 20% decline or more from recent highs). That seemed to give many agents in the market enough reason to start buying the dip, as investors will find out shortly.

However, now that the S&P 500 has left that bearish territory, there was no new money to be accounted for on the way up, meaning that the big players who got in at the bottom see no reason to risk more capital and chase a move higher. Evidently, several reasons present in today’s market suggest the bear market isn’t done yet, but that doesn’t mean everything is doomed.

Far from it, as the most recent quarter (made up of April and May 2025 so far) did report new institutional buying activity in some regions of the market, areas that confirm the belief that the bear market might not be over yet. Some of these areas are the consumer staples sector through the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA: XLP), but that is only the beginning of where big money decided to start flowing into recently.

Taking Inventory: A Powerful Gauge

Through the Commitment of Traders report, investors can gauge whether institutions buy or sell certain indices or futures contracts. These figures are updated weekly to build on the themes further. The report suggests that millions of institutional capital flowed into the S&P 500 index during its bear market breach, and then the story changed.

Balances over the ensuing month show that these same institutions resumed their downsizing in S&P 500 inventory exposure, which might be a sign of their losing confidence in the future. Taking this viewpoint by itself might be a bit speculative, but there are other combined signs to paint a clearer picture moving forward.

This Is What Big Money Bought

The recent quarter reported that up to $804 million of institutional capital made its way into the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (NYSEARCA: XLP), typical behavior of investors looking for safer places during uncertain markets like today’s.

This play also has a value aspect, as the sector has significantly discounted names. When sentiment becomes overwhelmingly bearish, even the best and strongest get dragged down with the entire market. One worthy mention in this sector is PepsiCo Inc. (NASDAQ: PEP), which recently reported the lowest valuation multiples in over a decade.

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When volatility hits the market and safety becomes attractive again, it is natural to see big money lean into these themes, but it doesn’t stop there.

Investors can zoom out into the iShares S&P 500 Value ETF (NYSEARCA: IVE) and see a similar trend, focusing more on the value aspect of this rotation.

This value ETF reported an even higher conviction level in terms of committed capital, as up to $2.2 billion of buying took place in just the past two months alone, and investors cannot (nor should) ignore this.

Value and safety are where money wants to go, avoiding S&P 500 volatility; that is now clear.

However, a third place has been making headlines again, and one that ties this theme all together for investors to consider moving forward.

Gold’s Run Keeps Delivering

The price of gold keeps making new all-time highs seemingly every week nowadays, and considering that gold has now become a safe haven rather than the historical inflation hedge, the theme of what institutional capital is after has been made clear.

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Investors can track this conviction through the mere price action in gold, but here’s a more quantitative viewpoint for it.

As of the most recent quarter, the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA: GLD) has seen up to $1.4 billion in institutional buying, on top of the massive $17 billion of net buying that went into the fund over the past quarter.

Looking at price action, investors can see that this gold fund has outperformed the S&P 500 by as much as 15% over the past quarter.

That performance reflects not only strong technical momentum but also a broader flight to safety and signs of potential undervaluation.

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Institutions Skipped the Rally: Where the Money Went

Taking Inventory: A Powerful Gauge

This Is What Big Money Bought

Gold’s Run Keeps Delivering

Where Should You Invest $1,000 Right Now?

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