JACK Q2 Deep Dive: Sales Slide Amid Value Push and Store Closures

August 12, 2025 at 03:16 AM EDT

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Fast-food chain Jack in the Box (NASDAQ: JACK) fell short of the market’s revenue expectations in Q2 CY2025, with sales falling 9.8% year on year to $333 million. Its GAAP profit of $1.15 per share was in line with analysts’ consensus estimates.

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Jack in the Box (JACK) Q2 CY2025 Highlights:

Revenue: $333 million vs analyst estimates of $340 million (9.8% year-on-year decline, 2.1% miss)
EPS (GAAP): $1.15 vs analyst estimates of $1.15 (in line)
Adjusted EBITDA: $61.63 million vs analyst estimates of $64.59 million (18.5% margin, 4.6% miss)
EPS (GAAP) guidance for the full year is $4.64 at the midpoint, beating analyst estimates by 225%
EBITDA guidance for the full year is $272.5 million at the midpoint, below analyst estimates of $284.1 million
Operating Margin: 12.2%, up from -27.7% in the same quarter last year
Locations: 2,168 at quarter end, down from 2,195 in the same quarter last year
Same-Store Sales fell 6.3% year on year (-2.5% in the same quarter last year)
Market Capitalization: $320.6 million

StockStory’s Take

Jack in the Box’s second quarter results were met with a negative market response, as revenue fell short of analyst expectations and management acknowledged ongoing challenges in core markets. CEO Lance Tucker cited weaker demand from Hispanic and lower-income customers, particularly in regions where the brand is heavily concentrated, as a key headwind. Additionally, he pointed to the impact of recent price increases and difficult comparisons with last year’s successful promotions, stating, “The macro environment is very difficult, and consumers remain cautious.” Despite these setbacks, management emphasized renewed efforts to restore value and enhance the guest experience as critical to regaining sales momentum.

Looking ahead, Jack in the Box’s forward guidance is shaped by plans to balance pricing with value-focused promotions, investments in digital and operational improvements, and a major restaurant reimaging initiative. Management highlighted the company’s intention to pursue a “barbell” strategy, aiming to attract both value-seeking and premium customers, and to accelerate technology adoption in stores. Tucker noted, “We need to work on the entire guest experience, not just promotion or price,” with a focus on simplifying the menu, improving service, and modernizing restaurant formats. The company will also continue executing its JACK on Track closure program and explore strategic options for Del Taco.

Key Insights from Management’s Remarks

Management linked the quarterly decline to ongoing consumer caution, execution issues on value, and the impact of pricing changes, while outlining steps to improve operational consistency and guest engagement.

Guest value perception weakened: Management acknowledged that the brand’s value proposition had eroded, particularly for lower-income and Hispanic customers who are core to Jack in the Box’s footprint. Recent price hikes and a lack of compelling entry-level menu options contributed to softer traffic.
Return to “barbell” strategy: The company is refocusing on a barbell approach—combining affordable value items with premium products—to address gaps in the menu and restore traffic. Promotions like the Bonus Jack Combo and Spicy Chicken Strips are being supported by incremental marketing spend.
Operational leadership changes: The return of Shannon McKinney as Chief Operating Officer was highlighted as a catalyst for renewed emphasis on service quality and operational discipline, with a focus on holding restaurants accountable and improving consistency across locations.
Restaurant closure program advances: The JACK on Track initiative is proceeding, with closures of underperforming stores expected to improve franchisee profitability and allow for healthier same-store sales at remaining locations. Management expects these closures to benefit nearby stores through sales transfers.
Digital and tech investments accelerate: Technology upgrades—including point-of-sale system rollouts and increased digital ordering—are ahead of schedule. Over 2,000 restaurants now have upgraded systems, supporting management’s goal of reaching over 20% of sales through digital channels.

Drivers of Future Performance

The company’s outlook hinges on restoring value, modernizing stores, and navigating ongoing consumer headwinds, while also managing the financial impact of store closures and strategic reviews.

Menu and pricing rebalancing: Management plans to overhaul menu architecture, introducing more compelling entry-level price points and leveraging third-party expertise to ensure the menu appeals to a broader range of customers. This is expected to drive improved traffic and guest satisfaction.
Expansion of reimaging efforts: A multiyear restaurant modernization program is set to touch at least 1,000 additional stores, building on strong franchisee interest. The company expects upgraded locations to enhance brand perception and operational efficiency, although the financial outlay will be significant.
Execution of closure and divestiture plans: The ongoing JACK on Track program, including the closure of up to 120 stores and strategic review of Del Taco, is aimed at strengthening the core business. Management cautioned that while these actions should improve profitability over time, sales deleverage and transition costs may weigh on near-term results.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will monitor (1) whether value-focused menu changes and promotions translate into sustained traffic gains, (2) the pace and impact of restaurant modernization and technology rollouts, and (3) progress on the JACK on Track closure program and the outcome of the Del Taco strategic review. The effectiveness of incremental marketing investments and operational improvements will also be key markers for tracking the company’s turnaround.

Jack in the Box currently trades at $17.06, down from $18.93 just before the earnings. Is the company at an inflection point that warrants a buy or sell? Find out in our full research report (it’s free).

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