LUCK Q2 Deep Dive: Margin Recovery and Mixed Traffic Trends Amid Expansion Push

August 29, 2025 at 01:30 AM EDT

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Entertainment venue operator Lucky Strike (NYSE: LUCK) beat Wall Street’s revenue expectations in Q2 CY2025, with sales up 6.1% year on year to $301.2 million. The company’s full-year revenue guidance of $1.29 trillion at the midpoint came in 101,478% above analysts’ estimates. Its GAAP loss of $0.64 per share was significantly below analysts’ consensus estimates.

Is now the time to buy LUCK? Find out in our full research report (it’s free).

Lucky Strike (LUCK) Q2 CY2025 Highlights:

Revenue: $301.2 million vs analyst estimates of $293.4 million (6.1% year-on-year growth, 2.7% beat)
EPS (GAAP): -$0.64 vs analyst estimates of -$0.10 (significant miss)
Adjusted EBITDA: $88.73 million vs analyst estimates of $86.22 million (29.5% margin, 2.9% beat)
EBITDA guidance for the upcoming financial year 2026 is $395 million at the midpoint, below analyst estimates of $405.9 million
Operating Margin: 5%, up from -12.1% in the same quarter last year
Same-Store Sales fell 4.1% year on year (9.1% in the same quarter last year)
Market Capitalization: $1.47 billion

StockStory’s Take

Lucky Strike’s second quarter results were met with a negative market reaction, reflecting investor concern around a mix of strong revenue growth and persistent bottom-line challenges. Management attributed revenue gains to the success of seasonal pass offerings, expanded food and beverage options, and the integration of new water park and family entertainment center acquisitions. CEO Thomas Shannon noted that same-store sales improved sequentially through the quarter, with July turning positive, but softness in California and event business declines weighed on overall comparable store performance. Management acknowledged that higher marketing spend and recent acquisitions were strategic responses to these pressures.

Looking ahead, Lucky Strike’s outlook is built on continued investment in marketing, a planned acceleration of rebranding efforts, and further integration of water park assets. President Lev Ekster emphasized that the company will focus on optimizing its menu, hospitality training, and digital engagement to drive organic growth. Management’s guidance also factors in the seasonality of new assets and increased fixed costs, with CFO Robert Lavan stating, “the drag... is that the Boomers assets and the water parks, they run negative for most of the year, and then they dramatically over earn... in the summer.” The company sees opportunities for operating leverage and market share gains, but cautions that event-driven business and California’s performance remain areas to watch.

Key Insights from Management’s Remarks

Management pointed to strong momentum in membership programs, a growing food and beverage offering, and the integration of recent acquisitions as key drivers of the quarter’s performance. Shifts in marketing strategy and operational improvements were also highlighted as foundational to Lucky Strike’s evolving business model.

Season pass program momentum: Membership grew to over 260,000, with sales exceeding $13.4 million compared to $8.5 million last year. CEO Thomas Shannon credited dynamic marketing spend and employee engagement initiatives for this growth, noting the season pass program boosted guest visits and retail spend.
Menu and beverage innovation: The food and beverage segment outperformed overall comps, driven by new menu items, combo offerings, and the launch of a craft lemonade program. The craft lemonade alone generated nearly $800,000 in sales in two months, with non-alcoholic options seeing accelerated growth amid declining alcohol comps.
Acquisition-driven expansion: Two major water parks and three family entertainment centers were acquired, increasing Lucky Strike’s footprint and positioning the company in three core verticals: bowling, water parks, and high-quality family entertainment centers. Management believes these assets offer significant upside through operational improvements and cross-segment synergies.
Operational cost discipline: Payroll and repair/maintenance costs were reduced, offsetting some of the negative impact from same-store sales declines. CapEx was focused on high-return projects, with a notable decrease year-over-year as procurement efficiencies were realized.
Rebranding and marketing ramp-up: The rebranding effort to transition Bowlero locations to Lucky Strike was accelerated, with 55 locations already converted and 100 targeted by year-end. Increased marketing investment, particularly in underperforming markets like California, is expected to drive future comp improvement.

Drivers of Future Performance

Management’s forward outlook centers on scaling marketing, maximizing recently acquired assets, and improving same-store sales through hospitality and menu innovation, while acknowledging ongoing headwinds in events and select regional markets.

Marketing and brand investment: Continued increases in marketing spend are expected to drive awareness and guest traffic, particularly as the company aims to reach industry benchmarks for advertising as a percentage of revenue. Management expects brand-building efforts to support market share expansion and lift comps, especially in key markets undergoing rebranding.
Asset integration and seasonality: The integration of water parks and family entertainment centers is projected to shift revenue and profit seasonality, with negative contributions most of the year offset by significant summer gains. CEO Thomas Shannon highlighted that these new assets generate most of their earnings during peak months, which will impact quarter-to-quarter financial cadence.
Event and regional recovery: Management is targeting flat to positive trends in the event business and improved performance in California through targeted marketing and operational changes. CFO Robert Lavan noted that comps should benefit from easier comparisons and new initiatives as the year progresses, but acknowledged lingering uncertainties in these segments.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

In upcoming quarters, the StockStory team will focus on (1) the pace of same-store sales recovery in key regions like California, (2) early results from the expanded marketing and rebranding initiatives, and (3) integration progress and profit contribution from newly acquired water parks and family entertainment centers. Execution in food and beverage innovation and measured capital allocation will also serve as important indicators of sustained momentum.

Lucky Strike currently trades at $10.25, down from $10.68 just before the earnings. At this price, is it a buy or sell? See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free).

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