Transmission provider Allison Transmission (NYSE:ALSN) beat Wall Street’s revenue expectations in Q3 CY2024, with sales up 12% year on year to $824 million. The company expects the full year’s revenue to be around $3.18 billion, close to analysts’ estimates. Its GAAP profit of $2.27 per share was also 12% above analysts’ consensus estimates.
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Allison Transmission (ALSN) Q3 CY2024 Highlights:
- Revenue: $824 million vs analyst estimates of $790 million (4.3% beat)
- EPS: $2.27 vs analyst estimates of $2.03 (12% beat)
- EBITDA: $305 million vs analyst estimates of $282.3 million (8% beat)
- The company lifted its revenue guidance for the full year to $3.18 billion at the midpoint from $3.13 billion, a 1.4% increase
- EBITDA guidance for the full year is $1.15 billion at the midpoint, above analyst estimates of $1.13 billion
- Gross Margin (GAAP): 48.1%, in line with the same quarter last year
- Operating Margin: 31.6%, up from 30.2% in the same quarter last year
- EBITDA Margin: 37%, in line with the same quarter last year
- Free Cash Flow Margin: 25.5%, similar to the same quarter last year
- Market Capitalization: $8.70 billion
David S. Graziosi, Chair and Chief Executive Officer of Allison Transmission commented, "Demonstrated through our third quarter 2024 results, unprecedented demand for Class 8 vocational vehicles in our North America On-Highway end market continues to drive record performance for our business. Third quarter net sales increased 12 percent year over year, surpassed by an even stronger increase in diluted EPS, up 29 percent year over year to a quarterly record of $2.27 per share."
Company Overview
Helping build race cars at one point, Allison Transmission (NYSE:ALSN) offers transmissions to original equipment manufacturers and fleet operators.
Heavy Transportation Equipment
Heavy transportation equipment companies are investing in automated vehicles that increase efficiencies and connected machinery that collects actionable data. Some are also developing electric vehicles and mobility solutions to address customers’ concerns about carbon emissions, creating new sales opportunities. Additionally, they are increasingly offering automated equipment that increases efficiencies and connected machinery that collects actionable data. On the other hand, heavy transportation equipment companies are at the whim of economic cycles. Interest rates, for example, can greatly impact the construction and transport volumes that drive demand for these companies’ offerings.
Sales Growth
Reviewing a company’s long-term performance can reveal insights into its business quality. Any business can have short-term success, but a top-tier one sustains growth for years. Over the last five years, Allison Transmission grew its sales at a sluggish 3.3% compounded annual growth rate. This shows it failed to expand in any major way, a rough starting point for our analysis.
Long-term growth is the most important, but within industrials, a half-decade historical view may miss new industry trends or demand cycles. Allison Transmission’s annualized revenue growth of 9% over the last two years is above its five-year trend, suggesting its demand recently accelerated. 
We can better understand the company’s revenue dynamics by analyzing its three most important segments: North America On-Highway, International On-Highway, and Service and Support, which are 55.5%, 15.3%, and 20.4% of revenue. Over the last two years, Allison Transmission’s revenues in all three segments increased. Its North America On-Highway revenue (propulsion solutions) averaged year-on-year growth of 14.6% while its International On-Highway (propulsion solutions) and Service and Support (parts and equipment) revenues averaged 6.9% and 7.9%.
This quarter, Allison Transmission reported year-on-year revenue growth of 12%, and its $824 million of revenue exceeded Wall Street’s estimates by 4.3%.
Looking ahead, sell-side analysts expect revenue to remain flat over the next 12 months, a deceleration versus the last two years. This projection doesn't excite us and indicates the market believes its products and services will face some demand challenges. At least the company is tracking well in other measures of financial health.
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Operating Margin
Allison Transmission has been a well-oiled machine over the last five years. It demonstrated elite profitability for an industrials business, boasting an average operating margin of 28.7%. This result isn’t surprising as its high gross margin gives it a favorable starting point.
Analyzing the trend in its profitability, Allison Transmission’s annual operating margin rose by 4.5 percentage points over the last five years, showing its efficiency has improved.
In Q3, Allison Transmission generated an operating profit margin of 31.6%, up 1.4 percentage points year on year. The increase was encouraging, and since its operating margin rose more than its gross margin, we can infer it was recently more efficient with expenses such as marketing, R&D, and administrative overhead.
Earnings Per Share
We track the long-term change in earnings per share (EPS) for the same reason as long-term revenue growth. Compared to revenue, however, EPS highlights whether a company’s growth was profitable.
Allison Transmission’s EPS grew at a decent 9.8% compounded annual growth rate over the last five years, higher than its 3.3% annualized revenue growth. This tells us the company became more profitable as it expanded.
Diving into the nuances of Allison Transmission’s earnings can give us a better understanding of its performance. As we mentioned earlier, Allison Transmission’s operating margin expanded by 4.5 percentage points over the last five years. On top of that, its share count shrank by 27.2%. These are positive signs for shareholders because improving profitability and share buybacks turbocharge EPS growth relative to revenue growth. 
Like with revenue, we analyze EPS over a more recent period because it can give insight into an emerging theme or development for the business.
For Allison Transmission, its two-year annual EPS growth of 26.2% was higher than its five-year trend. This acceleration made it one of the faster-growing industrials companies in recent history.In Q3, Allison Transmission reported EPS at $2.27, up from $1.76 in the same quarter last year. This print easily cleared analysts’ estimates, and shareholders should be content with the results. Over the next 12 months, Wall Street expects Allison Transmission’s full-year EPS of $8.20 to grow by 7.5%.
Key Takeaways from Allison Transmission’s Q3 Results
We were impressed by how significantly Allison Transmission blew past analysts’ EBITDA expectations this quarter. We were also excited its revenue outperformed Wall Street’s estimates. The icing on the cake was guidance, with the company raising its full year revenue guidance. Zooming out, we think this was a good quarter with some key areas of upside. The stock traded up 4.4% to $104.50 immediately after reporting.
Allison Transmission had an encouraging quarter, but one earnings result doesn’t necessarily make the stock a buy. Let’s see if this is a good investment.What happened in the latest quarter matters, but not as much as longer-term business quality and valuation, when deciding whether to invest in this stock. We cover that in our actionable full research report which you can read here, it’s free.
