January Nymex natural gas (NGF26) on Wednesday closed up by +0.077 (+1.72%).
Dec nat-gas prices moved higher on Wednesday after weekly nat-gas storage fell more than expected. The EIA reported that nat-gas inventories fell -11 bcf in the week ended November 21, a larger draw than expectations of -9 bcf. Nat-gas prices extended their gains on Wednesday due to colder US weather forecasts, potentially boosting nat-gas heating demand. Forecaster Atmospheric G2 said Wednesday that forecasts shifted colder in the eastern and southern US for December 1-5, and turned colder in the eastern and northern US for December 6-10.
Higher US nat-gas production is a bearish factor for prices. On November 12, the EIA raised its forecast for 2025 US nat-gas production by +1.0% to 107.67 bcf/day from September's estimate of 106.60 bcf/day. US nat-gas production is currently near a record high, with active US nat-gas rigs recently posting a 2-year high.
US (lower-48) dry gas production on Wednesday was a record 113.1 bcf/day (+8.3% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand on Wednesday was 89.8 bcf/day (-0.7% y/y), according to BNEF. Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Wednesday were 18.4 bcf/day (+3.5% w/w), according to BNEF.
As a supportive factor for gas prices, the Edison Electric Institute reported last Wednesday that US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended November 15 rose +5.33% y/y to 75,586 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electricity output in the 52-week period ending November 15 rose +2.9% y/y to 4,286,124 GWh.
Wednesday's weekly EIA report was bullish for nat-gas prices, as nat-gas inventories for the week ended November 21 fell by -11 bcf, a larger draw than the market consensus of -9 bcf but less than the 5-year weekly average of a -25 bcf draw. As of November 21, nat-gas inventories were down -0.8% y/y and were +4.2% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling adequate nat-gas supplies. As of November 24, gas storage in Europe was 78% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 88% full for this time of year.
Baker Hughes reported Wednesday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending November 28 rose by +3 to 130 rigs, a 2.25-year high. In the past year, the number of gas rigs has risen from the 4.5-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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