With AI-Powered Analytics, Is Datadog (DDOG) a Stock to Watch?

Datadog, Inc. (DDOG) is an operator of an observability and security platform for cloud applications. It offers a wide range of products, including infrastructure and application performance monitoring, log management, digital experience monitoring, and database monitoring.

The company easily beat the analysts’ estimates in the last reported quarter. It reported second-quarter revenue of $645.28 million, exceeding analysts’ expectations of $625.10 million. Its EPS came in at $0.43, compared to the consensus estimate of $0.36.

During the second quarter, Datadog introduced various new products and capabilities like Datadog Kubernetes Autoscaling and Log Workspaces. The company continued its efforts of delivering innovations to cater to the customers and help them observe their environments, secure their infrastructures and workloads, and take necessary measures to remediate problems actively.

Olivier Pomel, co-founder and CEO of Datadog, commented, "Datadog executed well in the second quarter, with 27% year-over-year revenue growth, continued customer growth, and expanding multi-product adoption across our platform."

Datadog holds strong leadership in cloud monitoring and analytics in the cloud computing segment. The segment refers to the on-demand seamless access of computing resources consisting of servers, storage, databases, networking, software, analytics, and intelligence over the Internet.

However, DDOG competes with other leading cloud computing-centric companies driven by AI. These include Domo Inc. (DOMO), Okta Inc. (OKTA), Olo Inc. (OLO), and Workday Inc. (WDAY), which are set to deliver significant returns in the mid to long term. This can result in compromised profitability for DDOG as companies strive to leverage AI and enhance their capabilities and offerings

As per the company's third-quarter 2024 outlook, DDOG expects revenue between $660 million and $664 million. Its non-GAAP operating income is anticipated to be $146 million - $150 million, while non-GAAP net income per share is set to be $0.38 to $0.40.

For the full year 2024, Datadog’s revenue is expected to range from $2.62 billion to $2.63 billion. The company’s non-GAAP operating income is expected to be between $620 million and $630 million. And non-GAAP net income per share is projected to be $1.62 - $1.66.

Shares of DDOG have gained 8% over the past month and 12.3% over the past year to close its last trading session at $110.09. However, the stock has declined 10.9% over the past six months.

Let’s look at factors that could influence DDOG’s performance in the upcoming months.

Positive Recent Developments

On June 26, DDOG unveiled Datadog Kubernetes Autoscaling, a set of capabilities that intelligently automates resource optimization and automatically scales customers' Kubernetes environments based on real-time and historical utilization metrics. This made DDOG the first observability vendor to offer its customers to make changes to their Kubernetes environments.

Also, on the same day, the company launched Log Workspaces, a suite of capabilities in a powerful, collaborative space enabling analysts and engineers from all teams in an organization to connect logs and other datasets and build multi-stage queries to answer complex questions on business, security and application issues of sophisticated analytics.

Datadog also announced new additions to its security product portfolio, including Agentless Scanning, Data Security, and Code Security, allowing DevOps and security teams to easily secure their code, cloud environments, and production applications.

Mixed Financials

For the second quarter that ended June 30, 2024, DDOG’s revenue increased 26.6% year-over-year to $645.28 million. However, its cost of revenue also increased 21.3% year-over-year to $123.50 million. The company’s non-GAAP gross profit grew 27.9% from the year-ago value to $529.52 million, while the non-GAAP operating income of $157.54 million reflects an increase of 48% from the prior year's quarter.

Furthermore, the company’s non-GAAP net income after non-GAAP tax adjustments came in at $152.96 million and $0.43 per share, up 50.8% and 48.3% year-over-year, respectively. Also, its free cash flow increased 1.4% year-over-year to $143.78 million.

However, the company’s total liabilities stood at $2.01 billion as of June 30, 2024, compared to $1.91 billion as of December 31, 2023.

Favorable Historical Growth

DDOG’s revenue grew at a CAGR of 46.3% over the past three years. Its tangible book value increased at a CAGR of 47.2% over the same period, while the company's total assets grew at a CAGR of 28.6% over the same time frame.

However, the company’s levered free cash flow increased at a CAGR of 81.2% over the same timeframe.

Mixed Analyst Estimates

Analysts expect DDOG’s revenue for the third quarter (ending September 2024) to come in at $664.75 million, indicating an increase of 21.4% year-over-year. However, its consensus EPS estimate of $0.40 for the same period reflects a 12.1% year-over-year decline. The company has surpassed the consensus revenue and EPS estimates in all of the trailing four quarters.

Further, for the fiscal year 2024, the company’s revenue and EPS are anticipated to grow 23.7% and 26.8% year-over-year to $2.63 billion and $1.67, respectively. In addition, Street expects its revenue and EPS for the fiscal year 2025 to grow 22.3% and 16.1% from the prior year to $3.22 billion and $1.94, respectively.

Elevated Valuation

In terms of forward EV/Sales, DDOG is currently trading at 13.34x, 380.6% higher than the industry average of 2.78x. The stock’s forward non-GAAP P/E and Price/Sales of 65.75x and 14.10x are considerably higher than the industry average of 22.90x and 2.77x, respectively.

Additionally, the stock’s forward EV/EBITDA and Price/Book of 52.02x and 14.18x are 271.4% and 251.6% higher than the industry averages of 14.01x and 4.03x, respectively.

POWR Ratings Reflect Uncertainty

DDOG’s mixed fundamentals are reflected in its POWR Ratings. The stock has an overall rating of C, translating to a Neutral in our proprietary system. The POWR Ratings are calculated by considering 118 different factors, with each factor weighted to an optimal degree.

Our proprietary rating system also evaluates each stock based on eight distinct categories. DDOG has an A grade for Growth, in sync with its favorable historical growth.

However, the stock has a D grade for Value and Stability, consistent with its elevated valuation and mixed analysts’ estimates.

DDOG is ranked #17 among the 39 stocks in the Software - Business industry.

Beyond what I have stated above, we have also given DDOG grades for Momentum, Sentiment, and Quality. Get access to all the DDOG ratings here.

Bottom Line

DDOG reported mixed financial results in the last reported quarter. Further, the company’s long-term prospects appear promising, driven by its strategic investments and continuous innovations. However, it continues to grapple with increasing cost of expenses and rising competition from its peers.

Given DDOG’s mixed financials and elevated valuation, waiting for a better entry point in this stock seems prudent.

Stocks to Consider Instead of Datadog, Inc. (DDOG)

Given its near-term uncertain prospects, the odds of DDOG outperforming in the weeks and months ahead are compromised. However, there are many industry peers with much more impressive POWR Ratings. So, consider these A (Strong Buy) or B (Buy) stocks from the Software - Business industry instead:

SolarWinds Corporation (SWI)

VMware Inc. (VMW)

RingCentral Inc. Cl A (RNG)

For exploring more A and B-rated software stocks, click here.

What To Do Next?

Get your hands on this special report with 3 low priced companies with tremendous upside potential even in today’s volatile markets:

3 Stocks to DOUBLE This Year >

DDOG shares were trading at $107.20 per share on Friday afternoon, down $2.89 (-2.63%). Year-to-date, DDOG has declined -11.68%, versus a 14.42% rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.

Rajkumari started her career as a writer but gradually shifted her focus to financial journalism, leveraging her educational background in Commerce. Fascinated by the interplay of business and economic shifts in equities, she aspires to evolve as an analyst. With a knack for simplifying complex financial concepts, her mission is to empower investors with insights that lead to profitable decisions.

More...