Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is betting big on protein. The fast-casual chain announced its first dedicated High Protein Menu launching Dec. 23. The company's target is a dietary trend that has been dominating American eating habits for the past three years. High-protein diets have become the foremost nutritional focus nationwide. Around 70% of Americans now prioritize protein intake, with over one-third increasing their consumption over the past year.

This pivot will also help the company capture the growing demographic of GLP-1 drug users who require protein-dense, smaller portions. Will this lead to a windfall for the company, or will CMG stock continue sliding down? Let's take a look.

Chipotle Can Capture New Demographics With Strategic Pricing

Chipotle's new menu features a Single Chicken Taco starting at $3.50, making high-protein options accessible at multiple price points. The High Protein Cup, essentially a side of Adobo Chicken, allows customers to add substantial protein to any existing order for a nominal fee. This can boost margins without requiring new transactions as more customers choose the add-on.

This flexibility appeals to both budget-conscious consumers and premium buyers who want to maximize their protein intake. Chipotle has collaborated with influencers like Josh Hart on a 95-gram protein burrito to spread the word among demographics who are conscious about fitness.

Furthermore, the “meat cup” strategy is a direct response to the rise of GLP-1 weight-loss medications. Users of these drugs often require smaller, protein-dense portions to prevent muscle loss while managing reduced appetites. By offering these streamlined options, Chipotle is positioning itself as a convenient partner for a demographic that might otherwise avoid its traditional 1,000-calorie burritos. If successful, this pivot could diversify Chipotle's customer base and improve transaction frequency, which has been under pressure as traffic slowed earlier this year.​

Can Protein Turn Things Around for Chipotle?

CMG stock is down 38% in the past year and was in an even worse position around November, though there has been a 27% recovery from its trough.

It'll be an uphill battle for Chipotle to sustain this recovery rally without a major improvement in the company's financials. There have been a series of downward outlook revisions that shifted the outlook from mid-single-digit growth to a low-single-digit drop in same-store sales for the full year.

It's not exactly a “Chipotle problem” and more of a nationwide affordability issue, as lower-income groups have been squeezed out of restaurants. Even middle-class folks are having trouble justifying the cost of eating out. Thus, Chipotle's going to have to fight for a larger portion of a plateauing restaurant industry if it wishes to grow.

Chipotle's protein-centric items come with higher price points and integrate well into the company's own infrastructure. This means the company can increase margins and boost sales without a large investment. Analysts think this can lead to Q1 2026 same-store sales getting a bump.

Only time will tell if this bump will be large enough to translate into a major rally for CMG stock.

Should You Buy CMG Stock Now?

CMG stock has been on a downtrend since early 2024, and multiple recovery rallies since then ended up being head fakes. Sales and earnings are currently going through a rough phase, and they are only expected to start accelerating meaningfully around 2027. Meanwhile, you are paying nearly 33 times 2025 expected earnings for a stock that is expected to report 3.57% EPS growth for the year.

Sales growth is expected to be 5.3%, and you're paying over 4 times the midpoint of 2025 expected sales. Both figures are still quite high and don't scream a discount. CMG stock only looks attractive when you take 2027 and 2028 estimates into account, but a lot can change by then.

Analysts have also gotten slightly more pessimistic.

I believe the best strategy now is to hold and see if Q4 results lead to a substantial reversal. I wouldn't buy the dip in the stock just yet if you don't already own any.

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