Date: December 16, 2025

1. Introduction

Thryv Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: THRY), headquartered in Dallas, Texas, stands at a pivotal juncture in its corporate history. Once a titan in the traditional print directory and marketing services industry, Thryv has embarked on an ambitious and comprehensive transformation to emerge as a leading Software as a Service (SaaS) provider for small-to-medium sized businesses (SMBs). This strategic pivot, a multi-year endeavor, has placed the company firmly in the spotlight for investors and industry observers alike.

Thryv’s core mission is to democratize technology for SMBs, offering an all-in-one cloud-based software platform designed to streamline customer communication, marketing, and daily operations. Its eponymous Thryv platform bundles essential features such as customer relationship management (CRM), appointment scheduling, payment processing via ThryvPay, social media management, and marketing automation. The acquisition of Keap in late 2024 further bolstered its SaaS capabilities, expanding its sales and marketing automation tools. While the company is rapidly shedding its legacy Marketing Services division, which is slated for decommissioning by 2028, its future hinges on the successful scaling and profitability of its SaaS offerings.

Thryv is in focus due to its ongoing and largely successful strategic pivot. The shift towards a high-growth, high-margin SaaS model is generating significant investor interest, evident in the robust growth of its SaaS segment. In Q3 2025, SaaS revenue surged by 33% year-over-year to $115.9 million, now constituting 58% of total revenue. This growth is fueled by increasing client adoption, with 103,000 SaaS subscribers, and an expanding average revenue per unit (ARPU) of $365. The company’s commitment to deleveraging and improving profitability within its SaaS segment (SaaS Adjusted EBITDA reaching $19.6 million in Q3 2025) further underscores its relevance. Moreover, Thryv’s proactive integration of AI into its platform, particularly for home services businesses, positions it at the forefront of technological innovation for SMBs. As of December 16, 2025, Thryv's journey represents a compelling case study in corporate reinvention, balancing the wind-down of a declining business with the aggressive scaling of a modern software enterprise.

2. Historical Background

Thryv Holdings, Inc.'s narrative is one of profound evolution, tracing its origins back over a century to the nascent days of the print Yellow Pages industry. What began in Cheyenne, Wyoming, in 1881, eventually became intertwined with telecommunications giants before its dramatic transformation into a modern SaaS company.

The direct lineage to Thryv began in 2002 with the formation of Dex Media, Inc., following a massive $7.5 billion buyout of QwestDex by a private investor consortium. Dex Media went public on the NYSE in 2004, but the print directory industry faced increasing headwinds from the rise of the internet. A series of mergers and financial restructurings followed, including the acquisition by R.H. Donnelley Corporation in 2006 (which later became DEX One) and the 2013 merger of Dex One and SuperMedia LLC to form Dex Media, Inc., trading on NASDAQ as DXM.

A critical turning point arrived in 2016 when Dex Media completed a financial restructuring, emerging from Chapter 11 bankruptcy. This move significantly reduced its debt and allowed the company, with Golden Gate Capital taking a majority stake, to pivot towards digital marketing solutions. The launch of DexHub, an early digital marketing platform, foreshadowed the future.

The transformation accelerated in 2017 with the acquisition of YP Holdings, leading to the creation of DexYP. This combined entity aimed to provide local business automation software alongside digital and print marketing. Crucially, the Thryv software, an evolution of DexHub, became a centerpiece. In 2019, DexYP formally rebranded to Thryv, Inc., signaling a decisive shift towards a SaaS-first identity. The company went public via a direct listing on NASDAQ (THRY) in October 2020, solidifying its new strategic direction.

Since its IPO, Thryv has continued its aggressive pursuit of a pure-play SaaS model. In 2021, it acquired Australia's Sensis, expanding its international footprint, and in October 2024, it acquired Keap, significantly enhancing its sales and marketing automation capabilities. By Q1 2025, SaaS revenue surpassed 60% of total revenue, a testament to the successful business model transition. As of December 2025, Thryv is actively integrating AI into its platform, developing AI-driven tools for marketing, customer engagement, and operational efficiency, marking a continuous evolution in its long and storied history.

3. Business Model

Thryv Holdings, Inc. (THRY) operates a dual-segment business model, currently in a strategic transition phase. As of December 16, 2025, the company is deliberately shifting its revenue generation from legacy marketing services to a high-growth Software as a Service (SaaS) platform, primarily targeting small-to-medium sized businesses (SMBs) globally.

Revenue Sources:
Thryv's revenue is primarily derived from two distinct segments:

• SaaS Revenue: This is the company's strategic growth engine. It encompasses subscriptions and usage fees from its cloud-based Thryv platform and its integrated solutions, including the recently acquired Keap platform. In Q3 2025, SaaS revenue reached $115.9 million, a 33% increase year-over-year, and is projected to be between $460 million and $463 million for the full year 2025. This segment now constitutes 58% of total revenue, up from 48% in the prior year.
• Marketing Services Revenue: This legacy segment includes traditional print and digital marketing solutions, such as print Yellow Pages, search engine marketing (SEM), online display advertising, and search engine optimization (SEO) tools. This segment is in a planned decline, with a full decommissioning targeted by the end of 2028. In Q3 2025, Marketing Services revenue was $85.7 million, an 8% decrease year-over-year, with full-year 2025 guidance set between $323 million and $325 million.

Product Lines and Services:
Thryv's core offering is its eponymous Thryv platform, an all-in-one cloud-based software designed to simplify and automate various aspects of SMB operations. Key components and services within the SaaS segment include:

• Thryv Platform: This flagship product integrates several tools:
  • Business Center: For managing core business operations.
  • Marketing Center: Offers AI-powered tools for marketing campaigns, content generation, automated follow-ups, and scheduling. It's noted as Thryv's fastest-selling product.
  • Command Center: A centralized hub for internal and external communications.
  • ThryvPay: A proprietary payment processing solution.
  • Thryv Add-Ons: Additional functionalities to enhance the platform.
• Keap Automations: Following the October 2024 acquisition, Keap's email marketing and sales automation platform has been integrated, significantly boosting Thryv's sales and marketing automation capabilities.
• Specialized Solutions: Thryv develops tailored growth marketing solutions for specific industries, such as home services, with features like automated follow-up and integrations with industry-specific tools.

The Marketing Services segment, while declining, historically provided print and digital directory listings and various digital advertising solutions.

Segments:
Thryv Holdings, Inc. reports through two distinct business segments:

• Thryv SaaS: Focused on the cloud-based software platform and related services.
• Thryv Marketing Services: Encompasses the traditional print and digital marketing solutions being phased out.

Customer Base:
Thryv primarily serves small-to-medium-sized businesses (SMBs) across various industries. As of the end of Q3 2025, Thryv reported 103,000 SaaS clients globally, representing a 7% year-over-year increase. The company serves approximately 300,000 SMB clients across all segments, with a significant presence in the United States, Australia, and New Zealand. A key strategic focus is increasing average revenue per user (ARPU) through cross-selling and upselling additional products, with approximately 17,000 clients having purchased two or more SaaS products by Q2 2025.

4. Stock Performance Overview

Thryv Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: THRY) commenced public trading via a direct listing on October 1, 2020, opening at $14.00 per share. Consequently, a 10-year stock performance analysis is not applicable. The following overview covers its performance since its IPO up to December 16, 2025.

1-Year Performance (December 2024 – December 2025):
The past year has been challenging for THRY shareholders. Around December 31, 2024, the stock traded at approximately $14.80. As of December 15, 2025, THRY closed at $5.89, marking a substantial decline of roughly 60.1% over this one-year period. The stock hit a 52-week low of $5.25 in late October 2025, reflecting significant investor concerns despite the company's operational advancements in its SaaS segment. The 52-week high was $20.92.

5-Year Performance (December 2020 – December 2025):
Since its direct listing in October 2020 at $14.00, Thryv's stock has depreciated by approximately 57.9% to its current level of $5.89. While the company's predecessor, Dex Media, saw an all-time high of $88.00 in November 2018, this was prior to its restructuring and rebranding. Post-IPO, THRY experienced an initial period of investor enthusiasm, but has been in a notable slump since 2022, largely attributed to the complex optics of its business model transition.

Notable Moves and Key Factors Influencing Stock Price:

1. SaaS Transformation vs. Legacy Decline: The most significant factor influencing THRY's stock is its ongoing transition from a declining legacy print directory and marketing services business to a high-growth SaaS model. While the SaaS segment demonstrates robust growth, the planned wind-down of the legacy business has created a drag on overall consolidated revenue, leading to investor skepticism and impacting the stock price.
2. Acquisitions: The acquisition of Keap (Infusion Software) in October 2024 for $80 million aimed to bolster Thryv's SaaS offerings and expand its subscriber base. However, a public offering of common stock to partially fund this acquisition likely led to shareholder dilution, which can pressure stock prices.
3. Financial Performance and Earnings Reports:
   • Q3 2025: Shares plummeted nearly 40% after the Q3 2025 earnings report on October 30, 2025. Despite a 33% year-over-year SaaS revenue growth, the market reacted negatively to slightly lowered full-year SaaS revenue guidance, concerns about decelerating organic growth (14% excluding Keap), and weaker-than-expected free cash flow. The reported EPS of $0.13 also missed analyst estimates.
   • Q2 2025: Mixed results, with net income increasing but overall revenue declining due to the legacy business.
4. Analyst Sentiment: Analysts generally maintain a "Buy" or "Strong Buy" rating for THRY, often viewing the stock as undervalued (trading around 0.5x SaaS revenues). However, price targets have been lowered, with Needham reducing its target to $14.00 from $20.00 in October 2025, citing "general poor company execution" and overly optimistic Keap expectations. The average 12-month price target is around $15.00, suggesting a significant upside from current levels.
5. Insider and Institutional Activity: BlackRock, Inc.'s substantial acquisition of shares in December 2024 at $14.80 indicated institutional confidence. Insider buying, including purchases by the CEO, also suggests internal optimism.
6. Macroeconomic Factors: Broader market volatility and concerns impacting the small business segment, such as rising input costs and uncertain consumer demand, can indirectly affect Thryv's growth prospects and stock performance.
7. Product Innovation: The continuous introduction of AI-enabled marketing software and other platform enhancements aims to drive future growth and could act as a positive catalyst.

In summary, Thryv's stock performance reflects the complexities of its business transformation. While the underlying SaaS business shows promising growth, the market remains cautious due to the drag from the legacy segment, recent earnings misses, and concerns about growth deceleration, despite strong insider confidence and optimistic analyst price targets.

5. Financial Performance

As of December 16, 2025, Thryv Holdings, Inc. (THRY) has recently reported its Third Quarter 2025 financial results on October 30, 2025, showcasing a company in active transition with strong SaaS segment growth amidst the planned decline of its legacy Marketing Services.

Latest Earnings (Q3 2025, reported October 30, 2025):

• Consolidated Net Income: $5.7 million, or $0.13 per diluted share. This is a significant improvement from a net loss of $96.1 million, or $(2.65) per diluted share, in Q3 2024. However, the reported EPS of $0.13 missed analysts' consensus estimates of $0.43.
• Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA: $40.8 million, with an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.3%.
• SaaS Adjusted EBITDA: Nearly doubled year-over-year to $19.6 million, exceeding guidance, with a margin of 16.9%.
• Marketing Services Adjusted EBITDA: $21.2 million, with a margin of 24.8%.

Revenue Growth (Q3 2025):

• Consolidated Total Revenue: Increased by 12% year-over-year to $201.6 million, surpassing analysts' expectations of $200.81 million.
• SaaS Revenue: Grew by 33% year-over-year to $115.9 million. Excluding Keap, the organic SaaS growth was 14% year-over-year. SaaS now constitutes 58% of total revenue, up from 48% in Q3 2024.
• Marketing Services Revenue: $85.7 million, an 8% decrease year-over-year, reflecting the strategic wind-down of this segment.

Margins (Q3 2025):

• SaaS Adjusted Gross Margin: Improved to 73%, up 80 basis points year-over-year.
• SaaS Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 16.9%.
• Marketing Services Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 24.8%.

Debt (as of Q3 2025):

• Net Debt: Decreased by $9 million to $265 million.
• Leverage Ratio: Stood at 1.9 times. The company continues to prioritize debt reduction.

Cash Flow (Q3 2025):

• Operating Cash Flow: $22 million.
• Free Cash Flow: $14.6 million for the quarter, bringing year-to-date free cash flow to $18.8 million.

Valuation Metrics (as of Q3 2025 and recent stock performance):

• Trailing EPS: $0.41.
• P/E Ratio: 14.26 (based on a stock price of approximately $5.73).
• Expected EPS Growth: From ($2.24) to $1.14 per share in the next year, with annual earnings expected to grow at 32.6% per year.
• Stock Price: As of December 15, 2025, the stock closed at $5.89, having experienced a significant decline after the Q3 earnings release.
• Analyst Ratings and Price Targets: Average twelve-month price target of $13.00, implying a significant upside of 126.88% from the current price. However, the stock received 3 downgrades in the previous 90 days.

Outlook and Guidance for 2025 (updated October 30, 2025):

• Q4 2025 SaaS Revenue: Expected range of $118 million to $121 million.
• Full-Year 2025 SaaS Revenue: Updated range of $460 million to $463 million.
• Full-Year 2025 Marketing Services Revenue: Expected range of $323 million to $325 million.
• The company plans to fully exit its Marketing Services division by 2028, with cash flows lasting through 2030 to ensure strong liquidity during this transition.

Thryv's financial performance highlights the successful pivot to SaaS, marked by strong growth and improving profitability in this segment. While the legacy business continues its planned decline, the company's focus on debt reduction and free cash flow generation provides a solid foundation for its future as a pure-play SaaS provider.

6. Leadership and Management

Thryv Holdings, Inc. (THRY) is steered by an experienced leadership team and governed by a board committed to its strategic transformation into a SaaS-first company. As of December 16, 2025, the company's management is focused on executing this pivot and driving growth in the small and medium-sized business (SMB) software market.

CEO and Leadership Team:
Joe Walsh serves as the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, a role he has held since October 2014. With over 11 years at the helm, Walsh has been the architect of Thryv's dramatic shift from a traditional directory business to a modern SaaS provider. His compensation package, totaling $5.47 million, reflects a performance-oriented structure with a significant portion tied to bonuses, stock, and options. Walsh also holds a direct stake of 4.88% in the company, signaling strong insider alignment with shareholder interests.

The broader leadership team, with an average tenure of 3.5 years, brings a blend of experience and strategic vision. Key members include:

• Grant Freeman: President
• Paul Rouse: Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President & Treasurer
• John Wholey: Executive Vice President & Chief Operating Officer
• Lesley Bolger: Chief Legal Officer and Human Resources
• Sean Wechter: Chief Technology Officer (appointed October 2025), a leader noted for his "AI all the time" philosophy, underscoring Thryv's commitment to artificial intelligence.
• Tami Cannizzaro: Chief Marketing Officer
• Rees Johnson: Chief Product Officer

Board of Directors:
Thryv's Board of Directors, with an average tenure of 5.3 years, provides oversight and strategic guidance. It comprises:

• Joseph Walsh: Chairman & CEO
• John Slater: Lead Independent Director
• Independent Directors: Amer Akhtar, Ryan O'Hara, Bonnie Kintzer, Lauren Vaccarello, and Lou Orfanos (who joined in July 2025).

The board's composition, with a strong presence of independent directors, is a positive indicator of sound corporate governance.

Strategy:
Thryv's overarching strategy is to complete its transformation into a dominant SaaS provider for SMBs. Key pillars of this strategy include:

• SaaS-First Transformation: A methodical shift away from legacy marketing services, with a planned exit by 2028, to focus entirely on the high-growth, high-margin SaaS platform.
• Customer Engagement and ARPU Growth: Enhancing customer relationships and increasing average revenue per unit (ARPU) through multi-product adoption and upselling of additional features.
• Product Innovation with AI: Continuous investment in and integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to enhance the Thryv platform, offering SMBs advanced tools for marketing, operations, and customer engagement.
• Financial Discipline: Generating free cash flow, reducing debt, and deleveraging the balance sheet to ensure financial stability and flexibility for future growth initiatives.

Governance Reputation:
Thryv maintains a strong governance reputation, underscored by its comprehensive framework and ethical commitments:

• Code of Ethics and Business Conduct: A robust code guides all employees, promoting honesty, integrity, and compliance with laws.
• Corporate Governance Guidelines: These guidelines ensure the Board effectively fulfills its responsibilities to shareholders.
• Independent Board Committees: The Audit, Compensation, and Nominating and Corporate Governance Committees are all composed of independent directors, enhancing oversight and accountability.
• Key Policies: Policies such as Insider Trading, Related Person Transactions, and a Clawback Policy reinforce transparency and ethical conduct.
• Workplace Culture: Thryv has received external recognition as a "Most Loved Workplace" by Newsweek (2023, 2025) and a "Best Place to Work" by the Dallas Business Journal (2023), reflecting a positive internal environment.

While the company has faced legal disputes related to labor practices in the past, no specific controversies regarding its current governance reputation were identified as of December 2025. The leadership team appears committed to a clear strategic direction and sound governance practices as it navigates this transformative period.

7. Products, Services, and Innovations

Thryv Holdings, Inc. (THRY) is relentlessly evolving its product and service portfolio, driven by a clear vision to empower small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) through advanced, AI-powered Software as a Service (SaaS) solutions. As of December 16, 2025, the company's offerings reflect a strategic pivot away from traditional marketing services towards an integrated, intelligent platform.

Current Offerings:
Thryv's flagship product is its comprehensive, all-in-one sales and marketing software platform. This cloud-based solution is designed to simplify and automate various aspects of SMB operations, providing a single hub for critical business functions:

• Customer Relationship Management (CRM): Tools to manage customer interactions, data, and communication history.
• Online Scheduling & Appointments: Streamlined booking systems for clients.
• Invoicing & Estimates: Efficient financial transaction management.
• ThryvPay: A proprietary, integrated payment processing solution.
• Marketing Automation: Automated campaigns, email marketing, and customer outreach.
• Social Media Management: Tools for managing and scheduling content across various social platforms.
• Website Builder: Enables SMBs to create and manage professional online presences.
• Reputation Management: Monitoring and responding to online reviews to build a positive brand image.
• Enhanced Local Listings: Optimizing business information across online directories and search engines.
• Keap Integration: Following the late 2024 acquisition, Keap’s email marketing and sales automation platform has been integrated, significantly enhancing Thryv’s capabilities in these areas.

Concurrently, Thryv is in the process of phasing out its legacy Marketing Services division, with a complete wind-down anticipated by 2028, to fully concentrate on its higher-margin SaaS business.

Innovation Pipelines and R&D:
Thryv's innovation efforts are heavily invested in Artificial Intelligence (AI) to enhance its platform and provide SMBs with sophisticated, yet user-friendly, tools. Key innovations and R&D focus areas include:

• AI-Powered Marketing and Business Automations: Core to Thryv's strategy, AI is embedded across the platform to save time, improve efficiency, and enable SMBs to compete effectively.
• AI Website Builder: Launched in late 2025, this tool allows businesses to generate complete, SEO-ready websites with AI-generated design, copy, and images rapidly.
• AI Content Generator and Automation Assistants: Features like "Caption AI" for social media posts and AI-driven campaign creation (e.g., seasonal reminders) automate content creation and marketing efforts.
• AI Review Response: Automates authentic and consistent replies to customer feedback, streamlining reputation management.
• Thryv for Home Services Businesses: A specialized, AI-driven marketing solution introduced in November 2025, tailored to the unique needs of home services companies to boost online visibility and lead generation.
• Thryv Reporting Center: A new feature providing critical performance metrics for sales, appointments, marketing, and customer insights.
• Thryv Workforce Center: Expected to launch in H2 2025, this center aims to simplify employee management and payroll for SMBs.

The acquisition of Keap in late 2024 not only expanded Thryv's offerings but also strengthened its R&D capabilities by integrating additional product development and engineering teams, accelerating its innovation roadmap. The company notes a significant increase in AI adoption among small businesses, validating its AI-centric R&D strategy.

Patents:
Thryv, Inc. holds several patents that underpin its technological foundation, particularly in lead generation and marketing campaign management. These include patents related to:

• Systems for generating leads and facilitating real-time communications.
• Methods for providing information and services to authorized users.
• Sales lead qualification based on predefined rules.
• Systems for managing and integrating lead sources, including budget allocation, optimization, and a learning function for continuous improvement.
  While these patents establish a strong base, the latest AI-focused innovations are likely in the process of being patented or are protected by trade secrets.

Competitive Edge:
Thryv's competitive advantages stem from several key factors:

• AI-Driven SMB Specialization: Its deep focus on the SMB market, combined with robust AI integration, democratizes access to sophisticated tools that help small businesses compete with larger enterprises.
• All-in-One Integrated Platform: Offering a comprehensive suite of tools (CRM, marketing, scheduling, payments, website builder) within a single platform reduces complexity and cost for SMBs, providing a superior user experience compared to managing multiple disparate applications.
• Strategic Acquisitions: The Keap acquisition significantly expanded Thryv's customer base, product portfolio, and partner ecosystem, reinforcing its position in the SMB marketing automation space.
• Strong SaaS Metrics: Consistent year-over-year SaaS revenue growth (33% in Q3 2025), healthy gross margins (73% in Q3 2025), and a solid seasoned Net Revenue Retention (NRR) of 94% demonstrate strong customer value and retention.
• Tailored Vertical Solutions: Developing industry-specific offerings, such as "Thryv for Home Services," allows for highly relevant and effective solutions that drive adoption and revenue in key verticals.
• Managed Transition: The deliberate wind-down of its legacy business enables Thryv to reallocate resources and focus on its high-growth SaaS model, ensuring long-term sustainability.
• Industry Recognition: Thryv's platform has garnered recognition, including being named a Top 50 Marketing and Digital Advertising product by G2 in 2025, underscoring its market leadership and product quality.

8. Competitive Landscape

Thryv Holdings, Inc. (THRY) operates in a highly competitive and dynamic market, particularly as it transitions from a legacy marketing services provider to a dedicated Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) company for small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs). As of December 16, 2025, Thryv faces competition across various fronts, from broad business solutions to specialized marketing and CRM platforms.

Industry Rivals:
Thryv's diverse offerings mean it competes with a wide array of companies. Its rivals can be broadly categorized:

1. Direct SaaS Competitors (CRM, Marketing Automation, Business Management): These are companies offering similar all-in-one or specialized software solutions for SMBs. Key players include:

   • HubSpot: A major force in inbound marketing, sales, and customer service software.
   • Salesforce Essentials/Small Business Solutions: Offering CRM and sales tools tailored for smaller businesses.
   • Zoho: A suite of business applications, including CRM, marketing, and finance tools.
   • Vendasta AI Platform, Birdeye, Yext, Synup: Competitors in online presence management, reputation management, and local SEO.
   • ActiveCampaign, HighLevel, Keap (now part of Thryv but previously a strong competitor): Specialized in marketing and sales automation.
   • vCita, 17hats, Honeybook, Acuity Scheduling, Square Appointments: Platforms offering CRM, scheduling, invoicing, and payment processing, often tailored to specific service-based businesses.
   • Housecall Pro, Jobber: Industry-specific solutions for home services, directly competing with Thryv's verticalized offerings.
   • Monday.com, Bitrix24: Project management and collaboration tools with CRM functionalities.

2. Traditional Marketing and Advertising Services (Legacy Segment): While Thryv is exiting this space, it historically competed with:

   • Other Yellow Pages publishers (though most are in decline or have pivoted).
   • Local digital marketing agencies and consultants.
   • Large online advertising platforms like Google Ads and Meta (Facebook/Instagram Ads).

3. General Business Technology/Services: Broader tech companies that may offer overlapping services or target similar SMB segments, such as Radware, GoodRx, and i3 Verticals.

Market Share:
Direct market share figures for Thryv are not explicitly detailed, given the fragmented nature of the SMB software market and the ongoing business model transition. However, its scale and reach are indicated by:

• Client Base: Thryv serves over 350,000 local businesses globally across its combined offerings. As of Q3 2025, it had 103,000 SaaS clients, up 7% year-over-year.
• Revenue: Total revenue for the trailing twelve months ending September 30, 2025, was $779.99 million. SaaS revenue has been a strong growth driver, reaching $115.9 million in Q3 2025 and constituting 58% of total revenue.
• Growth Outlook: While overall revenue is projected to be slightly down in 2025 due to the legacy wind-down, the company anticipates a return to overall topline growth in fiscal year 2026 as the SaaS segment dominates.

Competitive Strengths:

• All-in-One Integrated Platform: Thryv’s comprehensive suite of tools (CRM, marketing, scheduling, payments, website builder) offers a significant advantage by simplifying operations for SMBs who prefer a single, integrated solution over managing multiple disparate applications.
• Successful SaaS Transformation: The company has demonstrated robust growth in its SaaS segment, proving its ability to adapt and capture market share in the software space. The acquisition of Keap further bolstered this position.
• AI-Powered Solutions: Thryv's aggressive integration of AI across its platform (e.g., AI Website Builder, AI Content Generator, AI Review Response) provides a cutting-edge advantage, helping SMBs automate tasks and compete more effectively.
• Customer-Centric Approach: A focus on customer service, support, and training fosters loyalty and retention among its established SMB client base.
• Improved Financial Health (SaaS Segment): The higher-margin SaaS business is contributing to improved gross margins and profitability, with the company actively reducing debt.

Competitive Weaknesses:

• Overall Revenue Decline: The planned wind-down of the Marketing Services segment continues to depress overall consolidated revenue, creating a negative perception despite SaaS growth.
• Net Losses and Profitability Challenges: While the SaaS segment is profitable, the company has reported net losses in recent periods, and the overall operating income has faced challenges during the transition.
• Intense Competition: The market for SMB software and marketing solutions is highly competitive, with numerous established players and specialized alternatives offering similar features.
• Stock Volatility: Thryv's stock price has experienced significant volatility, mirroring its financial fluctuations, with a notable drop from its 2022 high.
• SaaS Growth Deceleration Concerns: Some analysts express concerns about the deceleration of organic SaaS growth, which could impact future market perception and valuation.
• Acquisition Integration: Successfully integrating acquisitions like Keap and realizing expected synergies can be challenging and carries execution risk.

In essence, Thryv's competitive position is defined by its strong, integrated SaaS platform and its strategic focus on AI for SMBs, balanced against the ongoing challenge of managing a declining legacy business in a crowded market.

9. Industry and Market Trends

Thryv Holdings, Inc. (THRY) operates at the intersection of several powerful industry and market trends, primarily within the Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) and small-to-medium sized business (SMB) sectors. As of December 16, 2025, these trends, coupled with broader macroeconomic factors, significantly influence Thryv's strategic direction and financial performance.

Sector-Level Trends Impacting Thryv Holdings, Inc. (THRY):

• Accelerated AI Adoption by SMBs: Artificial intelligence is no longer exclusive to large enterprises. SMBs are rapidly adopting AI tools for various functions, including marketing, customer service, scheduling, and content generation. Thryv's proactive integration of AI into its platform, with features like AI Website Builder and AI Content Generator, directly aligns with this trend, positioning it as a key enabler for SMBs seeking efficiency and competitive advantage. The company's own data indicates a jump in AI usage among small businesses from 39% in 2024 to 55% in 2025.
• Demand for All-in-One Integrated Platforms: SMBs increasingly prefer comprehensive, integrated software solutions that consolidate multiple business functions (CRM, marketing, payments, scheduling) into a single platform. This reduces complexity and cost compared to managing disparate applications. Thryv's core value proposition as an "all-in-one" solution directly caters to this demand.
• Hyper-Personalization and Conversational Marketing: SMBs are leveraging customer data to deliver highly personalized experiences and are increasingly adopting conversational marketing (chatbots, direct messaging) for real-time customer engagement. Thryv's CRM and marketing automation tools facilitate these trends.
• Focus on Local SEO and Digital Presence: For many SMBs, local online visibility remains paramount. Thryv's offerings in online listings management and SEO directly support businesses in enhancing their digital footprint and attracting local customers.
• Shift to First-Party Data: With evolving privacy regulations and the deprecation of third-party cookies, SMBs are prioritizing the collection and management of first-party customer data. Thryv's platform, with its CRM capabilities, helps businesses effectively manage this critical asset.
• Growing Tech Spend by SMBs: Despite broader economic concerns, SMBs are projected to increase their technology budgets faster than overall costs and revenue in 2025 and 2026, driven by investments in AI, cybersecurity, and cloud infrastructure. This sustained demand for technology bodes well for Thryv's SaaS growth.

Macro Drivers Affecting Thryv Holdings, Inc. (THRY):

• Economic Uncertainty and Inflation: The global economic climate, marked by inflation and potential slowdowns, poses challenges for SMBs. Rising input costs and economic uncertainty can lead to cautious spending, but also drive demand for efficiency-generating software like Thryv's.
• High Interest Rates and Access to Capital: Elevated interest rates continue to impact SMBs' access to affordable capital, potentially affecting their investment in growth initiatives, including software subscriptions.
• Labor Market Dynamics: While Thryv's SaaS model is less labor-intensive than traditional services, the broader labor market impacts its ability to attract and retain skilled talent (developers, sales, support) and influences the operational costs for its SMB clients.
• Tariff Policies: Changing tariff policies create uncertainty and can raise costs for SMBs, potentially affecting their profitability and willingness to invest in new services.

Supply Chains Impacting Thryv Holdings, Inc. (THRY):

As a SaaS company, Thryv's direct exposure to physical supply chain disruptions is limited. However, it is indirectly affected:

• Internal "Supply Chain" (Talent & Infrastructure): Thryv relies on a "supply chain" of skilled human capital and robust cloud infrastructure (e.g., AWS). Economic conditions and labor market trends affect the availability and cost of this talent and essential services.
• Indirect Impact on SMB Clients: When Thryv's SMB clients face supply chain challenges (e.g., tariffs, material shortages), their business performance can suffer, potentially impacting their ability to subscribe to or expand their use of Thryv's services.
• Cybersecurity in the Supply Chain: The increasing risk of cyberattacks targeting software supply chains (dependencies, vendors) is a critical concern for all SaaS providers, including Thryv, necessitating strong cybersecurity measures.

Cyclical Effects on Thryv Holdings, Inc. (THRY):

• Resilience of SaaS in Downturns: While some discretionary spending by SMBs might be cut during economic downturns, the trend for 2025-2026 suggests SMBs are increasing tech budgets, viewing essential tools like AI and cloud infrastructure as necessary for efficiency and survival. This positions Thryv's offerings as a potentially resilient investment for SMBs.
• Business Model Transition: Thryv's strategic pivot to a recurring SaaS revenue model offers greater stability and predictability compared to its historically more cyclical traditional marketing services.
• SMB Spending Behavior: SMBs are focused on acquiring new customers and implementing efficient systems. Thryv's platform directly addresses these needs, suggesting sustained demand even in cautious economic environments.

In essence, Thryv is well-positioned to capitalize on the secular growth in SMB digitalization and AI adoption. However, it must skillfully navigate macroeconomic headwinds and the ongoing challenges of its business model transition to fully realize its potential.

10. Risks and Challenges

Thryv Holdings, Inc. (THRY) faces a complex array of risks and challenges as it navigates its transformative journey from a legacy marketing services provider to a pure-play Software as a Service (SaaS) company. As of December 16, 2025, these include operational, regulatory, and market-specific hurdles, alongside historical controversies.

Operational Risks:

• SaaS Transition and Client Churn: The primary operational risk is the successful migration of existing Marketing Services clients to the Thryv SaaS platform. There's a risk of higher churn if clients do not adopt the new platform, impacting revenue. While Thryv reported converting approximately 29,000 clients in Q2 2025, Marketing Services revenue still declined significantly (34.7% in Q2 2025). The planned exit from marketing services by 2028 creates a persistent revenue headwind.
• Overall Revenue Decline: The intentional wind-down of the Marketing Services segment has led to a decrease in consolidated total revenue (10.1% in FY 2024, 22% in Q1 2025, 6.1% in Q2 2025). Analysts project an average revenue decline of 2.9% per annum over the next two years, indicating that SaaS growth may not fully offset the legacy decline in the short term.
• Intense Competition: Thryv operates in a highly competitive market for both its legacy and SaaS offerings. Rivals can hinder its ability to attract new clients, retain existing ones, and expand market share.
• AI Risks: The increasing integration of AI introduces risks such as potential cybersecurity vulnerabilities, the need to adapt to evolving AI regulations, and ethical concerns related to AI usage.
• Service Quality and Platform Performance: The failure to provide high-quality technical support or ensure the Thryv platform and its add-ons perform properly could lead to customer dissatisfaction and churn.
• Cybersecurity Incidents: As a SaaS provider handling sensitive customer data, Thryv is an attractive target for cyberattacks, data breaches, and service disruptions, which could harm its reputation and incur significant costs.

Regulatory Risks:

• Evolving AI Regulation: The regulatory landscape for AI is rapidly developing globally (e.g., EU AI Act, U.S. AI Executive Order). Compliance with new, potentially divergent regulations could increase costs and liabilities.
• SEC Investigation: Thryv has faced costs and reputational harm from regulatory investigations, including a subpoena from the SEC's Division of Enforcement.
• Labor Negotiations: The potential impact of future labor negotiations poses a regulatory risk.
• Data Privacy and Cybersecurity Laws: An increasingly fragmented and stringent global regulatory environment for data privacy (e.g., CCPA, CPRA, new state laws in 2025) and cybersecurity requires continuous adaptation and investment in compliance.
• General Regulatory Divergence: The rapid pace and volume of regulatory changes across various jurisdictions create complexity and increase compliance challenges for globally operating businesses.

Controversies:

• NLRB Dispute: Thryv, Inc. has been involved in a notable dispute with a union, leading to a National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) framework regarding remedies for unfair labor practices. While the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals disagreed with the NLRB's conclusion on layoffs in a 2024 case, the legal complexities and differing judicial interpretations of the "Thryv Framework" persist as of November 2025. This indicates ongoing legal scrutiny and potential liabilities related to labor relations.

Market Risks:

• Revenue Decline from Marketing Services: As noted, the planned decline of the legacy business directly impacts overall revenue and investor perception.
• Macroeconomic Headwinds: Economic slowdowns, inflation, high interest rates, and geopolitical instability (e.g., US-China tensions, global conflicts) can adversely affect SMBs, leading to reduced spending on software and marketing services.
• Stock Market Volatility: THRY's stock is susceptible to broader market volatility, and recent performance shows significant declines despite operational improvements, reflecting investor uncertainty.
• Probability of Distress: One analysis in 2025 indicated an over 60% risk of distress for Thryv Holdings, suggesting an above-average likelihood of financial hardship within two years, placing it higher than industry averages.
• ARPU vs. Client Acquisition Focus: While ARPU has increased, historical growth has been driven more by upselling existing customers than by increasing total customer count. Management's stated shift back to increasing customer count in 2026 implies a potential market dissatisfaction with the previous growth model.

In conclusion, Thryv's path forward is fraught with challenges, primarily stemming from its complex business transformation and the external economic and regulatory environment. Successful navigation will require adept management of its declining legacy business, sustained SaaS growth, effective integration of AI, and robust risk management strategies.

11. Opportunities and Catalysts

Thryv Holdings, Inc. (THRY) is strategically positioned to capitalize on several significant opportunities and catalysts as it continues its transformation into a leading SaaS provider for small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs). As of December 16, 2025, the company's focus on its SaaS platform, AI integration, and disciplined financial management underpins its growth potential.

Growth Levers:

• Robust SaaS Revenue Growth: Thryv's SaaS segment is its primary growth engine, demonstrating a 33% year-over-year increase in Q3 2025 revenue to $115.9 million. This strong performance, even with 14% organic growth (excluding Keap), underscores the demand for its software solutions. The full-year 2025 SaaS revenue is projected to be between $460 million and $463 million, indicating sustained momentum.
• Increased Customer Spend (ARPU) and Multi-Product Adoption: A key growth lever is the ability to deepen relationships with existing customers and increase their Average Revenue Per Unit (ARPU). SaaS monthly ARPU expanded 19% year-over-year to $365 in Q3 2025. Multi-product adoption is accelerating, with 20% of the customer base now using two or more Thryv products, driving higher Net Revenue Retention (NRR) rates (94% seasoned NRR as of Q3 2025).
• AI-Powered Solutions and Innovation: Thryv's aggressive investment in Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a significant catalyst. The company is embedding AI across its platform to simplify operations, automate marketing campaigns, and enhance customer engagement. Recent launches like the AI-enabled marketing software for home services businesses (November 2025) and upcoming features like the Thryv Workforce Center (H2 2025) demonstrate a commitment to innovation that drives value for SMBs.
• Vertical Expansion and Targeted Solutions: Thryv is strategically expanding into specific industry verticals, such as home services and HVAC. Developing tailored AI-driven solutions for these sectors allows the company to address unique industry needs, improve product-market fit, and capture specialized market share.
• Transition to Pure-Play SaaS: While the wind-down of the legacy Marketing Services business creates short-term revenue headwinds, its complete exit by 2028 is a long-term catalyst. This transition will allow Thryv to fully focus resources on its higher-margin SaaS business, leading to overall topline revenue growth returning in fiscal year 2026 and improved profitability.

New Markets:

While Thryv is already a global provider, its "new market" strategy is more focused on deepening penetration within existing geographical markets through vertical expansion. The successful launch of specialized solutions for home services businesses exemplifies this approach, targeting a significant and growing vertical within its current operating regions. The acquisition of Keap also expanded its market penetration in North America and key international markets like Europe and Australia, leveraging existing partner channels.

M&A Potential:

Thryv's improving financial health positions it for potential future M&A activities.

• Debt Reduction: Net debt has decreased to $265 million (1.9x leverage) in Q3 2025.
• Free Cash Flow Generation: The company generated $14.6 million in free cash flow in Q3 2025, with year-to-date free cash flow at $18.8 million.
• Reduced Interest Expenses: Accelerated debt amortization payments are expected to lower quarterly interest expenses, further boosting free cash flow.
  This increased financial flexibility could enable Thryv to pursue strategic acquisitions that complement its SaaS offerings, expand its customer base, or enhance its technological capabilities in key verticals.

Near-Term Events (as of 12/16/2025):

• Upcoming Earnings Report: Thryv Holdings Inc. is scheduled to release its next earnings report for Q4 and full-year 2025 on February 25 or 26, 2026. This report will provide crucial updates on SaaS revenue growth, profitability, and updated guidance for 2026.
• Recent Product Launches:
  • AI-Enabled Marketing Software for Home Services: Launched in November 2025, this solution leverages AI for online visibility, lead conversion, and repeat business for a key vertical.
  • Thryv Workforce Center: Launched in July 2025, this offering helps SMBs manage payroll.
• Conferences and Investor Engagement: Thryv actively participates in investor conferences (e.g., Needham Growth Conference in January 2025) and hosts its own events (e.g., "Grow 2025" in October 2025) to showcase its AI-driven platform and growth strategy, aiming to build investor confidence.

These opportunities and catalysts, particularly the sustained SaaS growth, strategic AI integration, and improving financial metrics, position Thryv for significant long-term value creation, provided it continues to execute effectively on its strategic pivots.

12. Investor Sentiment and Analyst Coverage

Investor sentiment and analyst coverage for Thryv Holdings, Inc. (THRY) as of mid-December 2025 present a mixed, yet generally cautiously optimistic picture, with notable insider confidence contrasting with recent stock performance.

Wall Street Ratings:
Analyst consensus for THRY varies, but generally leans towards "Hold" or "Buy":

• Consensus: MarketBeat reports an average "Hold" from seven firms, with two "Sell," three "Hold," and two "Buy" ratings as of December 5, 2025. The average 12-month price target is $13.00.
• Other Views: Stock Analysis indicates a "Buy" consensus from three analysts with an average price target of $14.00 (October 31, 2025), implying a significant upside. Benzinga notes a consensus price target of $17.40 from six analysts. Zacks Investment Research provides an average brokerage recommendation of 2.83 ("Hold").
• Recent Actions (Q4 2025): There have been both downgrades and affirmations. William Blair and Craig Hallum downgraded THRY to "Hold" in November and October 2025, respectively, with RBC Capital maintaining a "Hold" but lowering its price target. Conversely, Wall Street Zen upgraded Thryv to "Buy" in November 2025, and B. Riley Securities and Needham maintained "Strong Buy" ratings, albeit with adjusted (lower) price targets.
• Divergent Views: While many analysts see long-term potential, some technical analyses, like StockInvest.us, label THRY a "Sell Candidate" due to negative signals and a falling trend, predicting short-term declines.

The divergence in ratings and price targets highlights the complexity of evaluating a company undergoing a significant business model transition. Analysts often view the stock as undervalued, trading at approximately 0.5x SaaS revenues, which they consider "much too cheap for a profitable SaaS segment."

Hedge Fund Moves and Institutional Investors:
Specific Q4 2025 13F filings from hedge funds are not yet publicly available due to reporting lags. However, earlier activity and general institutional trends offer some insight:

• BlackRock, Inc.: Acquired a substantial number of THRY shares around December 31, 2024, at $14.80 per share, indicating institutional interest and confidence at that time.
• Insider Activity: Insider sentiment is notably positive. CEO Joe Walsh recently purchased 25,000 shares at $6.51, increasing his stake. Over the past year, 11 insiders collectively bought or received $12.6 million worth of shares, significantly outweighing sales. This strong insider buying suggests internal confidence in the company's future trajectory.
• General Institutional Trends (2025): Institutional investors are increasingly allocating to ETFs in 2025, driven by factors like anticipated interest rate cuts and liquidity needs. While this doesn't provide specific THRY ownership data for the current quarter, it reflects broader shifts in institutional investment strategies.

Retail Chatter:
Direct, specific retail chatter regarding Thryv Holdings, Inc. (THRY) as of December 16, 2025, is not prominently detailed in the provided search results. While platforms like Reddit and Stocktwits are common venues for retail investor discussions, the available information for this period largely covers general market sentiment or other stocks. Thryv's experts discussing AI trends for small businesses in December 2025, with social sharing options for Reddit and Facebook, suggests the company aims to engage with these platforms, but the content of specific retail discussions about THRY is not provided.

In summary, Wall Street maintains a cautious but generally optimistic stance, with price targets implying significant upside. Insider buying provides a strong signal of confidence. While detailed hedge fund and institutional ownership for Q4 2025 is pending, and explicit retail chatter for THRY in December 2025 remains elusive in the provided search results.

13. Regulatory, Policy, and Geopolitical Factors

Thryv Holdings, Inc. (THRY), as a global SaaS provider for small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs), operates within an increasingly complex web of regulatory, policy, and geopolitical factors. As of December 16, 2025, the company's strategic pivot to SaaS and its integration of AI place it at the forefront of evolving legal and compliance considerations.

Laws and Compliance:

• Data Privacy and Security: Thryv prioritizes robust data privacy and security, which is critical for its CRM and marketing automation platform.
  • HIPAA Compliance: Through its "Thryv Secure" add-on and Business Associate Agreement (BAA), Thryv ensures compliance with HIPAA requirements for safeguarding Protected Health Information (PHI).
  • US State Data Protection Laws: The company adheres to a growing number of U.S. state data protection laws, including CCPA, CPRA (California), CDPA (Virginia), CPA (Colorado), and similar acts in Connecticut and Utah. The landscape is further fragmented by new privacy laws taking effect in several states in 2025 (e.g., Delaware, Iowa, New Jersey). Thryv's privacy policy, updated October 1, 2025, outlines its practices.
  • Cybersecurity Measures: Thryv employs strong security infrastructure, including 2048-bit data encryption, TLS 1.0+, DDoS protection, AWS, WAFs, and a dedicated security team, alongside regular audits and penetration testing.
• Insider Trading Policy: An Amended and Restated Insider Trading Policy, last amended February 26, 2025, prevents illegal insider trading by its personnel.
• Marketing and SaaS Platform Regulations: Thryv's operations are subject to consumer protection laws, regulations against deceptive advertising, and rules governing unsolicited communications (e.g., CAN-SPAM Act, TCPA in the U.S.). The regulatory environment for digital marketing and AI-powered solutions is rapidly evolving, demanding continuous vigilance.
• AI Regulation: The increasing integration of AI into Thryv's platform introduces new regulatory considerations. While a 2025 U.S. AI Executive Order aims to streamline innovation by centralizing AI governance, global efforts like the EU AI Act could increase compliance costs and liabilities, requiring Thryv to ensure fairness, transparency, and accountability in its AI usage.

Government Incentives:

While no direct government incentives for Thryv were identified, the company and its SMB clientele can indirectly benefit from broader government support:

• Small Business Administration (SBA) Programs: SBA offers business development assistance and loan programs, which can strengthen Thryv's customer base by fostering SMB growth.
• Research and Development (R&D) Assistance: Federal grants like SBIR and STTR programs could be relevant for Thryv's ongoing innovation in AI and platform enhancements.
• Economic Stimulus/Support for Small Businesses: Government initiatives to bolster economic stability and foster SMB growth, as indicated by Thryv's own Small Business Index showing an upswing in SMB economic outlook for 2025, could indirectly increase the addressable market's purchasing power for Thryv's solutions.

Geopolitical Risks and Opportunities:

The global geopolitical landscape presents both risks and opportunities for Thryv:

Geopolitical Risks:

• Cyberattacks and Cybersecurity Warfare: As a SaaS provider, Thryv faces a heightened risk of cyberattacks driven by geopolitical tensions, which could lead to data breaches, service disruptions, and reputational damage.
• Supply Chain Disruptions: While primarily a software company, disruptions to its third-party vendors, cloud infrastructure providers, or global talent acquisition could indirectly impact operations.
• Fragmented Regulatory Environment: Geopolitical shifts can lead to a more complex and divergent global regulatory and tax environment, increasing compliance challenges for international operations.
• Economic Instability and Inflation: Geopolitical conflicts (e.g., Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Hamas) can fuel instability, affecting global economic growth, energy prices, and inflation, which could impact SMB spending on software.
• US-China Tensions: These tensions can influence trade policies and technology sourcing, potentially affecting Thryv's operational environment.

Geopolitical Opportunities:

• Increased Demand for Digital Solutions in Volatile World: In an unpredictable global environment, SMBs increasingly rely on technology to navigate uncertainty and drive efficiency. Thryv's AI-supported platform directly addresses this need, positioning it as a valuable partner.
• AI-Driven Growth and Efficiency: The accelerating adoption of AI by SMBs, driven by the need for productivity and cost savings, presents a substantial opportunity for Thryv to enhance its AI features and attract more subscribers.
• International Market Expansion: Thryv's existing global presence (Australia, New Zealand) and enhanced capabilities through acquisitions like Keap offer opportunities for further international growth and market penetration.
• Focus on Small Business Empowerment: Thryv's mission aligns with broader governmental and societal efforts to support SMBs, potentially positioning it favorably for future initiatives aimed at strengthening local economies.

In conclusion, Thryv is navigating a complex regulatory landscape with a strong focus on data privacy and cybersecurity. While geopolitical tensions pose risks, the global push for digitalization and AI adoption by SMBs presents significant opportunities for Thryv to expand its market leadership and enhance its value proposition.

14. Outlook and Scenarios

Thryv Holdings, Inc. (THRY) is in a critical phase of its business transformation, with its outlook heavily dependent on the successful execution of its pivot to a pure Software as a Service (SaaS) model. As of December 16, 2025, both bullish and bearish scenarios present compelling arguments for its short-term performance and long-term trajectory.

Bull vs. Bear Case

Bull Case

The optimistic outlook for Thryv centers on its successful SaaS transformation and inherent strengths:

• Robust SaaS Growth & Profitability: Thryv's SaaS revenue is growing impressively, up 33% year-over-year in Q3 2025, with organic growth at 14%. SaaS adjusted gross margin improved to 73%, and SaaS adjusted EBITDA nearly doubled. This segment is on track for $460-$463 million in revenue and $73-$75 million in adjusted EBITDA for FY 2025, with medium-term targets of 80% gross margin and 20% EBITDA margin.
• Increasing Customer Value: Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) expanded 19% year-over-year in Q3 2025, and multi-product adoption is accelerating, with 20% of clients using two or more SaaS products. The seasoned Net Revenue Retention (NRR) of 94% indicates strong customer loyalty and expanded spending.
• Strategic AI Integration: Thryv's aggressive adoption of AI, including new AI-enabled marketing software for home services, positions it to offer cutting-edge tools that save SMBs time and enhance competitiveness.
• Improved Financial Health: The company is actively reducing debt (net debt fell to $265 million, 1.9x leverage in Q3 2025) and generating free cash flow, strengthening its balance sheet and providing capital allocation flexibility.
• Undervaluation: Some analysts believe THRY is undervalued, trading at approximately 0.5x SaaS revenues, which they consider "much too cheap for a profitable SaaS segment." Management's long-term target of $1 billion in annual SaaS revenue by 2030 suggests significant upside potential.

Bear Case

The pessimistic view highlights the challenges and risks inherent in Thryv's transition:

• Declining Legacy Business Drag: The Marketing Services segment continues its planned decline (8% decrease in Q3 2025), creating a significant drag on overall consolidated revenue and operating income. While intentional, this shrinking, higher-margin segment could pressure overall company margins.
• SaaS Growth Deceleration Concerns: While SaaS growth is strong, some analysts project a deceleration of organic growth to single digits in fiscal year 2026 before stabilizing. Questions persist about the company's ability to significantly increase total customer count versus primarily upselling existing clients.
• Financial Volatility & Missed Estimates: Thryv missed Q3 2025 EPS estimates by a substantial margin, and overall financial results can be complex due to the legacy business decline. The company has also experienced widening net profit margin losses over the past five years.
• Intense Competition & Execution Risk: The SMB software market is highly competitive. Challenges in integrating acquisitions like Keap and optimizing growth amidst fierce competition could hinder profitability.
• Macroeconomic Headwinds: A potential economic downturn could disproportionately affect SMBs, impacting their willingness to invest in software and accelerating the decline of the legacy business.
• Analyst Downgrades: Recent analyst downgrades reflect concerns about execution and overly optimistic expectations for certain business segments.

Short-Term vs. Long-Term Projections

Short-Term Projections (through 2026)

• SaaS Growth Continues: Full-year 2025 SaaS revenue is projected between $460-$463 million, with Q4 2025 SaaS revenue at $118-$121 million.
• Marketing Services Decline: The legacy segment will continue its planned wind-down, with full-year 2025 revenue projected at $323-$325 million.
• Overall Revenue Pressure: Total consolidated revenue for FY 2025 is expected to be slightly down compared to FY 2024, with analysts forecasting an overall decline of 13.6% per annum over the next three years.
• Profitability Shift: SaaS EBITDA is expected to become the majority of Consolidated EBITDA in 2026.
• Analyst Price Targets: Average 12-month price targets range from $13.00 to $14.00, suggesting a significant short-term upside from current levels (around $5.89).
• Customer Acquisition Shift: Management plans to shift focus in 2026 from primarily upselling existing customers to increasing total customer count.

Long-Term Projections (2027 and beyond)

• SaaS Dominance & Revenue Growth: Thryv is expected to achieve majority SaaS revenue in 2025, with total revenue and EBITDA projected to resume growth in 2027 and beyond as the SaaS business fully overshadows the legacy decline.
• Ambitious SaaS Target: Management aims for $1 billion in annual SaaS revenue by the end of FY 2030.
• Debt-Free Potential: The wind-down of the Marketing Services division is expected to generate $250-$300 million in unlevered free cash flow from 2025-2030, potentially leading to a debt-free company by 2027 if debt reduction continues.
• Strong Earnings Growth: Annual earnings are expected to grow at 32.6% per year, and EPS by 27.7% per annum.
• AI-Driven Expansion: Continued AI integration and expansion into new verticals are expected to drive sustained long-term growth and profitability.
• Long-Term Price Appreciation: Some analyses project THRY stock to reach an average of $19.40 by 2030, $35.41 by 2040, and around $20.12 by 2050, reflecting significant long-term upside potential.

Strategic Pivots for Thryv Holdings, Inc. (THRY)

Thryv's strategic pivots are firmly focused on completing its transformation into a leading SaaS provider:

1. Accelerated SaaS Transition & Marketing Services Exit: The core strategy is the aggressive migration of clients to the SaaS platform and the complete wind-down of the legacy Marketing Services by 2028, aiming for improved margins and predictable earnings.
2. AI-Enhanced All-in-One Platform: Continuous expansion of its integrated SaaS suite with advanced AI features for marketing, sales, and operations (e.g., AI Website Builder, Thryv Workforce Center) to help SMBs save time and compete.
3. Balanced Customer Growth Strategy: While successfully focusing on ARPU growth and multi-product adoption, management's pivot back to increasing total customer count in 2026 signals a broader growth ambition.
4. Deleveraging & Capital Allocation: Prioritizing debt reduction using free cash flow to strengthen the balance sheet and provide flexibility for future growth investments or share buybacks.
5. International Expansion & Partner Channels: Leveraging acquisitions like Keap to enhance market penetration in North America and key international markets through a robust partner channel.
6. Investor Credibility: Actively engaging with investors to communicate its transformation story and build confidence in its AI-driven growth trajectory.

In summary, Thryv is at an inflection point. The short-term will be characterized by the ongoing complexities of its transition and scrutiny over growth rates. However, the long-term outlook paints a picture of a profitable, AI-powered SaaS leader if the company successfully executes its strategic pivots and achieves its ambitious targets.

15. Conclusion

Thryv Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: THRY) is a company undergoing a profound metamorphosis, shedding its century-old identity as a traditional print directory and marketing services provider to embrace a future as a Software as a Service (SaaS) powerhouse for small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs). As of December 16, 2025, this strategic pivot defines its current relevance and investment thesis.

Summary of Key Findings:
Thryv's core strength lies in its rapidly growing SaaS segment, which saw a 33% year-over-year revenue increase in Q3 2025, now constituting 58% of total revenue. This growth is fueled by increasing subscriber numbers (103,000 SaaS clients) and expanding Average Revenue Per Unit (ARPU) of $365, alongside accelerating multi-product adoption. The company's all-in-one Thryv platform, enhanced by the late 2024 acquisition of Keap and aggressive AI integration, offers SMBs a comprehensive suite of tools for CRM, marketing automation, online presence, and payment processing. Financially, Thryv is showing signs of improved profitability within its SaaS segment and has made strides in debt reduction, generating positive free cash flow. However, the planned wind-down of its legacy Marketing Services division, though strategic, continues to exert downward pressure on overall consolidated revenue. Investor sentiment is mixed, with analyst price targets suggesting significant upside, yet the stock has experienced considerable volatility and decline over the past year, reflecting market skepticism about the pace and execution of its transformation.

Balanced Perspective:
The bullish case for Thryv is compelling, anchored in the strong organic growth and improving profitability of its SaaS business, its strategic focus on AI-driven innovation, and a disciplined approach to debt reduction. The company is tapping into the vast and growing market of SMBs eager for digital transformation, offering an integrated platform that simplifies complex operations. Insider buying further signals confidence in the long-term vision.

Conversely, the bearish perspective highlights critical challenges. The persistent decline of the legacy Marketing Services segment continues to obscure overall top-line growth and creates execution risk during the transition. Concerns about the potential deceleration of organic SaaS growth, intense competition in the SMB software market, and past instances of missed earnings estimates contribute to investor caution. The stock's recent volatility underscores the market's demand for consistent execution and clear evidence of sustained, profitable growth.

What Investors Should Watch:
For investors considering Thryv Holdings, Inc. (THRY) as of December 16, 2025, several key indicators warrant close attention:

1. SaaS Revenue Growth and Profitability: This is paramount. Monitor organic SaaS revenue growth rates (excluding acquisitions like Keap) and the expansion of SaaS adjusted gross margins and EBITDA. Consistent, strong performance here is crucial.
2. Marketing Services Wind-down Management: Track the controlled decline of the legacy business. Ensure it aligns with the company's projections for cash flow generation through 2030 and its planned exit by 2028, without unduly impacting the overall financial health.
3. Customer Metrics: Pay close attention to SaaS subscriber growth, ARPU expansion, Net Revenue Retention (NRR), and the rate of multi-product adoption. These metrics are vital for assessing customer satisfaction, stickiness, and monetization potential.
4. Execution of AI and Vertical Strategies: Evaluate the success of new AI-enabled product launches (e.g., for home services) and the company's ability to effectively penetrate and grow within targeted industry verticals.
5. Debt Reduction and Free Cash Flow: Continued progress in deleveraging the balance sheet and generating robust free cash flow will provide financial flexibility and resilience.
6. Upcoming Earnings Reports: The next earnings report for Q4 and full-year 2025, scheduled for February 25 or 26, 2026, will be a critical event, offering updated financial performance and revised guidance for 2026.
7. Analyst Revisions and Price Targets: While not definitive, changes in analyst ratings, price targets, and their underlying rationales can offer insights into market sentiment and perceived future performance. Note the divergence between current stock price and analyst price targets.

Thryv's journey is a compelling testament to corporate adaptability. Its success hinges on its ability to fully realize the promise of its SaaS transformation, leveraging AI and a customer-centric approach to become an indispensable partner for SMBs. Investors must weigh the undeniable growth potential of its SaaS segment against the complexities of managing a declining legacy business and the inherent risks of a competitive and evolving market.

This content is intended for informational purposes only and is not financial advice