What Happened?
Shares of financial technology company PROG Holdings (NYSE: PRG) fell 5.7% in the afternoon session after the company reported third-quarter results and issued a full-year revenue forecast that fell short of analyst estimates, citing the sale of its Vive Financial portfolio and a challenging consumer environment.
Although the company's third-quarter revenue and profit beat expectations, sales still fell by 1.8% compared to the previous year. More importantly, the full-year revenue guidance of $2.42 billion at the midpoint came in 2.1% below analysts' forecasts. Management noted the revised outlook was influenced by a difficult operating environment, soft demand for consumer durable goods, and persistent consumer challenges. These challenges included ongoing inflationary pressures and growing financial stress among lower-income households. Adding to concerns, analysts also expected the company's profit margin to shrink over the next three years.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
PROG’s shares are somewhat volatile and have had 12 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The biggest move we wrote about over the last year was 2 months ago when the stock gained 6.3% on the news that the major indices rebounded, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered dovish remarks at the much-awaited Jackson Hole symposium. Powell suggested that with inflation risks moderating and unemployment remaining low, the Federal Reserve might consider a shift in its monetary policy stance, including potential interest rate cuts. This outlook eased market concerns about prolonged high interest rates and their impact on economic growth. The prospect of lower borrowing costs bolstered investor confidence, particularly in sectors that have lagged, leading to a broad rally across the market.
PROG is down 26.2% since the beginning of the year, and at $31.21 per share, it is trading 37.1% below its 52-week high of $49.65 from November 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of PROG’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $534.60.
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