Mumbai, India – October 17, 2025 – The auspicious Hindu festival of Dhanteras, traditionally a period of fervent gold and silver jewelry purchases, has in recent years witnessed a significant and telling shift in consumer behavior. In 2023 and even more profoundly in 2024, buyers increasingly opted for gold and silver coins and bars over elaborate jewelry. This strategic pivot, driven by record-high precious metal prices and a growing investment-centric mindset, signals a maturing Indian precious metals market where tangible investment value is taking precedence over ornamental appeal.

The immediate implication of this trend is a re-evaluation of strategies for traditional jewelry retailers and a boon for bullion dealers. As gold continues its upward trajectory, consumers are prioritizing the intrinsic value and liquidity of investment-grade bullion, reflecting a sophisticated understanding of precious metals as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty.

A Golden Shift: Unpacking the Dhanteras Demand Dynamics

The Dhanteras festivals of 2023 and 2024 provided a clear snapshot of evolving consumer preferences. In 2023, despite a 21% surge in gold prices from the previous year, overall gold consumption during Dhanteras exceeded 40 tonnes across India. Crucially, gold in the form of coins and bars accounted for approximately 30% of total sales, a substantial portion that hinted at the changing tide. The total turnover for precious metals and other items reached an estimated ₹30,000 crore, underscoring the enduring cultural significance of the festival.

However, Dhanteras 2024 marked an even more pronounced transformation. Gold sales volumes were anticipated to decline by 15-16% year-on-year, from 30-35 tonnes to 25-30 tonnes, primarily due to the sharp increase in prices. Despite this volume dip, the value of gold sales was expected to remain stable, potentially reaching ₹20,000-23,500 crore, a testament to the elevated price points. Notably, silver emerged as a strong contender, with sales rising by an impressive 30-35% in volume, even as its prices climbed 40% higher than the previous Dhanteras. For the first time, reports suggested that silver sales volume surpassed gold sales during the 2024 festive season, highlighting its growing appeal as an accessible investment.

This shift towards bullion is underpinned by several key factors:

• Record High Prices: Gold prices have been on an upward march. On Dhanteras 2023, gold hit an all-time high of approximately ₹60,579 per 10 grams. By Dhanteras 2024 (October 29), 24k gold futures on MCX reached around ₹78,804 per 10 grams, a staggering 30% gain year-on-year. Such elevated prices make heavy, traditional jewelry prohibitively expensive for many, pushing them towards more affordable "shagun coins" or smaller investment units.
• Investment-Driven Mindset: Consumers are increasingly viewing gold and silver as strategic investments and a store of value, particularly amidst global economic uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and persistent inflation. Bullion, with its higher purity (often 24K, 999.9+) and greater liquidity, is preferred for investment, offering direct exposure to price appreciation without the added making charges and VAT associated with jewelry.
• Practicality and Purity: Coins and bars are easier to store and transport, appealing to investors seeking unadulterated precious metal. The demand for LBMA-accredited refiners' products underscores a focus on purity and international standards.
• Silver's Resurgence: With gold at unprecedented levels, silver has become a more attractive and cost-effective investment. Its strong rally, fueled by increasing industrial demand from sectors like solar energy and electric vehicles, has cemented its position as a viable alternative.
• Digital Avenues: The rise of digital gold platforms and systematic investment plans (SIPs) for gold and silver, alongside Gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and Sovereign Gold Bonds (SGBs), further facilitates investment-driven purchases, moving away from physical adornment.

Corporate Fortunes: Winners and Losers in the Bullion Boom

This pronounced shift in consumer preference has significant implications for public companies operating within the precious metals sector.

Traditional jewelry retailers, such as Titan Company (NSE: TITAN), Rajesh Exports (NSE: RAJESHEXPO), and PC Jeweller (NSE: PCJEWELLER), face a nuanced challenge. While the overall value of sales might be maintained due to higher gold prices, the decline in volume of traditional jewelry sales could impact their manufacturing and inventory management. These companies are compelled to adapt by promoting lighter-weight designs, lower karatage gold (18-karat or even 9-karat), and increasing their focus on studded and diamond jewelry, where artistry and gemstone value can offset the gold's weight. They are also likely to intensify promotional schemes and discounts to attract customers to their jewelry offerings.

Conversely, dedicated bullion dealers and refiners stand to gain significantly. Companies involved in the minting and distribution of gold and silver coins and bars are experiencing a surge in demand. This trend also indirectly benefits gold and silver mining companies globally, such as Barrick Gold (NYSE: GOLD) and Newmont (NYSE: NEM), as sustained high demand and prices for raw materials boost their revenue and profitability. The increased investment in physical bullion also supports the infrastructure for secure storage and trading of these assets.

Wider Significance: A Paradigm Shift in Precious Metals

The Dhanteras phenomenon is not an isolated event but rather a microcosm of broader industry trends. It signifies a paradigm shift where the investment aspect of precious metals is increasingly overshadowing their traditional role as cultural adornment. This trend fits into a global narrative of heightened interest in safe-haven assets amidst persistent economic and geopolitical uncertainties.

The ripple effects are considerable. For instance, the increased demand for bullion could impact gold and silver import patterns, potentially influencing government policies. In July 2024, the Indian government's reduction of import duty on gold and silver from 15% to 6% was a significant move, aimed at curbing smuggling and stabilizing domestic prices, further influencing market dynamics. This policy change, combined with consumer preference for bullion, could lead to more organized and transparent trade in investment-grade metals.

Historically, periods of high inflation or economic instability have often seen a flight to gold. The current situation echoes these precedents, but with a crucial distinction: the digital age and increased financial literacy have empowered consumers to make more informed, investment-driven choices, rather than purely traditional ones. This marks a maturing of the Indian precious metals market, aligning it more closely with global investment trends.

What Comes Next: Navigating a Bullish Future

Looking ahead, the short-term and long-term outlook for gold and silver remains predominantly bullish. Analysts predict that gold prices could potentially reach ₹87,000 per 10 grams by Dhanteras 2025 and continue their ascent into 2026. Silver's long-term prospects also appear robust, driven by its dual role as a monetary metal and a critical industrial commodity, especially in green technologies.

Jewelry retailers will need to strategically pivot, potentially diversifying their offerings further into diamond and gemstone jewelry, or embracing the "lightweight" and "minimalist" gold jewelry segments that appeal to younger, budget-conscious consumers. The growth of digital gold platforms and financial instruments like Gold ETFs and SGBs will continue to offer alternative investment avenues, challenging traditional physical retail models.

Market opportunities will emerge for innovators in precious metal financial products, secure storage solutions, and authenticated bullion distribution. The challenge will be for traditional players to adapt quickly to these evolving consumer preferences and technological advancements. Potential scenarios include a further consolidation of the bullion market, increased competition in digital gold offerings, and a continuous push by jewelers to redefine the role of gold jewelry in a high-price environment.

Wrap-Up: The Enduring Luster of Investment

The Dhanteras trend of "bullion over bling" serves as a powerful summary of key shifts in the precious metals market. It underscores the growing financial savviness of consumers, the undeniable impact of high prices, and the enduring appeal of gold and silver as investment assets. The market is moving forward with a stronger emphasis on value, purity, and liquidity.

Moving forward, investors should closely watch global economic indicators, central bank policies, and geopolitical developments, all of which will continue to influence gold and silver prices. The strategic adaptations of major jewelry retailers, the growth of digital precious metal platforms, and the government's stance on import duties will also be critical factors to monitor in the coming months. The lustre of precious metals remains, but its form is undeniably evolving.

This content is intended for informational purposes only and is not financial advice