What Happened?

Shares of athletic apparel retailer Lululemon (NASDAQ: LULU) jumped 2.8% in the afternoon session after comments from a key Federal Reserve official boosted investor optimism for a potential interest rate cut. New York Federal Reserve President John Williams, a voting member of the rate-setting committee, suggested he sees room for "further policy easing," which sent a strong signal to the markets. Following his remarks, the probability of a December rate cut, as measured by the CME FedWatch Tool, surged from 39% to 71%. Lower interest rates can stimulate the economy by making borrowing cheaper for both consumers and businesses, which often translates to increased consumer spending. This prospect is outweighing recent reports of lower consumer confidence, as investors bet that a more accommodative Fed policy will support retailers through the holiday season.

The shares closed the day at $167.75, down 0.1% from previous close.

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What Is The Market Telling Us

Lululemon’s shares are somewhat volatile and have had 13 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.

The previous big move we wrote about was 18 days ago when the stock dropped 3.3% on the news that a challenging demand picture and concerns over the company's earnings outlook became more pronounced. The athletic apparel maker's stock had already been in a deep bearish trend, falling more than 50% over the previous year. This decline was driven by quarterly results that revealed slowing growth. The company saw a major slowdown in North America, its largest market. At the same time, higher tariff rates compressed the company's profit margins, and competition rose in the athleisure market. These factors contributed to a difficult picture for the company's shares.

Lululemon is down 54.8% since the beginning of the year, and at $168.11 per share, it is trading 60.1% below its 52-week high of $421.16 from January 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Lululemon’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $482.34.

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