March arabica coffee (KCH26) on Monday closed up +1.00 (+0.30%), and March ICE robusta coffee (RMH26) closed down -84 (-2.04%).
Coffee prices settled mixed on Monday, with robusta falling to a 4-week low. Above-average rainfall in Brazil is positive for coffee yields but negative for prices. Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that Brazil's largest arabica coffee-growing area, Minas Gerais, received 69.8 mm of rain during the week ended January 30, or 117% of the historical average.
Some mild technical short covering lifted arabica coffee into positive territory on Monday after prices failed take out last Friday's 5.5-month nearest-futures low. Coffee prices have been under pressure over the past week amid forecasts of steady rains in Minas Gerais, Brazil's main coffee-growing region.
The outlook for ample coffee supplies is a bearish factor for prices. On December 4, Conab, Brazil's crop forecasting agency, raised its total Brazil 2025 coffee production estimate by 2.4% to 56.54 million bags, from a September estimate of 55.20 million bags.
Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world's largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices. Vietnam's National Statistics Office reported on January 5 that Vietnam's 2025 coffee exports jumped by +17.5% y/y to 1.58 MMT.
Increased Vietnamese coffee supplies are negative for prices. Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb +6% y/y to 1.76 MMT, or 29.4 million bags, a 4-year high. Also, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) said on October 24 that Vietnam's coffee output in 2025/26 will be 10% higher than the previous crop year if weather conditions remain favorable. Vietnam is the world's largest producer of robusta coffee.
The recovery in ICE coffee inventories is negative for prices. ICE-monitored arabica inventories fell to a 1.75-year low of 396,513 bags on November 18, but recovered to a 3.25-month high of 461,829 bags on January 7. Also, ICE robusta coffee inventories fell to a 13-month low of 4,012 lots on December 10 but recovered to a 2-month high of 4,662 lots last Monday.
Shrinking Brazilian coffee exports are supportive of coffee prices. Cecafe reported last Monday that Brazil's total Dec green coffee exports fell -18.4% to 2.86 million bags, with arabica coffee exports down -10% y/y to 2.6 million bags and robusta coffee exports down -61% y/y to 222,147 bags.
Below-average rainfall in Brazil, the world's largest arabica producer, is supportive for coffee prices.
Signs of tighter global coffee supplies are supportive of prices, as the International Coffee Organization (ICO) on November 7 reported that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (Oct-Sep) fell -0.3% y/y to 138.658 million bags.
The USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) bi-annual report on December 18 projected that world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase by +2.0% y/y to a record 178.848 million bags, with a -4.7% decrease in arabica production to 95.515 million bags and a +10.9% increase in robusta production to 83.333 million bags. FAS forecasted that Brazil's 2025/26 coffee production will decline by -3.1% y/y to 63 million bags and that Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee output will rise by 6.2% y/y to a 4-year high of 30.8 million bags. FAS forecasts that 2025/26 ending stocks will fall by -5.4% to 20.148 million bags from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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