What Happened?
Shares of restaurant company Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ: CAKE) jumped 3.1% in the morning session after the stock moved higher amid a broad market rally driven by renewed hopes for lower interest rates. The positive sentiment swept through Wall Street as investors increased their bets that the Federal Reserve would cut its main interest rate in September. This optimism was reflected in the bond market, where Treasury yields fell. Lower interest rates are often seen as a positive for consumer-focused companies like restaurants, as they can encourage more consumer spending and reduce borrowing costs.
After the initial pop the shares cooled down to $62.74, up 1% from previous close.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
The Cheesecake Factory’s shares are somewhat volatile and have had 14 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 21 days ago when the stock dropped 3% on the news that a surprisingly weak U.S. jobs report and renewed fears over international trade policy fueled concerns about a slowdown in consumer spending. The July 2025 jobs report revealed that hiring slowed dramatically, with the U.S. economy adding only 73,000 new jobs—the weakest gain in over two years. Furthermore, job numbers for May and June were revised significantly lower, suggesting the labor market is weaker than previously thought. This is a critical headwind for restaurants, as a shaky job market often leads consumers to cut back on discretionary spending like dining out. Compounding the issue, the announcement of new U.S. tariffs on trading partners has heightened fears of inflation and a broader economic slowdown, prompting investors to sell shares in consumer-facing sectors.
The Cheesecake Factory is up 29.4% since the beginning of the year, and at $62.74 per share, it is trading close to its 52-week high of $68.51 from July 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of The Cheesecake Factory’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $2,301.
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