Commodities Are Stuck in a Vicious Cycle
November 05, 2015 at 12:45 PM EST
Unlike the business cycle, which tends to complete a full rotation every six years on average, commodities follow their own pattern which can last well over a decade. Since 1894, there have been four recorded commodity super cycles, with the last one beginning in 1999 and peaking in 2010. Excluding oil, which operates separately due to strict control over supply by organizations like OPEC, the real prices of all commodities tend to move together, with their peaks correlating with the peak of the global economy. But commodities have fallen far from the highs they previously held and don’t appear to have any positive catalysts to propel them higher. They seem to be stuck and there are many forces at work holding them at bay.