CHICAGO, July 09, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Numerator, a data and technology company serving the market research space, today announced new findings from the latest installment of its Research-on-Research series, highlighting the risk brands face when using claimed survey data. Building on Numerator’s 2024 study, which revealed over half of consumers inaccurately recall brands they have purchased, the new analysis measures the “Recall Gap,” revealing discrepancies between consumers’ stated behaviors in surveys and their verified purchases, and identifying categories most vulnerable to these inaccuracies.
Leveraging Numerator’s Total Commerce Panel, with 200,000 US households that meet rigorous behavioral reporting standards, the study surveyed over 1,000 verified buyers per category across 40 consumer goods categories. The results show that a majority of respondents misreport critical business metrics, including purchase recency, frequency, and spending levels.
Key findings from the study include:
- Overall recall is low: Only one-third (33%) of respondents accurately recalled their purchase information across all tested metrics, and only 27% accurately recalled their last purchase date.
- Frequency is hardest to recall: Just 30% accurately recalled how frequently they purchased a category.
- Spend per trip is inaccurately reported the vast majority of the time: Only 39% of respondents could accurately recall how much they spend per trip.
- Confidence does not equal accuracy: Over half (56%) of respondents were highly confident yet significantly inaccurate in their recall.
- High-risk categories identified: Categories with the greatest risk for misreported purchase habits include Cookie Snack Packs, Laundry Cleaning Additives, and Electrolyte Solutions, according to Numerator’s Risk Index.
These findings indicate substantial business risks when relying solely on traditional recall-based survey methods:
- Inaccurate purchase frequency can distort inventory forecasting, causing misalignment in supply chains.
- Spend per trip errors may misguide promotional and pricing strategies, impacting profitability.
- Flawed total spend estimates can skew long-term demand forecasting and resource allocation.
"Verified purchase data should now be a standard requirement for all serious consumer research," said Eric Belcher, CEO, Numerator. “The industry faces rampant fraudulent bot responses impersonating real consumers, and we now know that even genuine human respondents fail more than they succeed in attempting to accurately recall their purchases. Together, these flaws dangerously misrepresent the consumer. Numerator's Verified Voices solution eliminates these significant quality issues, enabling a true understanding of consumer sentiment and behavior."
About Numerator:
Numerator is a data and tech company bringing speed and scale to market research. Numerator blends first-party data from over 1 million US households with advanced technology to provide 360-degree consumer understanding for the market research industry that has been slow to change. Headquartered in Chicago, IL, Numerator has 5,400 employees worldwide; 80 of the top 100 CPG brands’ manufacturers are Numerator clients.
Bob Richter Numerator 212-802-8588 press@numerator.com
