RXO Releases the Latest Curve Freight Market Forecast

May 22, 2025 at 08:30 AM EDT

In the first quarter, while truckload spot rates continued to rise year-over-year, the growth rate eased from the fourth quarter of 2024

Spot rates, in both year-over-year and absolute terms, will likely continue to be inflationary

Today, RXO (NYSE: RXO), a leading provider of asset-light transportation solutions, released the latest update to its proprietary Curve truckload market forecast.

The Q2 Curve update, which recaps first-quarter performance, covers macroeconomic indicators and trends driving the truckload market, and provides a second-quarter freight market forecast, indicates a sustained year-over-year increase in truckload rates in the first quarter. However, the rate of this growth decelerated when compared to the fourth quarter.

Highlights from the report include:

Spot rates increased 9.1% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2025, slightly less than the 11.6% reading in the fourth quarter of 2024.
After initial volatility in January from post-holiday shipping and weather events, truckload capacity and spot rates receded to their pre-peak season baseline.
Looking ahead, typical summer shipping trends should drive some incremental spot market volatility in the second quarter.

“The market calmed throughout the first quarter, which we expected given typical seasonality,” said Corey Klujsza, vice president of pricing and procurement at RXO. “The real question is, will we see sustained momentum when it comes to rate increases as we get deeper into the busier summer shipping season? Regardless, carriers are under tremendous cost pressure from prolonged low rates, and though freight demand may not spike, there is still potential for a tighter capacity environment later in the year.”

Jared Weisfeld, chief strategy officer at RXO, said, “Shippers have had to contend with a tremendous amount of uncertainty throughout the first quarter and into the second. They’re employing many different strategies in response. They’re also deciding whether to increase inventory and whether there will be enough demand to warrant that inventory build-up. While we’re operating in a very fluid and uncertain environment, de-escalating trade tensions provide shippers with an opportunity to strategically increase inventory and plan for the second half of the year.”

To read the full second-quarter Curve report, visit rxo.com/resources/research/us-truckload-market-guide.

The Curve exemplifies RXO’s commitment to providing market-based, data-driven insights that help shippers and carriers navigate the dynamic truckload market.

About RXO

RXO (NYSE: RXO) is a leading provider of asset-light transportation solutions. RXO offers tech-enabled truck brokerage services together with complementary solutions including managed transportation and last mile delivery. The company combines massive capacity and cutting-edge technology to move freight efficiently through supply chains across North America. The company is headquartered in Charlotte, N.C. Visit RXO.com for more information and connect with RXO on LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, X and YouTube.