Security Benefit’s RIA Economic Outlook Index Rises to 60 as Advisors Grow More Optimistic About the Economic Environment

June 24, 2025 at 09:01 AM EDT

More than half of advisors believe inflation will remain between 2-2.9% in light of further tariff negotiations, though nearly half believe a moderate recession could be in sight.

Registered investment advisors (RIAs) are feeling better about inflation according to the latest RIA Economic Outlook Index released by Security Benefit in partnership with Greenwald Research. For Q2, 6 in 10 now expect inflation to be under 3% in the next twelve months. This tracks with the latest reading of the personal consumption expenditure price index which dropped to 2.1% in April, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.¹

With the sharp increase in market volatility since President Trump re-entered office earlier this year, advisors have varying outlooks on his impact on the economy. The survey found that 45% of RIAs feel more positively since he entered office, another 17% feel about the same, with 38% who feel more negatively. Interestingly, advisors with 20+ years of tenure were more likely to feel positive about the economy, 53% versus just 28% for those with 3-19 years in the business.

“Optimism rose in the second quarter, with our Economic Outlook Index increasing to 60,” said Mike Reidy, National Sales Manager, RIA Channel at Security Benefit. “That’s up 5 points from last quarter. However, advisors still see potential risks on the horizon as almost half (45%) believe there is at least a moderate likelihood the economy will be in a recession in the next 12 months.” This a strong increase, up from 29% of RIAs in Q1, meaning some economic anxieties remain.

Clients are diversifying

As clients look to diversify their assets, almost half of advisors (47%) report increasing allocations to international equities, while three in ten are increasing allocations to U.S. equities. Almost one-third (30%) of advisors are not making tactical changes to their clients’ portfolios, and another 33% have already made changes.

Though half of RIAs (53%) have cited increased interests from clients in downside protection solutions like fixed index annuities or other structured products, since the start of 2025, only one in four (27%) are increasing allocations toward them in lieu of economic pressures.

“The uptick in RIAs fielding interest from clients in downside protection solutions is a healthy sign,” noted Reidy. “If economic pressures deepen and volatility spikes again, building downside protection into any diversification strategy is fundamental to ensuring asset protection in an uncertain market environment.”

Trump’s tariff policies have remained top of mind for many, as 47% of advisors believe they are the biggest risk to the economy over the next six months with geopolitical tensions (40%) and inflation (34%) not far behind.

Social Security claims are rising and so are client anxieties

While geopolitical tensions topped the list of client inquiries in Q2, a close second was social security.

According to recent data from the Social Security Administration² May’s volume of Social Security claims was 13% higher in the current fiscal year than the same period last year. With this rise in claims, Social Security anxieties may be a reason for many retirees to lock in their fixed income solutions.

Looking beyond Social Security, at products like annuities that can provide clients with flexible income options, could go a long way in delivering steady income as they get to and enter retirement.

Methodology

In May 2025, Greenwald Research surveyed 100 registered investment advisors from across the United States, each managing significant assets and directly interacting with clients. The online questionnaire collected crucial data on RIAs’ business practices, economic outlook, financial product usage, and client demographics. This method blended quantitative and qualitative insights, capturing key trends within the financial advisory industry.

About Security Benefit

SBL Holdings, Inc. (“Security Benefit”), through its subsidiary Security Benefit Life Insurance Company (SBLIC), a Kansas-domiciled insurance company that has been in business for 133 years, is a leader in the U.S. retirement market. Security Benefit together with its affiliates offers products in a full range of retirement markets and wealth segments for employers and individuals and held $55.1 billion in assets under management as of December 31, 2024. Security Benefit, an Eldridge Industries business, continues its mission of helping Americans To and Through Retirement^®. Learn more at www.securitybenefit.com and follow us on LinkedIn, Facebook, and X.

About Greenwald Research

Greenwald Research is a leading independent research and consulting partner to the health and wealth industries that applies quantitative and qualitative research methods to produce insights that help companies stay competitive and navigate industry change. Leveraging deep subject matter expertise and a trusted consultative approach since 1985, Greenwald offers comprehensive services to answer strategic business questions.

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Annuities are issued by SBLIC in all states except New York.

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¹ https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2025

² Social Security Administration (SSA) Monthly Data for Retirement Insurance Applications: https://www.ssa.gov/data/retirement-insurance-online-apps-2012-onward.html