Buyers, Take Note: Mortgage Rates Are Falling, Home-Price Growth Is Cooling and Supply Is Outpacing Demand

August 07, 2025 at 08:00 AM EDT

Redfin economists say serious homebuyers have a window of opportunity to lock in a mortgage rate, as rates could fluctuate as more economic data is released in the coming weeks

House hunters got some relief this week as the daily average mortgage rate dropped to its lowest level in nearly a year after a softer-than-expected jobs report. That’s according to a new r epo r t from Redfin, the real estate brokerage powered by Rocket.

A homebuyer on a $3,000 monthly budget can afford a $458,750 home with a 6.55% mortgage rate, roughly the daily average on Wednesday; that buyer has gained roughly $20,000 in purchasing power since mortgage rates hit a recent peak of 7.08% in May.

There are a few other bright spots for house hunters this week:

Home-price growth is losing steam. The median U.S. asking price rose just 2.3% year over year during the four weeks ending August 3, one of the smallest increases in two years. Sellers have started pricing lower in response to the buyer’s market; Redfin economists predict sale prices will fall 1% by the end of the year. Additionally, just about one-quarter (26.6%) of homes are selling above asking price, down from 31% a year ago.
There are more home sellers than buyers in the market. The total number of homes for sale is up 8.5% year over year, while pending sales are down 1.2%.
Many sellers are willing to negotiate. Redfin agents in many parts of the country, including the Bay Area, Phoenix, Washington, D.C. and coastal Florida, report that a lot of sellers are open to negotiating with buyers. Some are accepting offers under asking price or providing freebies to sweeten the deal, like money for closing costs or repairs, to get their home offloaded.

House hunters should keep in mind that the window of opportunity for buyers could be short. New listings have lost steam, staying essentially flat year over year, as would-be sellers realize they may not get the price they want for their home. Additionally, lower mortgage rates could bring more buyers and more competition. Mortgage-purchase applications have already increased, rising 2% week over week.

“Serious homebuyers should consider taking this window of opportunity to act fast and lock in a mortgage rate at the lowest level we’ve seen since last October,” said Chen Zhao, Redfin’s head of economics research. “Last week’s soft jobs report ups the chances of the Fed cutting interest rates in September. The market’s anticipation of that cut has already pushed mortgage rates down, and there’s no guarantee they’ll fall further. There’s a chance mortgage rates could fluctuate when more economic data is released in the coming weeks.”

For Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.

Leading indicators

Indicators of homebuying demand and activity
	Value (if applicable)	Recent change	Year-over-year change	Source
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	6.57% (Aug. 6)	10-month low	Down from 6.86%	Mortgage News Daily
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	6.72% (week ending July 31)	Up slightly from a 3-month low of 6.67% hit 4 weeks earlier	Essentially unchanged	Freddie Mac
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)		Up 2% from a week earlier (as of week ending Aug. 1)	Up 18%	Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index		Up 3% from a month earlier (as of week ending Aug. 3)	Up 2%	A measure of tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents
Touring activity		Up 28% from the start of the year (as of Aug. 2)	At this time last year, it was up 13% from the start of 2024	ShowingTime, a home touring technology company

Key housing-market data

U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending Aug. 3, 2025 Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and are based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.
	Four weeks ending Aug. 3, 2025	Year-over-year change	Notes
Median sale price	$396,991	2.1%	Roughly $1,800 shy of all-time high
Median asking price	$400,850	2.3%
Median monthly mortgage payment	$2,667 at a 6.72% mortgage rate	4.4%
Pending sales	85,528	-1.2%
New listings	95,571	0.4%
Active listings	1,159,790	8.5%	Smallest increase since February 2024
Months of supply	3.9	+0.5 pts.	4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions
Share of homes off market in two weeks	32.3%	Down from 36%
Median days on market	40	+6 days
Share of homes sold above list price	26.6%	Down from 30%
Average sale-to-list price ratio	98.8%	Down from 99.4%

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending Aug. 3, 2025 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.
	Metros with biggest year-over-year increases	Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases	Notes
Median sale price	Cleveland (13.2%) Detroit (9%) Montgomery County, PA (7.6%) Warren, MI (6.1%) Nassau County, NY (6.1%)	Oakland, CA (-5%) Fort Worth, TX (-2.8%) Jacksonville, FL (-2.8%) Houston (-2.8%) Austin, TX (-1.6%)	Declined in 11 metros
Pending sales	Phoenix (13%) Virginia Beach, VA (8.6%) Austin, TX (7.5%) Pittsburgh (7.4%) Columbus, OH (6.6%)	Miami (-15.9%) Portland, OR (-13.5%) Tampa, FL (-11.8%) Las Vegas (-11.6%) Orlando, FL (-11.1%)
New listings	Philadelphia (9.8%) Cleveland (8.9%) Montgomery County, PA (8.7%) Milwaukee (7.6%) Washington, D.C. (5.8%)	Portland, OR (-17%) Tampa, FL (-15.4%) Orlando, FL (-12.6%) Indianapolis (-11.4%) Jacksonville, FL (-10.6%)

To view the full report, including charts, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-mortgage-rates-fall-price-growth-slow

About Redfin

Redfin is a technology-driven real estate company with the country's most-visited real estate brokerage website. As part of Rocket Companies (NYSE: RKT), Redfin is creating an integrated homeownership platform from search to close to make the dream of homeownership more affordable and accessible for everyone. Redfin’s clients can see homes first with on-demand tours, easily apply for a home loan with Rocket Mortgage, and save thousands in fees while working with a top local agent.

You can find more information about Redfin and get the latest housing market data and research at Redfin.com/news. For more information about Rocket Companies, visit RocketCompanies.com.