Kenco Survey: Inflation, Tariffs Driving Holiday Spending Cuts for More Than a Quarter of Shoppers

September 18, 2025 at 09:00 AM EDT

Many consumers willing to pay more for delivery windows, less for returns

Economic concerns will persist into the 2025 holiday shopping season, leading 28% of consumers to lower their spend – an 11% increase over 2024. Fifty-eight percent said product pricing/inflation is their main concern heading into the holidays, compared to the second-place challenge – product availability – at just 16%.

These findings and more are highlighted in the 2025 eCommerce Peak Season Pulse from Kenco, one of North America’s leading third-party logistics (3PL) providers. Kenco surveyed North American consumers to gather insights on the attitudes driving shoppers in Q4 and how they may impact the supply chain – from when and how they plan to make purchases, to their expectations around shipping, returns and fees.

Nearly 9 in 10 consumers said they’re concerned international trade issues, ranging from tariffs to shipping route disruptions, will impact holiday shopping. Fifty-six percent said they believe these complications will be a primary reason for higher prices; 57% said they believe inflation will be a top factor as well.

“Deal” is the key word for the 2025 holiday season – there’s going to be greater demand for the retailers that offer the best deal possible,” said Frank Loewen, Senior Vice President of Logistics Operations at Kenco. “Retailers and their logistics partners should also look for meaningful value-added offerings to offset higher prices, such as more economical shipping choices and simpler return options.”

In fact, 75% of survey respondents agreed they would choose a free, slower shipping option over a payment-required, faster shipping option. Likewise, easy returns were the most influential shipping incentive in determining whether a consumer buys from a specific retailer (57%). Seventy-two percent said free return shipping is the most important return-related incentive a brand can offer.

Consumers also like shopping with brands that provide deeper visibility into the delivery process. Fifty-eight percent said they like to see real-time map tracking, while 36% want an estimated delivery countdown and 37% want delivery photo confirmation. In fact, despite many respondents’ preferences for cheaper shipping options, 51% said they’d be willing to pay a fee to guarantee a specific delivery window.

“Don’t underestimate the power of convenience, even in a tighter economy,” Loewen said. “Especially if they’re purchasing a last-minute gift, buyers want to know exactly when it will be at their doorsteps – and even want control over that timeframe. That’s why retailers should make end-to-end supply chain visibility a priority when determining new projects with their logistics partners.”

To review the full survey results, visit https://kencogroup.com/reports-and-insights/2025-ecommerce-report-peak-season-insights/.

ABOUT KENCO

Kenco supplies integrated logistics solutions that include distribution, eCommerce fulfillment, comprehensive transportation management and material handling equipment services, and customized supply chain solutions – all designed for Operational Excellence. Kenco continues to be a leading 3rd party logistics provider in North America, building lasting customer relationships for over 75 years. Kenco’s focus is to support customers’ business needs through connected solutions and to redefine third-party logistics by offering innovative solutions.