Recent Quotes View Full List My Watchlist Create Watchlist Indicators DJI Nasdaq Composite SPX Gold Crude Oil EL&P Market Index Markets Stocks ETFs Tools Overview News Currencies International Treasuries Why the breadth divergence may not be bearish By: Humble Student of the Markets June 23, 2024 at 13:40 PM EDT Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here. My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.The latest signals of each model are as follows:Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*Trend Model signal: Bullish (Last changed from “neutral” on 28-Jul-2023)*Trading model: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 23-May-2024)** The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here. A case of bad breadthAnxiety has been increasing among the technical analysis community over the blatant instances of narrow market leadership and negative breadth divergence. Even as the S&P 500 rose to new all-time highs, the Advance-Decline Line, regardless of how it is measured, is exhibiting a series of negative divergences. Even though these breadth divergences are concerning, they are not necessarily bearish signals. Here’s why.The full post can be found here. Data & News supplied by www.cloudquote.io Stock quotes supplied by Barchart Quotes delayed at least 20 minutes. By accessing this page, you agree to the following Privacy Policy and Terms and Conditions.
Why the breadth divergence may not be bearish By: Humble Student of the Markets June 23, 2024 at 13:40 PM EDT Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here. My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.The latest signals of each model are as follows:Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*Trend Model signal: Bullish (Last changed from “neutral” on 28-Jul-2023)*Trading model: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 23-May-2024)** The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here. A case of bad breadthAnxiety has been increasing among the technical analysis community over the blatant instances of narrow market leadership and negative breadth divergence. Even as the S&P 500 rose to new all-time highs, the Advance-Decline Line, regardless of how it is measured, is exhibiting a series of negative divergences. Even though these breadth divergences are concerning, they are not necessarily bearish signals. Here’s why.The full post can be found here.
