Recent Quotes View Full List My Watchlist Create Watchlist Indicators DJI Nasdaq Composite SPX Gold Crude Oil EL&P Market Index Markets Stocks ETFs Tools Overview News Currencies International Treasuries 4 reasons why you should be tactically bullish By: Humble Student of the Markets August 18, 2024 at 13:11 PM EDT Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here. My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below. The latest signals of each model are as follows:Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*Trend Model signal: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 26-Jul-2024)*Trading model: Bullish (Last changed from “neutral” on 25-Jul-2024)** The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here. A “good overbought” advance?The rebound off the August 5 panic bottom has shown an astounding level of price momentum. The S&P 500 printed a William O’Neil Follow Through Day, which is an indication of strong positive price momentum with a 1.7% advance on higher volume than the previous day. It went on to break out through its 50 dma and a falling trend line by gapping up through those levels. The next test to exceed the bearish engulfing pattern on August 1.The market appears to be on its way to start a “good overbought” advance. Here are some other reasons why this rally could continue.The full post can be found here. Data & News supplied by www.cloudquote.io Stock quotes supplied by Barchart Quotes delayed at least 20 minutes. By accessing this page, you agree to the following Privacy Policy and Terms and Conditions.
4 reasons why you should be tactically bullish By: Humble Student of the Markets August 18, 2024 at 13:11 PM EDT Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here. My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below. The latest signals of each model are as follows:Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*Trend Model signal: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 26-Jul-2024)*Trading model: Bullish (Last changed from “neutral” on 25-Jul-2024)** The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here. A “good overbought” advance?The rebound off the August 5 panic bottom has shown an astounding level of price momentum. The S&P 500 printed a William O’Neil Follow Through Day, which is an indication of strong positive price momentum with a 1.7% advance on higher volume than the previous day. It went on to break out through its 50 dma and a falling trend line by gapping up through those levels. The next test to exceed the bearish engulfing pattern on August 1.The market appears to be on its way to start a “good overbought” advance. Here are some other reasons why this rally could continue.The full post can be found here.
