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Grain Elevator Outlook: Strong Dollar, Policy Uncertainty Could Slow Demand for U.S. Corn and Soybeans

By: via GlobeNewswire

DENVER, Dec. 05, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- U.S. farmers harvested the second-largest corn and soybean crops on record this fall, improving carries in the futures market and lifting the margin outlook for grain elevators storing corn and soybeans. Prices of both commodities have fallen to four-year lows, sparking strong demand, both domestically and on the export front. An acceleration of U.S. biofuel production, combined with strong livestock feed usage, has fueled domestic demand. A robust export program has also helped clear the abundant U.S. corn and soybean inventories. 

However, the exhaustive pace of U.S. corn and soybean usage faces multiple headwinds, according to a new report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange. The U.S. dollar is widely expected to continue strengthening, which will increase the cost of U.S. goods for foreign buyers. And a potential trade dispute under the new administration would likely slow exports to key trading partners like China and Mexico. 

“Uncertainty over biofuel policy under the incoming administration also raises questions about the durability of domestic demand for corn-based ethanol and soybeans used for biodiesel and renewable diesel,” said Tanner Ehmke, lead grain and oilseed economist with CoBank. “For grain elevators, all these factors improve the profit outlook for storage via weakening buy basis in the cash market and a widening of futures spreads for both corn and soybeans.” 

The export market outlook for U.S. corn and soybeans is most at risk in the months ahead. The combination of ample supplies in the U.S., record crops from South America and retaliatory tariffs would cause a sudden drag on exports. U.S. corn and soybean exports would need to be rerouted, slowing the overall export pace and increasing the cost of shipping into smaller markets. The robust U.S. livestock sector portends continued strength in feed demand, although not enough to absorb potential losses in exports.

The weakening margin outlook for biofuels and the heightened policy concerns for all biofuels under the new administration risks slowing ethanol demand for corn and crush demand for soybeans. Domestic demand for soybeans remains robust with soybean crush capacity still expanding to meet the rising demand for renewable diesel. Additional crush capacity is slated to come online in the months ahead, but growth in the market is maturing as profit margins for renewable diesel production decline. 

“The combination of growing global supplies of corn and soybeans, slowing exports and some reduction in domestic demand will incentivize storage, with grain elevators benefiting from bigger carries in the futures market and cheaper basis in the months ahead,” Ehmke said. 

Read the report, Corn and Soybean Elevator Outlook: Strong Dollar and Policy Uncertainty Cloud Outlook for Demand.

About CoBank
CoBank is a cooperative bank serving vital industries across rural America. The bank provides loans, leases, export financing and other financial services to agribusinesses and rural power, water and communications providers in all 50 states. The bank also provides wholesale loans and other financial services to affiliated Farm Credit associations serving more than 77,000 farmers, ranchers and other rural borrowers in 23 states around the country.

CoBank is a member of the Farm Credit System, a nationwide network of banks and retail lending associations chartered to support the borrowing needs of U.S. agriculture, rural infrastructure and rural communities. Headquartered outside Denver, Colorado, CoBank serves customers from regional banking centers across the U.S. and also maintains an international representative office in Singapore.


Corporate Communications
CoBank
800-542-8072
news@cobank.com

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